AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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GACC: China's alumina exports surge 64% Y-o-Y in Jan-Jul
China exported a total of 1.57 million tonnes of alumina, including metallurgical-grade and other types, during January-July 2025, shooting up by 64.3 per cent from the same period last year, according to new data released by the country's General Administration of Customs (GACC). Image source: https://www.renwa-abrasive.com/ In July alone, Chinese alumina exports reached 229,448 tonnes, marking a 56.4 per cent year-on-year jump and a 34.2 per cent on-month increase, the GACC data showed. Most of the July shipments from China were supplied to Rusal, a Russian aluminium giant based in Moscow, according to market insiders. Russia, Oman, and South Korea ranked as China's top three export destinations last month, accounting for 88.3 per cent, 4.8 per cent, and 2 per cent of total exports,...
Rising costs vs rising revenues – the paradox of the new 50% steel and aluminium derivative tariffs
Six months into Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff regime and it seems to be a never-ending roller-coaster journey with new sets coming in. So, what’s the update this time? More than 400 additional aluminium and steel product categories have come under the fold of 50 per cent tariffs. What are included? Auto parts, auto components, railcars construction materials, wind turbines specialty chemicals, and household items like refrigerators, freezers, dryers, and furniture components. In short, anything that contains or is contained in aluminium and steel. Brian Baldwin, vice president of customs at Kuehne + Nagel International AG, quipped anything and everything that looks shiny, metallic, or remotely like aluminium or steel, is included in the new list of product categories hit by tariffs. The new...
Aluminium powers India-Japan alliance
There is a long history of economic relationships between India and Japan. The key events that fortified this relationship were Japan's contributions to India in the steel sector in the 1950s and Japan's direct investments in the IT sector in the 1990s, and now Japan is beginning to depend on India for aluminium sector supply. India is developing as a reliable provider for Japan's aluminium supply. In 2024, Japan imported nearly USD 337 million (UN COMTRADE) worth of aluminium from India, one of the top four suppliers. This has not happened by accident. Changing geopolitical scenarios, sanctions that included Russia and the need for cleaner production have opened up new space for India's manufacturers. Why aluminium matters to Japan Japan's major industries, comprising transport,...
India’s aluminium push vs renewable energy mandate: Can both goals align?
Just when the Indian aluminium industry is prioritising its production, aiming to increase it by sixfold to achieve more than 30 million tonnes per annum of output from the present 4.2 million tonnes, the mandate issued by Renewable Consumption Obligation seems to have dampened the spirit because the mandate says the captive power consumers must derive 29.91 per cent of electricity from renewable sources and scale it up to 43.33 per cent by FY2030. On paper, this mandate is a well-meaning policy designed to support the Indian manufacturing industry to decarbonise its production, but in case of aluminium, some are of the opinion that it contradicts the country’s ambitious production dream and may even stall the progress it seeks to accelerate. Critics warn that aluminium smelting requires...
Tariff tsunami hits Karnataka’s aluminium extrusion industry
Karnataka’s aluminium extrusion sector, once a steady contributor to India’s industrial ecosystem, is facing its toughest test in decades. A convergence of global trade shocks, inclusive of but not limited to the 50 per cent tariff imposed by the United States under President Trump, along with a steady influx of cheap Chinese imports, has left extrusion units in the state squeezed from both ends. Image source: https://rupiko.in/ For an industry heavily dependent on exports and sensitive to cost fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and severe. India exported nearly 200,000 tonnes of aluminium to the US in FY2024, valued at USD 894 million. Among the cumulative volumes, India’s downstream export volume to the US accounted for 84,850 tonnes. It inflated from 53,633 tonnes in 2020 (a...
From Asia to Africa: are new refining hubs redrawing the alumina map?
Alumina production in Asia (including China) and Africa continued to rise in the first half of 2025, but fresh data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) indicates signs of cooling by mid-year. With China still dominating global output, new projects in Indonesia, India, and Africa are reshaping the supply landscape, as governments in bauxite-rich regions tighten rules to encourage local refining. In the first half of 2025, alumina production across Asia and Africa reached 49.07 million tonnes, a 6.1 per cent increase from 46.26 million tonnes in the same period of 2024 and a 10.5 per cent rise from 44.41 million tonnes in 2023. The year began on a strong note, with output including China at 8.58 million tonnes in January, but volumes slipped to 8.03 million tonnes by June,...
Oscilante, mas estável: taxa de reciclagem de latas de alumínio no Brasil cai 2,7%, mas permanece acima de 95% há 15 anos
O sistema de reciclagem bem estruturado do Brasil mais uma vez impulsionou a taxa de reciclagem de latas de alumínio do país para impressionantes 97,3%. Há mais de 15 anos, o Brasil mantém consistentemente uma taxa superior a 95%, resultado não apenas de uma forte infraestrutura de reciclagem, mas também de um profundo senso de compromisso com a sustentabilidade, que incentiva o consumo de latas de alumínio. Em 2024, as vendas de latas no Brasil cresceram 7,6%, totalizando 34,8 bilhões de unidades, contra 32,3 bilhões no ano anterior. Por trás desse cenário, o progresso econômico constante também é um fator que impulsiona o consumo de latas de alumínio. Segundo o Banco Mundial, o Brasil, com uma população de 205,3 milhões, registrou um PIB per capita real de US$ 10.616 em 2024, contra US$...
Barter creeps back into trade as Russia and China rewrite the rules
History has repeated itself as Russia, after the 1990s, has returned to barter deals owing to geopolitical predicaments. Not a generic practice yet, but the initiation of barter deals commenced at the Kazan Expo business forum. Chinese companies cited settlement issues and Russian demands that they bring production to Russia as major issues hindering the development of bilateral trade. Image Source: Wikipedia “We offer innovative cooperation models aimed at reducing settlement risks,” Xu Xinjing from Hainan Longpan Oilfield Technology Co. Ltd told Reuters through a translator, adding that “we offer a model of barter trade.” In exchange for the power equipment, his company wants to receive Russian shipbuilding metal alloys like aluminium and steel. “In the current conditions of limited...
Global Aluminium Ingot Prices tumble in Q2 2025 amid tariffs, oversupply, and weak demand
Aluminium markets endured a turbulent first half of 2025, with ingot prices slumping sharply in the second quarter across North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe. Oversupply, sluggish downstream demand, and rising inventories all weighed heavily, while US tariff policy further unsettled trade flows. The pressure intensified in July as Washington doubled tariffs on aluminium imports to 50 per cent, a move that disrupted supply chains and reshaped price dynamics. North America: tariffs, stockpiling, and demand weakness In North America, the Aluminium Ingot Price Index fell nearly 18 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first, reflecting the combined impact of oversupply and weaker demand. Importers had accelerated stockpiling ahead of the Section 232 tariff hike in June, leaving...
Shaky but steady: Brazil’s aluminium can recycling rate falls 2.7% but stands above 95% for 15 years
Brazil’s well-established recycling system has once again propelled the country’s aluminium can recycling rate to an impressive 97.3 per cent. For more than 15 years, Brazil has consistently maintained a recycling rate above 95 per cent. This achievement is not only the result of a strong recycling infrastructure but also of a deep sense of commitment towards sustainability that encourages people consume aluminium cans. In 2024, aluminium can sales in Brazil rose 7.6 per cent, amounting to 34.8 billion units versus 32.3 billion units. Behind this all, steady economic progress is also a factor that drives aluminium can consumption. According to the World Bank, Brazil, with a population of 205.3 million, recorded a real GDP per capita of USD 10,616 in 2024, up from USD 10,377.59 in 2023. In...
US expands 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum to more derivative products
The Trump administration announced on August 15 that it will broaden the scope of its 50 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, extending the duties to hundreds of steel and aluminum derivative products with the metal content starting from August 18. According to a Federal Register notice, the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security has added 407 product codes to the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule. These codes cover goods containing steel or aluminum, which will now be subject to the 50 per cent tariff rate based on their steel and aluminum content. Non-steel or non-aluminum components of these products will continue to be taxed at previously established tariff levels for imports from specific countries, the notice clarified. The US President Donald Trump in his...
Why is ENERGY MIX the decisive factor for aluminium’s cradle-to-gate footprint?
The aluminium industry has long sold itself as the ‘metal of the future’, well known for being lightweight, infinitely recyclable, and indispensable for decarbonisation in transport, construction and packaging. Yet, when scrutinised from a life-cycle perspective, the path from bauxite to ingot reveals an environmental footprint that is both energy-heavy and highly variable depending on geography. A landmark cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) conducted by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) brings forth one blunt truth, i.e., electricity supply is the single biggest determinant of aluminium’s environmental impact. Image source: https://www.researchgate.net/ The study, built on IAI’s global survey data and modelled using GaBi software, measured six core impact categories...
Australia’s solar success is creating scrap heaps — can recycling catch up?
Australia’s clean energy surge is powering homes and reshaping skylines with solar projects and modern construction — but behind the progress lies a growing waste challenge, as aluminium scrap and discarded solar panels continue to pile up. Each year, an estimated 4 million solar panels are removed from rooftops across the country, yet less than 5 per cent are recycled according to The Smart Energy Council (SEC). Without urgent intervention, experts warn solar waste could nearly double in the next five years — from 59,340 tonnes in 2025 to 91,165 tonnes by 2030. Solar panels are taken down due to malfunctions, performance drops, or early upgrades, while fragile roofs and safety regulations further contribute, often resulting in panels being removed well before their expected lifespan. One...
Ford’s $2B EV investment & 5% revenue boost sparks hope for downstream aluminium amidst market turmoil
In a situation where companies like Novelis are facing the brunt of business closures and job cuts, US-headquartered Ford Motor is hitting the reset button on its EV strategy with a bold new plan, creating hope for the downstream aluminium industry in the region. The automaker has unveiled a USD 2 billion investment in its Louisville, KY, Assembly plant, setting the stage for a lineup of next-generation, more affordable electric vehicles by 2027. This move signals optimism for the downstream aluminium industry, especially in the US region. At the heart of this transformation is the Ford Universal EV Platform, which is set to power a range of next-generation, more affordable electric vehicles by 2027. However, Ford’s push into the EV sector is not without challenges. The automaker is...
Tariffs and trade shifts: how US policy split aluminium markets in China and the UK
When aluminium prices slipped on both the Shanghai and London exchanges this week, it wasn’t just another market wobble, it was the latest chapter in a trade saga that has stretched over seven years. What began with a modest tariff in 2018 has grown into a protectionist wall, reshaping how the world’s two biggest aluminium players, China and the UK sell into the American market. On August 18, US tariffs expanded to cover more aluminium products at a steep 50 per cent rate, just as Chinese smelters reported yet another rise in production. The result was swift: Shanghai’s most-traded aluminium contract fell 0.82 per cent to yuan 20,570 (USD 2,864 a tonne), a two-week low, while London prices slipped 0.4 per cent to USD 2,596.50. For producers, it was a reminder that tariffs and supply gluts...
Hydro to cut 750 white-collar jobs: Cost control or structural overhaul?
Norsk Hydro, the Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy giant, has announced plans to lay off about 750 white-collar employees. Just two months after signalling a temporary hiring freeze without specifying the affected business areas, the company has escalated the measure into targeted job cuts. The announcement comes against a backdrop of widespread job cuts in the aluminium industry, driven by the United States’ steep 50 per cent import tariff. In Canada, for example, Canada Metal Processing Group was forced to lay off 140 employees as a direct consequence of the tariff. Hydro, however, is largely insulated from this pressure, thanks to extensive domestic sourcing, pass-through pricing, and minimal cross-border exposure. Its Hydro Extrusions and Aluminium Metal division holds a 15–20...
India–UK CETA pact: what does it mean for trade, particularly aluminium?
India and the United Kingdom have unveiled a new trade pact poised to open fresh avenues for India's mineral sector, particularly aluminium. The pact called CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) is expected to enhance market access and competitiveness, setting the stage for strategic collaborations and export opportunities. For industry stakeholders and observers alike, this marks a potentially transformative moment worth exploring further. What is the CETA pact all about? Once which started back in January 2022 and finalised on May 6, 2025 has been finally inked on July 27, 2025, the India–UK CETA pact is hailed as a historic step to boost jobs, exports and growth. The pact grants duty-free access to about USD 6.5 billion worth of Indian exports to the UK, covering textiles,...
Top 4 industry titans powering the shift from primary to secondary aluminium production
Do you know that recycling a single tonne of aluminium can prevent up to 9 tonnes of CO2 emissions compared to the production from raw materials? As the race toward net-zero accelerates, recycled aluminium has moved from the sidelines to become a cornerstone of a resource-efficient, low-carbon future. In fact, a lot of primary aluminium producers and smelters are now investing more in the secondary aluminium business. Why are primary smelters investing more in secondary aluminium? The secondary aluminium market, long led by specialised players such as Novelis, Real Alloy, and regional recyclers, is undergoing a profound transformation. Major primary producers, including EGA, Ma'aden, Hydro, Rio Tinto, and others, are stepping into the arena, strengthening their foothold through greenfield...
