German power cost up even with 75% solar capture! Europe’s aluminium runs with 78% renewable

Europe’s renewable boom has a two-faced economy. On long, bright, windless days, it floods grids with cheap or even negative-priced power; when the weather turns, capture prices, as in the money actually earned by wind and solar assets after weighting by when they produce, recover sharply. That swing is not academic for aluminium. The metal’s primary production is among the industry’s hungriest electricity consumers, and swings in capture and wholesale power prices cut straight to smelters’ margins, investment plans and decarbonisation pathways.

S&P Global’s Platts Renewable Energy Price Explorer shows exactly this dynamic playing out through mid-2025. Solar and wind output across Europe’s five largest markets rose about 10 per cent year-on-year in July, but output eased from June’s record highs and capture prices rebounded. In Germany, solar’s capture rate surged to 75 per cent in July, the highest since February, up sharply from a Q2 average of just 51 per cent. Consequently, German solar capture prices jumped to about EUR 65 per MWh, recovering from five-year lows in May–June.

Spain told a different story! Prices started in July in bullish fashion, but windier, cooler weather in the latter half of the month eased pressure. The country’s solar volume-weighted average settled at EUR 46.76 per MWh, a touch below July 2024 but still well clear of the spring slump.