AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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RUSAL's low-carbon aluminium: the silent force behind Russia-Turkey's strategic partnership
The trade relation between the Russian Federation and Turkey dates back to the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. What began as an exchange of food, energy, and industrial goods has matured into a modern partnership defined by sustainability, technology, and green metal trade. And at the heart of this evolving relationship stands RUSAL, Russia’s major aluminium producer. How? Rusal’s low-carbon aluminium journey aligns seamlessly with Turkey’s green energy ambitions. As Turkey accelerates its energy transition and strengthens its manufacturing base, its need for sustainable materials surges. Aluminium, the metal of choice for mobility, construction, and clean energy technologies, is now a linchpin in Turkey’s industrial strategy. Turkey’s rising aluminium appetite: What’s...
BALCO wins CENVAT credit rights on bauxite mining after court verdict
Bharat Aluminium Company Limited (BALCO) has won a major tax dispute case after the Customs, Excise and Service Tax Appellate Tribunal (CESTAT) ruled in its favour, confirming that the company is entitled to claim CENVAT credit on the service tax paid for mining services used in bauxite extraction. The tribunal’s decision, delivered on November 6, 2025, dismissed the appeal filed by the Revenue Department and upheld the earlier order of the Principal Commissioner. Image for representational purpose How the dispute began The case revolved around whether BALCO could rightfully claim credit for service tax paid on mining services connected to its captive bauxite mines. The company had hired a service provider to extract bauxite, the key raw material for producing alumina, which is later used...
From scrap to strength: Why global aluminium scrap is flowing into Southeast Asia
What once filled scrapyards is now driving a regional boom. Aluminium scrap, long treated as waste, is now an important thing into Southeast Asia as factories across Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam hunt for cleaner raw material. With global industries chasing low-carbon supply chains and environmental rules tightening, the region has quietly become one of the world’s busiest recycling hubs — and business is thriving. Malaysia has taken the lead in this shift. According to UN Comtrade data aluminium scrap imports jumped 18.5 per cent in a single year — from 241.99 thousand tonnes in 2023 (worth USD 430.27 million) to 286.80 thousand tonnes in 2024, valued at USD 551.7 million. Among this United States supplied a large share, around 359,000 tonnes. By August 2025, Malaysia already...
Trade and economic loss unveiled owing to US’s longest government shutdown in history
From air traffic controllers leaving their posts to federal workers missing pay cheques for the second time in a row, the 43-day-long US federal government shutdown has taken a toll across all sectors. The crisis has dealt a double blow to the economy — first from tariffs and now from halted government operations. As trade slows, diplomatic ties fray, and even neighbouring allies distance themselves, the situation reeks of broader loss of confidence. With a national debt nearing USD 38 trillion as of early November 2025, the prolonged deadlock is now rippling through the country’s economy, trade, and transportation systems. Image for referential purposes only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Why did the government shut down in...
US Aluminium Midwest Premiums hit record high – what drives the surge and who bears the cost?
On the evening of November 10, 2025, Aluminium buyers in the US physical market witnessed history unfold as the Midwest Premium surged to an all-time high of USD 1,950.15 per tonne , striking a sharp growth of 2.87 per cent overnight from USD 1,895.72 per tonne. The Midwest Premium, a surcharge on top of the London Metal Exchange (LME) price that reflects local delivery costs, logistics, and regional supply-demand dynamics, has become a direct casualty of US protectionist measures. Analysts attribute the latest spike to the combined effects of steep tariffs and mounting supply chain distortions, which have tightened domestic availability of the metal. Surges over several months However, this hike is not an overnight affair. The rally has been building steadily since the beginning of 2025....
Europe braces for a 123% surge in flat-rolled aluminium demand — what will fill the gap left by China after anti-dumping duties?
A wave of demand is sweeping through Europe’s aluminium flat-rolled products sector, and this pace of growth is anticipated to reshape the entire market. Flat-roll products (excluding foil) have climbed from 3.95 million tonnes in 2020 to a projected 5.94 million tonnes in 2025. That’s a 50.38 per cent jump in just five years. And this is only the starting point. By 2032, consumption is expected to rise by around 123.3 per cent a surge tied from sustainability targets to changes in manufacturing techniques and the pressure to cut carbon emissions. The plates segment has been following the same upward path. In 2020, it stood at 580 thousand tonnes. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 856 thousand tonnes — a 47.6 per cent increase. Looking further ahead to 2032, consumption is...
Here’s why COP30, along with previous climate meetings, matter for the lightweight metal value chain
Born from the 1992 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) treaty and signed at the Rio Earth Summit, the COP (Conference of the Parties) completes three decades of climate commitment meetings. The 30 th COP or the ‘2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference’ is being held at the heart of the Amazon (Belem, Brazil) and is currently in progress. Yet, when it comes to evaluating the achievements as opposed to targets or goals, the mass notion is that the majority of the countries have failed to achieve the agenda of the climate meets and only 15 have achieved the deadline set by the latest Paris agreement for 2025 (which was inscribed at the COP21). Let’s explore what is the ground reality of COPs versus aluminium in the past thirty years. Image source:...
WEEKLY: China's alumina output drops, stocks swell to new record
The decline in output mainly reflected extended calciner suspensions in Hebei and Henan provinces triggered by ongoing air pollution alerts, as well as production adjustments in Shandong province, market sources said. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain In response to air pollution warnings initially scheduled to be lifted at the end of October, two alumina producers in Henan's Luoyang and Hebei's Tangshan each halted two calciners for 3-4 days during the prior week, as reported. When the two cities issued renewed smog alerts on November 3 and 4, the suspensions were extended through last week, further curbing output. In addition, a refiner in Shandong began a three-week maintenance check on one calciner early last week due to...
From fiscal spikes to green strides, Hindalco’s Q2FY26 performance unfolded
Indian aluminium producer Hindalco Industries Limited has released its Q2 FY26 performance for the period ending September 30, 2025. With the rising demand for aluminium within the country, the firm is enhancing production capabilities and is also pushing towards green initiatives via renewable energy use. Overall financial snapshot The group of companies (including Novelis) showed a robust performance across all its businesses in Q2 FY26, where the consolidated revenue reached INR 660.58 billion (USD 7.95 billion). It reflected an increase of 13 per cent from INR 5.83 billion (USD 7.01 billion) in Q2 FY25. The business segment EBITDA climbed by 6 per cent year-on-year, amounting to INR 0.91 billion (USD 1.10 billion), up from INR 0.86 billion (USD 1.03 billion) the previous year. Profit...
Can the recycling industry scale for the 2030 goals? We ready to shift to an all-aluminium recycling world?
Market research collated in early 2025 places the global aluminium scrap processing pipeline at roughly 38 million tonnes in 2024, with forecasts pointing to about 57 million tonnes by 2030 (a 7 per cent CAGR from 2024–2030). That projection is built on expected growth in automotive, packaging and building applications and on investments in sorting and remelting technologies. Image depicts recycled aluminium usage by end-user spectrum (Source: AL Circle Report ) Also read: 80% of waste, including aluminium packaging, goes into landfills in Greece For context at the national level, U.S. Geological Survey Publications states that in the United States, recovered aluminium from purchased scrap in 2024 was about 3.27 million tonnes, of which new (manufacturing) scrap accounted for roughly 56...
SWG collaboration: Today’s economic pathway to net-zero alumina
Sahl Regen, Worley and GEA (SWG) have collaborated to demonstrate how integrating Sahl Regen’s KX Heat Exchanger with GEA’s Mechanical Vapour Recompression (MVR) evaporation can reduce Bayer-process energy consumption by around 70 per cent. The collaboration is reinforced by Sahl Regen’s Kassofor Programme, which advances Net-Zero goals through verified carbon capture in regenerated soils. Image source: GEA Key highlights of the article 70 per cent total energy reduction of the Bayer process and full digestion electrification with KX + MVR. All KX components are individually proven, with the first integrated demonstration unit ready to build. Reuse of Bayer-contaminated waters and environmental compatibility of MVR condensate. Measured and independently verified carbon offset credits:...
Global bauxite upswing triggers exports, expansions and collaborations across the aluminium ecosystem – here’s what’s unfolding
The global bauxite market size is poised to grow at a CAGR of 2.7 per cent by 2032, reaching USD 19.6 billion. In 2024, the market size was USD 15.9 billion, and in 2025, it is expected to stand at USD 16.4 billio - still a USD 3.2 billion journey away from its projected peak. And as the numbers rise, so does the momentum across the industry. It unveils news projects, secures fresh investments, expands capacities, and even reshapes policies to align with the changing market landscape. The past week was a vivid reflection of this energy. Guinea ramped up its shipment volumes, Tianshan Aluminium expanded its footprint, and Metro Mining reaffirmed its steady march toward its 2025 shipment target.The wave of activity did not stop there. Riding on the same current of progress, alumina refiners...
Bigger capacity, greater impact? Assessing if Novelis faces a deeper fiscal blow from Oswego fire than Sierre flood
History has a way of repeating itself for Novelis; and this time, it has done so in barely a year. During the second quarter of FY2025, Novelis endured financial and operational stress due to a severe flood at its Sierre plant in Switzerland. Cut to Q2 FY2026, Novelis again finds itself in a similar situation due to a fire outbreak at its Oswego plant in New York. While the timing of the incident was just two weeks before the quarter-end, it reflected not much effect on its Q2 financial results. But Novelis and its parent company Hindalco are embracing a negative impact on cash flow by about USD 550-650 million for FY2026, which also includes an estimated adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 100-150 million - a figure that signals the gravity of the operational disruption. This image is only for...
India’s automotive upswing amid festivals & GST 2.0, driving ADC12 aluminium alloy demand
As per the data of Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), a steady growth is seen in the Indian automobile industry in the first 9 months of the calendar year 2025. With the rise in the overall consumption, a direct implication is seen within the demand for aluminium for the automobile parts, which is highly used in reducing vehicle weight and other manufacturing processes. Segment-wise performance overview Segment-wise, passenger vehicles saw a declining trend by 0.31 per cent year-on-year, reaching 3.21 million units. Nonetheless, a significant growth was witnessed in the three-wheeler and two-wheeler segments, where each rose by 5.56 per cent and 0.89 per cent, respectively, and each sold 0.57 million units and 14.8 million units. Concerning the commercial vehicle, the...
Century Aluminum Q3 2025: Higher prices lift financial performance
A year’s gap and the performance of Century Aluminum, the US-based leading primary aluminium producer, has gone opposite ways. Though the aluminium manufacturer is still in the safe zone in terms of financials, the shipments and sales figures tell an altogether different tale. Image source: https://centuryaluminum.com/ Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The year has been defined by energy volatility and thin inventory conditions across the aluminium chain, and now Century Aluminum has entered the final quarter of 2025 with a relatively clearer air and a stronger footing. The company’s third-quarter number state steady plant performance where it matters, responsive cost management, and a market that is finally giving US smelters...
Guinea’s red earth rolls on: Bauxite exports race toward 200MT in 2026
The red soils of Guinea are continuously drawing the world’s gaze with their mining power. As 2026 nears, the country’s bauxite sector remains on a record-setting path, reshaping its role in global supply chains. In the first three months of 2025, Guinea exported 48.6 million tonnes of bauxite — nearly 40 per cent more than in the same period a year before. Mines ran at full capacity, and long-awaited port expansions finally began to show results, easing the delays that once choked exports. By the end of September, total shipments reached 139.21 million tonnes. That included 99.8 million tonnes in the first half and 39.41 million tonnes in the third quarter — about a 23 per cent increase year-on-year. To hit the 199 million tonne goal for the full year, producers needed to move roughly...
Hindalco takes a close to $650 million brunt post Novelis' fire impact
All eyes are on Novelis’ New York (Oswego) unit reopening in December, which halted production after the September 16 fire incident. Why? Stakeholders are hit financially on both ends of the Atlantic. Hindalco, the parent company of Novelis, is suffering a negative free cash flow from the unfortunate incident. Novelis, whose own financials are jolted, is also a wholly-owned subsidiary (a company whose 100 per cent share capital is owned) by parent company Hindalco and is also a major contributor to the latter’s consolidated financial results. Image for representational purposes only Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain Financial impacts on Hindalco Novelis along with Hindalco are prepared for their free cash flow for the current...
WEEKLY: China's thermal coal holds steady amid rosy demand outlook
Last week, according to Mysteel's assessment, the benchmark 5,500 kcal per kg NAR thermal coal dipped from RMB 768 per tonne (USD 107.9 per tonne) on Monday to RMB 766 per tonne on Tuesday. After staying at this level in the following two days, it rebounded to RMB 769 per tonne on Friday. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain At northern ports, bullish sentiment largely persisted through the week despite thin liquidity, as the market converged on a broadly bullish outlook for demand during the seasonal peak period. Starting from November 1, most places in North China enter the heating season that will last until mid-March next year. Meanwhile, as some utilities missed opportunities to restock in October, they are expected to make...
