AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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China anode material margins squeezed by rising costs
According to Mysteel OilChem's tracking, the anode material producers recently suffered from increasingly squeezed profit margins due to rising petroleum coke prices and persistently low anode material prices. While anode producers have a strong desire to hike prices, the supply structure is limiting their ability to do so. Anode material production processes are primarily divided into artificial graphite, natural graphite, and others, including MCMB, silicon-based anodes, and hard carbon anodes. Artificial graphite anode technology is relatively mature, offering long cycle life, high safety, and low cost, making it suitable for power and energy storage batteries. In 2025, rapid growth in energy storage battery orders has increased demand for artificial graphite anodes. It currently holds...
Here's how Europe's present aluminium foil market looks and what you can expect by 2030
European aluminium foil makers opened 2025 in high gear. Orders were strong through the first quarter and that strength carried into the spring. Between April and June, producers shipped 236,500 tonnes, up 4.2 per cent from the same period, previous year, according to European Aluminium Foil Association (EAFA). By the end of the first half, deliveries had climbed to 480,300 tonnes — 7.7 per cent more than in the first six months of 2024. Both thinner and thicker foil contributed to the rise, and demand came from inside the EU as well as abroad. European buyers took more than 6 per cent extra volume in H1, while shipments to markets outside the region jumped nearly 20 per cent. The scale of demand is clear from the consumption numbers: 1 million tonnes used in 2024, an estimated 1.05...
Europe eyes export restrictions as aluminium scrap continues to drain toward Asia
What began as a quiet movement of scrap out of Europe has gradually turned into a significant concern for the region’s aluminium recyclers. The volumes leaving the bloc have increased year after year, and the trend is now firmly visible in the export numbers. In 2020, the EU exported USD 1 billion worth of aluminium scrap — about 937.8 thousand tonnes, but year later, that figure nearly doubled to USD 1.9 billion, which accounts for 1.115 million tonnes. Things eased slightly in 2022 to USD 1.88 billion and 992.5 thousand tonnes, but this downturn barely lasted a season. By 2023, exports were back up — 1.16 million tonnes scrap worth USD 2 billion were again exported and in 2024 it pushed even higher to USD 2.34 billion which accounts for 1.25 million tonnes. And before Brussels could...
NBS: China's Jan-Oct alumina output rises 8% Y-o-Y despite Oct drop
In October alone, China produced 7.87 million tonnes of alumina, up by 5.8 per cent from the same month of 2024, the NBS data indicated. However, production decreased by 1.7 per cent during the same month compared with September, Mysteel Global calculated based on the NBS data. Among China's five key alumina-producing regions, three recorded on-month declines in October, Mysteel Global noted. Alumina output in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi declined by 28.5 per cent, 2.1 per cent, and 1.2 per cent, respectively, according to the NBS statistics. Even in Shandong, the country's largest production base, production remained broadly stable, edging up by a marginal 0.1 per cent. Read More: World alumina production aligns with demand forecast, with a 6% growth in Q3 2025 The on-month drop in...
Indonesia’s 900Kt aluminium goal’s reality check: 7 stalled refineries, 24Mt of lost bauxite demand
Indonesia is rich in bauxite. That is no news. It has been exporting bauxite to leading aluminium-producing countries for years. That is no news either. It imposed a ban on its bauxite export back in 2023. While that creates a whirl for a while, the world has re-strategised and found its bauxite (whether the deficit has been completely replenished or not, we will come to that later)! But a product export that once generated over USD 600 million for Indonesia is now running at nil. Au contraire, the nation’s alumina import (a product derived from bauxite and is further refined to produce aluminium) has peaked in the past two years (2023-2024). Image source: https://www.exportgenius.in/ Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain In...
China's aluminium foil exports stay strong via rerouted trade; domestic consumption poised to grow 2.4% alongside
For more than a decade, China aluminium foil sector has been quietly reshaping the global marketplace — expanding capacity, feeding a growing domestic appetite and pushing exports deeper into different regions, even as anti-dumping barriers rise around it. In 2024, the world’s aluminium foil market stood at USD 38.55 billion and was projected to grow at a 5.05 per cent CAGR by 2030, and in this projection, China plays a very important role. The country’s dominance is not accidental. By 2023, China was already producing 4.31 million tonnes of aluminium foil, and output climbed further to 4.7 million tonnes in 2024, which was around 70 per cent of global production. More than 160 rolling mills form the backbone of this industry, offering between 6.1 and 6.5 million tonnes of capacity, and...
China-Russia natural gas trade further deepens with 3 energy documents signed in 2025
Since 2020, the pace of natural gas trade between China and Russia has accelerated significantly. Particularly, the three energy documents signed this year directly increased the maximum pipeline natural gas (PNG) trade volume between the two countries to 106 billion cubic meters. China and Russia signed three energy documents in September 2025, including increasing the annual gas transmission volume of China-Russia East-route Natural Gas Pipeline (Pipeline 1) to 44 billion cubic meters, expanding the China-Far East Gas Pipeline's capacity from 10 billion cubic meters to 12 billion cubic meters, and initiating the much-anticipated memorandum for Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The reason for...
Improvement of the effectiveness of making alumina by the Updated ILTD Process: alumina refineries in India as examples (Part 2)
The updated ILTD (UILTD) process and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The 17 SDGs were adopted at the UN Sustainable Development Summit in New York in September 2015. “United Nations, 2015” Since that time numerous conferences, and publications were organised and prepared most of them connected with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The UILTD Process comprises significant improvements in processing efficiencies and cost reductions, with the major focus on sustainability and alignment 6 SDGs. This paper presents significant potential, especially within materials science, industrial ecology and environmental engineering. The amount and composition of the bauxite feedstocks, the bauxite residues, the same for the dicalcium-silicate (C 2 S, belite) by-products were...
WEEKLY: Chinese spot alumina price decline eases
As of November 13, the national average spot price for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity exceeding 98.6 per cent dipped by 0.3 per cent on week to RMB 2,867 per tonne (USD 403 per tonne), according to Mysteel's price assessment. The decline was smaller than the 1.1 per cent drop recorded the previous week, Mysteel Global noted. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The narrowed price decrease was largely because of firm transaction prices in alumina tenders in North China, where some primary aluminium smelters with immediate restocking needs agreed to accept higher offers from alumina traders holding tighter stockpiles, according to market sources. On the supply side, alumina production remained largely stable last week....
China's alumina production with 8% growth rate races ahead of primary aluminium, signalling surplus pressure
According to the International Aluminium Association, metallurgical-grade alumina output was 21.3 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, then dipped a little in Q2 to 21 million tonnes, only to jump noticeably in Q3, reaching 22.7 million tonnes — an 8.17 per cent increase from the previous quarter. Compared with last year’s third quarter, when China produced 20.91 million tonnes, the latest Q3 total stands 8.86 per cent higher. The monthly trail reveals how the turnaround took shape. January opened at 7.3 million tonnes, but February sank to 6.7 million tonnes — roughly a 7.7 per cent fall — before production bounced back to 7.325 million tonnes in March, up 8.6 per cent. April dipped again to 6.8 million tonnes, though May and June clawed back the loss with 7 million and 7.12...
Improvement of the effectiveness of making alumina by the Updated ILTD Process: alumina refineries in India as examples (Part 1)
For those who are familiar with alumina production by the Bayer Process it is evident that that the Cost of Production (COP) largely depends on the Available alumina (A.Al) and Reactive silica (R.Si) content of the particular bauxite. The caustic consumption, which is mainly dependent on A.Al and R.Si; constitutes the second largest cost item after the cost of bauxite in the Bayer process. Image for representational purpose In India there are large lateritic bauxite resources with medium available alumina (trihydrated alumina, THA) and medium to high Reactive SiO 2 content. With the deteriorating bauxite quality, refineries are struggling to keep the alumina production cost at the low level. The Updated Improved Low Temperature Digestion (ILTD) Process as a novel way to increase the...
Powering aluminium PART 2: Aluminium faces a new energy reality
The energy industry attended ADIPEC 2025 with a familiar problem and left with a sharper one. Every major conversation in Abu Dhabi, whether on investment flows, upstream fuel security, grid volatility or the rapid buildout of digital energy systems, pointed to a structural shift already underway: the cost and carbon advantage of aluminium is no longer determined by the smelter, but by the energy system surrounding it. Image source: https://www.mdpi.com/ Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain This is the unavoidable conclusion when the power consumption map from 2023–24 (Part 1 of this series) is layered against the messages coming out of ADIPEC. Smelters are now operating in an environment where energy is both their largest risk...
Global aluminium foil demand is set to hit 7.2 MT by 2028 — with the Americas playing a key role
Over the past few years, the aluminium foil market has been moving in one direction — up—and it’s been doing very quietly, without any dramatic spikes. Back in 2018, global use of foil was around 5.3 million tonnes. By 2023, it moved up to 6.1 million tonnes. And if current projections hold, the world will be using close to 7.2 million tonnes by 2028. What’s curious is how familiar the consumption pattern still looks. In 2023, the industrial sector took 30 per cent of total usage, food and beverage packaging held 21 per cent, semi-rigid containers (SRC) formats accounted for 17 per cent, household foil for 13 per cent, other consumer uses for 9 per cent, and pharmaceuticals for 10 per cent. Even by 2028, the distribution barely changes: industrial demand edges to 32 per cent, food and...
World alumina production aligns with demand forecast, with a 6% growth in Q3 2025
The world alumina production concluded the third quarter of 2025 with a positive trajectory, overcoming a soft September thanks to strong output in July and August when the volume reached an all-time high . Although primary aluminium production slowed, alumina output remained tightly aligned with consumption trends. Strong momentum keeps alumina output aligned with consumption According to the International Aluminium Insitute, the world alumina production volume in Q3 2025 amounted to 39.387 million tonnes versus 37.225 million tonnes, reflecting a Q-o-Q rise of 5.81 per cent. While metallurgical-grade climbed up from 34.937 million tonnes to 37.002 million tonnes, chemical-grade grew from 2.288 million tonnes to 2.385 million tonnes. Through the first nine months, the output also showed...
NBS: China's Jan-Oct primary aluminium output rises 2 per cent Y-o-Y
In October alone, China produced 3.8 million tonnes of the light metal, up by a small 0.4 per cent from the same month last year, the NBS data showed. The figure was lower by 0.2 per cent from September, Mysteel Global's calculation based on the NBS statistics showed. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain The NBS October figure closely matched preliminary data emerging from Mysteel's survey, which showed that the 89 Chinese smelters under its regular monitoring produced 3.8 million tonnes of primary aluminium last month, up 3.3 per cent on month. Most primary aluminium smelters continued steady operations in October, supported by a further improvement in profitability across the domestic industry, which climbed to a more than...
Europe’s aluminium sector under strain; Premiums, smelter disruption and CBAM tighten the market
Europe’s aluminium market is being squeezed from three sides at once: soaring premiums, a major smelter shutdown and the countdown to CBAM. Together, these pressures are tightening supply, inflating costs and reshaping trade flows across the continent as 2025 draws to a close. Premiums surge as supply tightens across Europe The first sign came from the premium market. By November 2025, Europe’s duty-paid premium had climbed to USD 324.38 per tonne, after touching a nine-month high of USD 330 per tonne on November 3. Forecasts for December point to roughly USD 335.50 per tonne, with 2026 estimates sitting between USD 327.25 and USD 330.50 per tonne. The rise did not come from a single trigger but from a combination of tightening supply, higher freight rates and early adjustments to...
Powering aluminium PART 1: Inside the global smelting energy map (2023–24)
Aluminium has always carried a contradiction. It is the metal the world turns to for lightweighting, electrification and decarbonisation. And yet producing it remains one of the most energy-intensive industrial activities on the planet. However, that contradiction is finally catching up with the industry. Over 2023 and 2024, as the world’s primary aluminium output edged upward, a parallel battle unfolded behind the scenes in the fight over electrons. What powered the smelters mattered as much as how much they produced. And the global power map that emerges from the latest data is a story of contrasts — between coal and hydro, between gas-rich Gulf producers and hydro-blessed Scandinavia, between Asia’s ambitious new expansions and Africa’s slow-moving grids. This is the first of a...
MYSTEEL: Oversupply keeps China alumina prices under near-term pressure
Meanwhile, China's imports of alumina climbed as overseas material remained cheaper than the domestic supply. Mysteel data showed that the average price of Australian alumina (purity above 98.6per cent) fell 4.5 per cent on a month to USD 344.4 per tonne CIF Lianyungang in October. By comparison, China's weighted national average price for the same grade of domestic alumina dropped 5 per cent to RMB 2,920 per tonne(USD 410.2 per tonne), still USD 65.8 per tonne higher than imported material. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain In late October, some temporary production cuts were implemented in North China, where local alumina refiners were ordered to reduce operations due to heavy air pollution. These curbs led to a slight...
