Americas’ analogue: South America posts alumina gains with 1.9% rise in production, while North America struggles under tariff pressure

This article highlights the sharp contrast between South and North America’s alumina production, offering an in-depth analysis of the region’s market dynamics against the backdrop of prevailing tariffs. In the first quarter of 2025, the total production of alumina across the Americas showed a downward trend compared to both the previous quarter and the same period last year. Data from the International Aluminium Institute reveals that output totalled 1.36 million tonnes, marking a 1.9 per cent decline from the previous quarter and a 0.87 per cent drop year-on-year.

Of the total alumina production in Q1 across the Americas, North America accounted for 72 per cent with 979,000 tonnes of output, while South America contributed the rest with 381,000 tonnes. IAI data indicates alumina production in both regions fell quarter-on-quarter. While North America fell short of the 1 million tonne benchmark by 2 per cent, South America saw a 1.3 per cent decline from 386,000 tonnes. On an annual basis, North America’s alumina production decreased by 1.9 per cent from 998,000 tonnes, but that of South America’s grew by 1.87 per cent from 374,000 tonnes.

In both North and South America, the sharp fall in February production was the main cause of the overall quarterly drop. Although output recovered month-on-month in March, rising by 11.18 per cent in North America to 338,000 tonnes and by 10 per cent in South America to 131,000 tonnes, the steep declines in February to 304,000 tonnes in North America and 119,000 tonnes in South America weighed heavily on the quarterly results.

The annual increase in South America’s production through the first quarter of 2025 was primarily due to steady output levels compared to the same period in 2024. In January 2025, production stood at 131,000 tonnes, up from 127,000 tonnes a year ago, followed by an output of 119,000 tonnes in February versus 120,000 tonnes, and then again rebounded to 131,000 tonnes in March.

This consistency contributed to a modest rise in South America’s share of the Americas’ total alumina output, increasing to 28.01 per cent in Q1 2025 from 27.8 per cent in Q4 2024 and 27.26 per cent in Q1 2024.