149.5Mt bauxite in focus: Guinea drives Africa’s quadrupled export growth to China

Guinea has emerged as a major driver of Africa’s export growth to China, with its bauxite shipments to the Asian market nearly quadrupling between 2018 and 2025. Chinese imports of Guinean aluminium ores and concentrates, consisting almost entirely of bauxite, increased from 38.2 million tonnes to approximately 149.5 million tonnes over the period. The surge has bolstered Guinea’s position in China’s bauxite supply chain, while the country advances its alumina refining capacity expansion plans.

Trade figures highlight the importance of Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Africa’s bauxite and copper exports to China, respectively. Between 2018 and 2025, the two countries added USD 25.77 billion to Chinese purchases from the continent, exceeding Africa’s overall net gain of USD 23.74 billion. Their combined contribution accounted for 108.6 per cent of the continent’s increase.

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China’s imports from Africa rose from USD 99.28 billion in 2018 to USD 123.02 billion in 2025. Guinea’s sales increased from USD 2.20 billion to USD 12 billion, adding USD 9.80 billion over the period. In 2025 alone, Guinea contributed USD 4.36 billion to the USD 6.22 billion increase in China’s imports from Africa.

Imports from the rest of Africa, excluding Guinea and the DRC, declined by 2.2 per cent, from USD 91.42 billion to USD 89.39 billion. This indicates the heavy dependence of Africa’s overall export growth on the two mineral-rich countries. 

Guinea’s bauxite supply gains momentum

China’s imports of Guinean aluminium ores and concentrates rose from 38.2 million tonnes in 2018 to around 149.5 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting the rapid expansion of Guinea’s role as a bauxite supplier. The country’s increasing contribution to China’s mineral imports has also coincided with growing interest in establishing alumina production facilities within Guinea.

At present, Guinea has one operating alumina refinery, i.e., RUSAL’s Friguia facility, which has an installed capacity of 600,000 tonnes per year but operates below that level.

Three Chinese-led alumina refinery projects are under construction. SPIC’s facility at Boffa began construction in March 2025, while Winning Consortium Alumina Guinea’s project at Dobali followed in December 2025. Both are designed for annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes. CHALCO began construction of its refinery at Boffa in June 2026, with a core investment of approximately USD 1 billion.

Guinea’s Minister of Mines and Geology Bouna Sylla has put the combined planned capacity of the three projects at 4.8 million tonnes and set a target of establishing five refineries by 2030. If realised, these projects would represent a significant step towards expanding the country’s domestic alumina processing industry.

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GAC settlement adds to Guinea’s refining ambitions

Guinea’s push for domestic processing has also shaped its relationship with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). In 2025, the government withdrew the mining concession of Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), an EGA subsidiary, citing unmet local processing commitments.

Later this year, the assets were transferred to state-owned Nimba Mining Company. A mining agreement signed in August 2026 also provides for the development of an alumina refinery.

The developments throw light on Guinea’s broader ambition to move beyond exporting bauxite and increase the share of mineral processing undertaken within the country. With China remaining the dominant destination for its bauxite shipments, the expansion of domestic refining capacity could provide strong backing to Guinea’s next phase of growth in the aluminium value chain.  

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