Assessing the potential impact of Guinea's fuel depot accident on China's bauxite imports
The recent accident in Guinea with the fuel depot happened back in the middle of December, but the impact on bauxite deliveries to China has not yet come through.
China recorded an increase in bauxite imports in January. The month saw about 12 million tonnes brought in, mainly from Guinea and Australia. The volume imported from Guinea rose compared to last year, with an increase of almost 180,000 tonnes compared to January 2023.
However, the cargoes that arrived in China in January were shipped from Guinea in November or early December. We won't see the impact the accident had on the import statistics until the February numbers come in. We are not expecting or hearing of problems, even though there was an initial panic when the news came through. The market settled again fairly quickly. But we should remember that China's main bauxite supply line is long.
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