AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Green tech + renewables can slash Australia’s carbon emissions by 98% — South32 backs the shift with $4.4M funding
South32 Limited, a mining and metals company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, has secured $4.4 million government funding to accelerate its carbon emission reduction efforts at Worsley Alumina Refinery, which will eventually bring the company close to its net-zero carbon emission goals by 2050. Image source: ARENA The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) said the funding would support South32 in conducting a pre-feasibility study to examine four investment options for partially replacing fossil fuel-based steam generation with renewable energy-powered systems at Worsley refinery. This shift will enable the company reduce direct carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, leading to a more sustainable future. This funding is part of ARENA’s $400 million Industrial...
Price charts in India hit by ripple effect of April’s routine of alumina and aluminium maintenance season in China
Aluminium prices in India nudged up 0.8 per cent to INR 238.9 per kilogram, buoyed by a chain reaction unfolding in China’s refinery landscape. But this isn’t just another pricing blip, and it’s a mirror to something deeper: the calculated routine of alumina supply, energy bottlenecks, and macro market muscle. As Chinese refineries go under the wrench and global production gears shift, the aluminium market is entering a new price reality, one which is calibrated not just by output but by strategic pause. Image for representational purposes only Maintenance or market masterstroke? From late March through April 2025, nearly 11.5 million tonnes of Chinese alumina capacity went offline for maintenance, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Far from a routine fix-up, this mass downtime...
From drivers to decliners – Unlike Q1 2025, China and Europe’s alumina output slips in April, dragging global production down
In April 2025, the world alumina production, including chemical and metallurgical-grade, totalled 12.407 million tonnes, reflecting a month-on-month downfall of 2.48 per cent from 12.723 million tonnes, found the International Aluminium Institute. Of the total alumina output, metallurgical-grade production volume was 11.614 million tonnes, which was also down by 3 per cent M-o-M from 11.974 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the chemical-grade alumina production in April 2025 registered an increase of 5.87 per cent from 749,000 tonnes to 793,000 tonnes. Even on an annual basis, the world’s chemical-grade alumina production grew by 3.12 per cent from 769,000 tonnes, and that of metallurgical-grade alumina output decreased by 3.83 per cent from 11.186 million tonnes. The output of...
Guinea pulls the plug by cancelling 129 mining licences, and it seems to be just the beginning
Guinea has just made a move that could send tremors through global commodity corridors, cancelling from 50 plus to 129 mineral exploration permits in a single sweep. No clarifications. No negotiations. Just a decree from the military-led government aimed at “tightening control” over the West African nation’s mineral treasure trove. A senior official at the Ministry of Mines said the move was to free unused resources for other more potent investors. “We’ve simplified it by digitising the whole system, which can now be better controlled,” the official has disclosed to Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. If you think this is just another bureaucratic reshuffle, think again. This is Guinea signalling that it’s done playing host to dormant licences and absentee investors. The...
US tariff-led aluminium price volatility hits Singapore construction industry, with its GDP contribution shrinking 5%
The Republic of Singapore, a vibrant island nation and city-state in Southeast Asia, boasts a robust construction industry, driven by government initiatives, technological advancements, and a focus on sustainability. The sector spans commercial, institutional, industrial, and infrastructure projects, positioning Singapore as a regional leader in construction. Moreover, recent investments in renewable energy infrastructure to achieve a solar energy capacity of 2GW by 2030 further bolster the industry's growth in the construction sector. According to market research firms like IMARC Group and Next Move Strategy Consulting, Singapore’s construction market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2 per cent from 2025 to 2033. Valued at approximately USD 31.18...
Q1 2025 global EV battery market: China’s dominance intensifies, elbowing Japan and Korea
In the first quarter of 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market experienced a considerable surge, with total installed capacity reaching 221.8 GWh, which is a 38.8 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024. Today, we delve into the leading brands and their performance in 2025, which has aided in the surge against all odds. Country-wise, China has shoved South Korea and Japan in the sustainable battery race. China’s battery manufacturers lead the charge Chinese battery manufacturers have solidified their dominance in the global EV battery market: CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited): Maintained its position as the world’s leading EV battery supplier, with an installed capacity of 84.9 GWh, marking a 40.2 per cent year-over-year increase. CATL’s...
“The patented ‘Vedanta Lining Design’ for our aluminium smelting pots reduces energy consumption by 200-250 kWh per tonne and extends pot lifespan, which can cut 386,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually at our Jharsuguda smelter”, Rajiv Kumar, CEO, Vedanta Aluminium
AL Circle is honoured to present an exclusive interview with Rajiv Kumar, CEO of Vedanta Aluminium—India's largest aluminium producer and a key player in driving the nation's industrial growth and sustainability ambitions. In this conversation, Rajiv Kumar discusses Vedanta's transformation journey, its pioneering digital and green initiatives, and how the company is shaping the future of the aluminium industry both in India and globally. AL Circle: Vedanta Aluminium is shifting focus from traditional commodity aluminium to value-added products, aiming to increase VAP share from 60% to over 90%. What are the biggest challenges and opportunities you foresee in accelerating this transformation? Rajiv Kumar: As Vedanta Aluminium accelerates its journey towards becoming a global leader in...
Japan’s rubbish heist crisis: Why aluminium can theft is surging in broad daylight
In a quiet alley in Fukuoka’s Minami Ward, what began as a routine garbage patrol turned into a tense showdown. “You’re not allowed to take that!” howled a Fukuoka city employee, catching a man red-handed with a bag of non-burnable waste stuffed with aluminium cans. The man lunged, shoving the official and trying to flee in a small car. After a brief scuffle, two city workers managed to pin him down and hand him over to the police. His backseat? Crammed with five bags of stolen aluminium cans. This wasn’t his first offence. The man, in his 20s, had already received three warnings, both written and verbal. But the lure of aluminium had proven too strong. From trash to treasure Aluminium theft in Japan is no longer a petty nuisance. It is becoming an organised, nationwide problem. In...
Aluminium scrap recovery growth helps US maintain balance despite trade shifts
In February 2025, the United States recorded a 5.88 per cent month-on-month increase in aluminium scrap exports, reaching 162,000 tonnes compared to 153,000 tonnes in January, according to data published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). In contrast, aluminium scrap imports declined by 5.84 per cent month-on-month to 59,700 tonnes, down from 63,400 tonnes in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, both exports and imports demonstrated upward trends. Aluminium scrap exports rose by 2.53 per cent from 158,000 tonnes in February 2024, while imports surged by 24.8 per cent from 50,800 tonnes. The uptick in export volume was likely driven by increased domestic aluminium scrap recovery, which totalled 321,000 tonnes in February, marking an 8 per cent rise from 297,000 tonnes in...
Energy cold war? Energy sanctions, BRICS resistance — a fracture in the global power grid
In a sharply worded communique, the BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — has fired a warning shot at the West’s growing reliance on sanctions as an instrument of energy policy. At the latest BRICS Energy Ministers’ Meeting held under Russia’s presidency, the five-nation grouping condemned what they call “unilateral sanctions” and “arbitrary restrictions,” signalling an urgent geopolitical realignment that is beginning to redraw the contours of the global energy map. “We express concern about unilateral sanctions and arbitrary restrictions on energy trade and investment in the energy sector that disregard international law... and pose a threat to the security of the critical energy infrastructure,” the BRICS group said in a joint statement. This declaration comes...
“In addition to new smelters, the United States should find ways to capture and recycle more aluminium scrap – something that can be done at a fraction of the cost of building new smelters,” Matt Meenan, vice president of external affairs at the Aluminum Association
In conversation with Matt Meenan, vice president of external affairs at the Aluminum Association, regarding US tariffs challenges, impacts, and solutions. Mr Meenan has candidly shared his opinion that the United States should find ways to capture and recycle more aluminium scrap - something that can be done at a fraction of the cost of building new smelters. He said this in the context of growing demand for aluminium in the US domestic market. According to him, domestic US aluminium demand remains 3.5 per cent higher than the last year and 10 per cent more than a decade ago. He also pointed out that the long-term demand for aluminium is expected to grow by 80 per cent globally by 2050. To know more about Matt Meenan's valuable insights, read the full interview below. AL Circle: How will...
Industry titans unlocking revolutionary technologies to recycle aluminium dross into a strategic resource
The aluminium industry is on a determined mission to build a truly closed-loop supply chain, and the spotlight is firmly on aluminium dross. Around the globe, smelters are ramping up efforts to minimise waste and supercharge recycling, driven by ambitious sustainability goals. Thanks to cutting-edge advances in dross processing technology over the past few years, companies are making remarkable strides. The impact - Of the total aluminium dross generated in 2024, an estimated 60-70 per cent was recovered and processed in various in-house facilities of aluminium producers as well as at third-party recycling facilities. Not only this, top region wise also the aluminium recovery rate from dross has shown significant results. Like – China generated over 2 million tonnes of dross, of which...
Can EGA buck the closure trend? A feasibility deep-dive into smelting amid US power crisis
Emirate Global Aluminium’s recent announcement of setting up a primary aluminium smelter in Oklahoma, close to the Tulsa Port of Inola, is going to be the first new primary aluminium plant built in the US in 45 years. The USD 4 billion investment by the Middle Eastern business will strengthen domestic aluminium production and support supply chain resilience. But, in the heartland of America, a silent battle is unfolding — wherein at stake is the future of US aluminium smelting, an industry once thriving but now teetering under the weight of soaring electricity costs and the insatiable energy demands of Big Tech’s data centres. Now, the Aluminum Association estimates that a new US smelter would need a minimum 20-year power contract at a price of not more than USD 40 per MWh to be viable at...
World primary aluminium production declines 3% in April 2025, extending three-year trend
In April (30 days) 2025, the world's primary aluminium production decreased by 3.27 per cent M-o-M despite no decline recorded in daily average output. According to IAI, the world’s daily average aluminium production in April was 201,100 tonnes, remaining flat compared to 201,200 tonnes in March. However, on an annual basis, the output increased by 2.25 per cent, showed the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Decoding the output trend of April According to IAI data, the world primary aluminium production in April was 6.033 million tonnes, compared to 6.237 million tonnes a month ago and 5.9 million tonnes a year earlier. Throughout the year so far, the world primary aluminium production recorded the second monthly fall, but it is important to analyse if this has been a trend over the...
China’s downstream aluminium market in Q1 ’25: Cracks emerge in trade landscape
Since January, US President Donald Trump has announced the probable implementation of tariffs. He did not disclose the details then, but the history made aluminium traders susceptible to the future of the global aluminium import-export scenario, which, with time, proved to be true. China’s downstream aluminium product exports deflated while domestic consumption numbers balanced the production vs demand scenario. Image for representational purposes only China’s downstream aluminium domestic sector remained a cornerstone of its industrial economy in the first quarter of 2025, with total domestic consumption touching 9.7 million tonnes. This consumption, spanning multiple industrial segments, was valued at approximately USD 25.2 billion. Q1: Production and consumption The construction sector...
India’s EV sales grow 45% in single month, supplementing aluminium demand - Who’s capitalising on the market?
Since the end of 2024, market analysts in India consistently signalled strong growth prospects in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, urging the manufacturing industry to gear up for a major transformation. A central narrative in this shift was the soaring demand for aluminium, a vital material used extensively in engine parts, chassis, body panels, and wheels. Even ex-Vedanta CEO John Slaven had highlighted last year that the growing impact of electric vehicles, particularly four-wheelers, on the aluminium industry. He had explicitly said, “I think (electric) four-wheelers is where we expect to see the largest growth. There’s more (aluminium) content per vehicle than in a two-wheeler. And then also, as the four-wheelers become electrified, there’s more aluminium per EV than there is per IC...
Reiterated proof of Guinea’s ‘build locally, hire locally, pay locally, or leave’ sentiment through Lindian’s confidence
Where companies fear losing rights and concessions, Lindian Resources, an Australian mining entity, is confident about its safety in the Guinean mining business. But where is this confidence stemming from? The answer lies in three nouns — Lelouma, Gaoual and Woula. Lelouma bauxite project, described as a ‘Tier 1’ bauxite project, is a recently secured (April 2025) Lindian Resources’ 100 per cent ownership project. It boasts a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource of 900 million tonnes at 45 per cent aluminium oxide (Al₂O₃) and 2.1 per cent silicon dioxide (SiO₂). The project aims to produce direct shipping ore (DSO), meaning it won’t require extensive processing. It’s strategically located near existing infrastructure, including a railway line and the Kamsar port. The Gaoual bauxite project,...
"China’s 2025-2027 action plan aims to boost clean energy adoption to over 30 per cent, increase recycled aluminium production beyond 15 million tonnes, and improve energy efficiency across at least 30 per cent of capacity by 2027,” Michelle Leung, Head of Asia Metals & Mining, Sustainability, at Bloomberg
Michelle Leung is the Head of Asia Metals and Mining, Sustainability at Bloomberg Intelligence, where she conducts comprehensive research on key metals in Asia, with a particular focus on China and an active speaker at global conferences. Prior to her current role, Michelle served as an ESG Analyst who specialized in climate-related ESG strategies and analysis, as well as ESG integration research and data, including ESG Scores. she took the lead in the ESG committee at Women in Finance Asia. Before working for Bloomberg, Michelle worked for various international and Chinese Investment banks. Her areas of expertise extend across sectors such as metals and mining and utilities in Asia. Notably, she has been recognized as one of the top-ranked analysts for institutional investor and...
