AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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India’s aluminium scrap imports from UAE, Saudi & UK spark new trade momentum – is dependency on US gradually decreasing?
The demand for aluminium scrap in India is on the rise, standing at 2.5 million tonnes (approx.) , driven by increasing focus on circular economy principles and the need for sustainable manufacturing practices. As per the Ministry of Commerce and Industry data, India imported a total of 0.42 million tonnes of aluminium scrap during Q1 2025, jumping from 0.34 million tonnes in Q1 2024. If India continues to import in the same way, then the scenario may come to 1.6 million tonnes every year out of the 2.5 million tonnes. In Q1 2025 India imported a total of 45,661 tonnes of aluminium scrap from the UAE, recording a surge of 20.37 per cent from 37,931 tonnes in Q1 2024. The other two regions that showed considerable growth were Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. During Q1 2025, India...
India’s USD 1.5 trillion plan: Will heavy industries be the collateral damage?
India’s climate ambitions just received a reality check. But it is going to be one with a USD 1.5 trillion price tag. A new Deloitte-backed report has laid out the math for New Delhi’s decarbonisation journey through 2030, and the numbers are not for the faint-hearted. To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement, including 500 GW of non-fossil capacity and major emissions reductions across sectors, India will need to unlock an investment corpus that is nearly half its current GDP. Image for representational purposes only But this isn’t just a green finance problem. This is a hard-asset dilemma. What India is being asked to build at unprecedented scale and speed sits at the intersection of policy ambition and industrial inertia. And that makes this not just a climate story, but one...
Powering progress: ASEAN’s clean energy momentum and aluminium sector’s low-carbon shift
ASEAN’s shift to renewable energy is being slowed not by technology or cost. Although solar PV prices have plunged 80 per cent and battery costs by 70 per cent over the past decade, the region lacks unified policy frameworks like harmonised renewable energy certificates, emissions accounting, and coherent regional regulations. Southeast Asia is positioned at a critical juncture in its energy transition, with electricity demand across the ASEAN bloc expected to rise by 30 per cent by 2030, driven by urban expansion, higher income levels and accelerating digitalisation. Moreover, the government is underway to demonstrate rapid clean energy deployment, which is significantly possible under promising conditions. Vietnam & Indonesia’s energy collaboration Vietnam, in 2020, became the...
Are Europe’s airlines stuck as Boeing and Airbus struggle to deliver?
European air travel, particularly short-haul flights, is facing mounting challenges due to persistent aircraft delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus. These bottlenecks are threatening to limit traffic growth, raise operating costs, and undermine environmental targets for the rest of the decade. Image for representational purpose In its Q1 FY2026 update, Ryanair reported a 4 per cent year-on-year rise in passenger volumes and a consistent load factor of 94 per cent, yet it projected only a 3 per cent growth in full-year traffic to 206 million passengers, citing heavily delayed Boeing deliveries. Ryanair stated, "We believe European short-haul capacity will remain constrained for the next five years to 2030 as the big two OEMs remain well behind on aircraft deliveries." In the first half...
GACC: China's H1 alumina exports surge 66% YoY
China's exports of alumina including metallurgical-grade totalled 170,981 tonnes in June, down by 17.7 per cent from May but up by 8.9 per cent from the same month in 2024, according to the latest data released by the country's General Administration of Customs (GACC). Last month's decline marked the third consecutive on-month decrease in alumina exports, Mysteel Global noted. The June figure brought China's total alumina exports over the first half of 2025 to 1.34 million tonnes, representing a sharp 65.7 per cent increase from the January-June period last year, the GACC data showed. Russia remained the largest buyer of China's alumina, accounting for 86.7 per cent of June's total exports. However, shipments to Russia fell by 19.1 per cent from May to 148,326 tonnes, according to the...
Hydro’s strong EBITDA growth in Q2 2025 is toned down by cautious outlook and cost discipline
Amid an uncertain market trend across the globe, Norsk Hydro from Norway has managed to show resilience in its fiscal Q2 2025 performance, supported by firm aluminium and energy prices. The company reported a 33.41 per cent year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching NOK 7,790 million from NOK 5,839 million. However, beneath these headline numbers lies a more nuanced narrative that reveals both strengths and vulnerabilities shaping Hydro’s strategic trajectory. Caution behind confidence While Hydro’s annual EBITDA growth is noteworthy, the sequential figures suggest growing headwinds. Adjusted EBITDA declined 18.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter from NOK 9,516 million. Revenue followed a similar trend, contracting by7 per cent from Q1, although it still rose 4.26 per cent Y-o-Y to NOK...
WEEKLY: China's spot alumina prices rise on tight supply, slower output growth
China's spot alumina prices edged higher during the week of July 11-17 amid temporary supply tightness in the domestic spot market. Image for referential purposes only According to Mysteel's price assessment, the national price for smelter-grade alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent had risen by 1.1 per cent from July 10 to reach Yuan 3,193/tonne ($445/t) on July 17. This followed a 1.2 per cent increase recorded during the previous week. Last week's price gains were largely driven by reduced availability of spot goods, as output growth slowed. This was primarily due to ongoing maintenance stoppages at two alumina producers in Shandong province and the Guangxi autonomous region which began in early July and have continued to constrain production, market analysts noted. During the same...
US strikes bilateral deal with Southeast Asia! EU exports face the heat, India watches keenly
As the United States deepens its bilateral trade ties with Indonesia and Vietnam, a lion’s share of European exports to these Southeast Asian economies faces a potential risk of trade dislodgment. According to a recent media analysis, around 10 per cent of the European Union’s total exports to these two nations are now under competitive threat due to newly signed preferential trade agreements between Washington and the two southeastern nations. Image for referential purposes only Scale of the potential disruption In 2023, the EU exported EUR 11.4 billion of goods to Vietnam (and imported EUR 47.7 billion), while trade with Indonesia stood at EUR 11.3 billion of export goods (and import of EUR 18.4 billion), as per Eurostat data. Based on a modelling assumption, if 10-12 per cent of that...
Canada to revise 25% tariff on the US trade on aluminium & steel?
A new development has surfaced in the US–Canada trade relationship. As of July 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a potential revision of the existing 25 per cent retaliatory tariff on US aluminium and steel products. This move is contingent upon the outcome of trade negotiations between the two nations and if no agreement is reached within the next 30 days, the tariff structure will be reassessed. The announcement follows a formal policy update issued in July, establishing a conditional framework to guide tariff adjustments based on the progress and direction of ongoing bilateral discussions. A throwback to the ongoing trade tension between the US and Canada The trade tensions between the US and Canada escalated when the US imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian...
Bahrain’s $7bn Boeing order highlights resilient US trade partnerships
The US Department of Commerce signed a landmark commercial agreement between Boeing and Bahrain’s Gulf Air for the purchase of up to eighteen 787 Dreamliner aircraft, valued at USD 7 billion. The deal is expected to support more than 400,000 US jobs during production and delivery, reinforcing Gulf Air’s commitment to operating an all-Boeing widebody fleet. Image Source: International Trade Administration Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said, “Today’s deal between Boeing and Gulf Air is yet another example of how companies are working with this administration to invest in America at historic levels. American workers, industry, and technology are the best in the world, and this deal demonstrates that.” The agreement adds to a record-breaking year for US commercial deals, with 87...
AL Circle x Industrial Physics: Safeguarding aluminium packaging quality in a circular economy
Stefan Welker brings over 18 years of dedicated experience in the packaging industry, with a strong focus on inspection systems. His expertise spans the entire process from designing and specifying systems to developing advanced measurement and image processing solutions. This conversation offers a deep dive into how Industrial Physics is driving quality assurance and innovation in the aluminium packaging value chain, particularly as the world pivots toward sustainability and circularity. As sustainability gains momentum and recycled aluminium becomes more prevalent (and often more variable in quality), precise testing becomes essential. He further provided overview about how Industrial Physics helps detect faults early, reduce waste, and prevent costly recalls all while supporting...
US targets India, Indonesia & Laos with import tariffs on solar panels – a covert move to shield domestic aluminium industry?
The United States’ dumping allegation against India has now extended beyond aluminium to include solar panels. Indonesia and Laos are also carrying similar accusations, as a group of US solar panel manufacturers have claimed that an influx of cheap products from these countries is harming the domestic market of solar items. Image source: Britannica On Thursday, July 17, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade filed a formal petition, citing the surge in imports from Indonesia, Laos, and India intensified following the imposition of steep tariffs of up to 3,500 per cent on solar panels imported from Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The allegation is clear that the countries hit by US tariffs are rerouting their solar exports through these new channels to sidestep...
Maan Aluminium’s stock surges over 60% since March—what’s fuelling the comeback?
Maan Aluminium, a manufacturer and trader of aluminium profiles, has seen a sharp rise in its stock price to INR 122.95 (USD 1.43) as of July 21, marking a significant recovery from earlier lows this year. Image for representational purpose The stock’s recent surge follows a challenging period beginning in late February 2025. On February 25, Maan Aluminium was trading at INR 97.50 (USD 1.12) but quickly slipped amid sector volatility and broader market weakness. After a market holiday on February 26, the stock declined further to INR 92.74 (USD 1.06) on February 27, then dropped below INR 90 (USD 1.03) and closed at INR 89.56 (USD 1.03) by February 28. The downtrend continued into March, culminating in a 52-week low of INR 75.51 (USD 0.88) on March 28. However, the tide began to turn...
DAILY: China's spot alumina prices see regional rises, futures surge on policy optimism
Chinese spot alumina prices mostly held steady on July 18, while futures prices surged on the back of improved market sentiment. Among China's five key alumina-producing areas, spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent in Guizhou province and the Guangxi autonomous region both edged higher by RMB 10 per tonne (USD 1.4 per tonne) on day to reach RMB 3,260 per tonne and RMB 3,275 per tonne respectively on July 18, according to Mysteel's assessment. Meanwhile, the assessed prices for the same grade held steady on day at RMB 3,140-3,160 per tonne in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi provinces. Price gains in the Southwestern regions were largely driven by stronger demand from newly commissioned primary aluminum production capacity there in recent weeks, market...
EU announces anti-dumping duties on Chinese fused alumina
The European Commission has officially announced imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on fused alumina imports from China. This time, it is a move to resolve to protect Europe’s domestic industry from market distortions. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1456, adopted on July 17, 2025, delivers a stern warning to China’s state-backed industrial juggernaut: unfair trade practices will no longer be overlooked. Image for referential purposes only At the core of the Commission’s decision lies the recognition that fused alumina, rather commonly known as artificial corundum, derived from melting bauxite or aluminium oxide at over 2,000 °C, has been imported from China at dumped prices, causing material injury to the European Union’s domestic producers. The action follows a...
With the August 1 deadline looming, can the EU and US avoid a full-blown trade war?
As trade tensions between the European Union and the US reach a critical point, the EU is preparing a second wave of retaliatory tariffs targeting billions of dollars in US exports each year. This move comes amid stalled negotiations and the looming threat of the US imposing steep 30 per cent tariffs on nearly all EU goods starting August 1. Caught off guard by the sudden threat of these duties, the European Commission swiftly responded with plans to impose counter tariffs on US exports valued at EUR 72 billion, a measure that could also impact the EU’s own economy. With both sides gearing up for a potential trade showdown, the stakes are higher than ever for industries on both continents. What is the EU’s second retaliatory tariff package? The European Commission has tabled plans to...
Enhanced molten aluminium trade is a fruit of the dim billet market in H1’25
European aluminium billet manufacturers entered 2025 with caution, and by mid-year, that caution had hardened into sweeping production cuts. The billet market, once a bellwether for demand in construction, transport, and extrusion-heavy sectors, has weakened considerably in the first half of the year. In response, a notable shift has emerged: aluminium producers are pivoting towards enhanced molten metal trade as an alternative channel to absorb surplus capacity and meet more immediate domestic needs. Image for referential purposes only (source: https://www.syalons.com/) The strategic shift is not merely opportunistic. It’s a calculated survival tactic rooted in price pressures and vanishing demand. The billet problem Aluminium prices, both for primary and alloy grades, have fluctuated at...
NBS: China's H1 alumina output up 9.3% Y-o-Y in H1 2025
China's total alumina output, including smelter-grade alumina and other types, rose by 9.3 per cent year-on-year to reach 45.15 million tonnes during the first half of 2025, according to the latest data released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In June alone, China produced 7.75 million tonnes of alumina, up by 3.5 per cent from May and by 7.8 per cent from the same month last year, the NBS data showed. East China's Shandong province, North China's Shanxi province, and Southwest China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region remained the country's top three alumina-producing regions last month, Mysteel Global noted. Alumina production in Shandong and Guangxi grew by 3.4 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, from May to reach 2.76 million tonnes and 1.47 million tonnes...
