As the clock ticks toward an August 1 trade deadline, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pressuring the federal government to respond decisively to escalating US tariffs. Ford has urged Ottawa to impose matching 50 per cent tariffs on American steel and aluminium, should talks fail to produce a new bilateral deal.
Speaking at Queen’s Park on Monday, Ford said, “We are working on Aug 1 and we will see what comes from that. But I have always taken the approach dollar-for-dollar and tariff-for-tariff. If he (Trump) wants to attack our hardworking steel workers and aluminium workers, then we have to meet that 50 per cent tariff.”
His comments come in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat of an additional 35 per cent tariff on a wider list of Canadian goods, a move that would add to the damage already done by a 50 per cent steel and aluminium duty imposed on June 4.
The US - Canada tariff timeline
Trade tensions between the two nations have steadily escalated in 2025. The US fired the first shot on March 12, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and aluminium, targeting global suppliers but disproportionately affecting Canada, the US’s largest source of both metals.
The situation worsened on June 4, when Washington doubled the tariffs to 50 per cent and extended the coverage to downstream products, including auto components, metal packaging, and electrical parts.
Ottawa responded on March 13 with retaliatory duties on CAD 29.8 billion worth of US goods, ranging from metals to household staples. Ford supports going further, calling for parity if a deal isn’t reached.
Ford questioned why Canada—America’s largest trading partner was being treated on par with nations like Japan and the EU, both of which accepted 15 per cent tariffs in separate US deals.
“I use Japan as an example. They buy USD 79 billion of (US) products. We (Canada) buy USD 359 billion of products. You can’t treat your number one customer the same as your whatever, fifth-largest customer,” he argued. “We are different, we are unique, and we are so intertwined, our economies.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed on Monday that negotiations had reached “an intense phase,” though few public details have emerged. Ford voiced cautious optimism, adding:
“I’m never confident with President Trump, but I am confident that Carney is doing his very best to get a deal.”
Industries on edge: jobs, imports and supply chains at risk
The stakes are enormous for Canada’s economy especially its manufacturing heartland in Ontario and Quebec. Canada supplies over 50 per cent of the aluminium and a major share of the steel used in the US, meaning any trade disruption directly impacts production, employment, and pricing.
Industry groups estimate the current tariffs have already endangered over 23,000 direct jobs in Canadian steel, plus more than 100,000 indirect jobs in supply chains, construction, and auto manufacturing.
The ripple effects are becoming visible in trade data. In Q1 2025, US imports of aluminium plates, sheets, and bars fell to 56,300 tonnes, down from 57,800 tonnes in Q1 2024, a 2.6 per cent decline year-on-year. Rising input costs and uncertainty appear to be dampening demand across sectors.
A Boston Consulting Group report further warned that ongoing tariffs could add up to USD50 billion in costs across North American supply chains, affecting everything from car assembly lines to consumer packaging.
Can retaliation work? Economists say no
Despite political pressure, economists warn that retaliating with identical tariffs may hurt Canada more than it helps. Brookings and Reuters report show that if Canada mirrors US tariffs at 50 per cent, it risks a GDP contraction of more than 3 per cent, compared to less than that under passive compliance.
Worse, the burden is likely to fall on consumers and manufacturers. Inflation could rise by 3–4 per cent points, driven by the cost of imported goods and disrupted production chains.
The Bank of Canada has already flagged serious concerns. In its most recent report, the central bank delayed issuing forward guidance, citing uncertainty over tariffs. It warned that provinces like Ontario and Quebec most reliant on US trade face the highest risk of slipping into recession.
Ford remains hopeful that a last-minute breakthrough could still defuse the situation.
Ford said, “I really hope so for the sake of Canadians and Americans. We are so integrated.” But with only days left before new US tariffs could take effect, Canada faces a difficult choice: strike back and risk deeper economic pain, or absorb the damage quietly and hope for long-term gains.
Whatever path Ottawa chooses, the outcome will test not just the resilience of Canadian industry, but the strength of one of the world’s most economically integrated partnerships.
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