AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Ghana revokes Rocksure's lease. What's ahead in its mining strategy?
With Guinea revoking more than 129 licenses of the bauxite miners , Ghana is now following a similar step. Starting with a local firm, Rocksure International, Ghana has cancelled the bauxite lease worth USD 1.2 billion. The major cause behind the cancellation was the lease being ratified by the parliament. Under Ghana’s legal framework, a landmark 2019 Supreme Court decision, widely known as the “Exton Cubic ruling” established that any mining lease not ratified by Parliament is deemed legally void. This legal precedent empowered the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources to formally notify Rocksure of the termination of its mining lease. After cancelling the lease of its local firm, Rocksure International, Ghana is currently seeking a partnership with international companies. The major...
300 TWh hydropower project in Tibet - what it means for China’s aluminium industry?
In a landmark move aligning economic ambition with climate strategy, China has commenced construction on the colossal Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project worth USD 168 million in Tibet. A massive clean energy initiative, this project is expected to reshape regional energy flows and significantly impact the aluminium industry by shouldering power supply responsibility with Yunnan. Powering a nation and its aluminium sector In Nyingchi, Premier Li Qiang announced the "project of the century", highlighting its strategic relevance for the nation. The five-dam complex along the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to generate 300 terawatt hours (TWh) of power annually by 2035, which is greater than the UK's annual power consumption at present. The scope of this project, with a total estimated cost...
You shouldn’t smash aluminium cans before recycling. Here’s why
Recycling is one of the easiest ways to do right by the planet, but doing it correctly takes more than tossing old metal into the bin and calling it a day. While most of us know we should recycle, the how of it often gets murky. Image credit: www.justdial.com Rinsing out aluminium cans, cleaning up old cookware and removing non‑metal parts from small appliances is the tip. And if you're still crushing your cans flat before tossing them? Don’t. Experts say that this can mess with sorting machines that rely on shape to ID and direct materials to the right place. The bottom line is that steel and aluminium can be recycled endlessly without degrading, so it’s worth doing right. Why shaping matters & recycling rates you should know Global aluminium recycling efficiency remains at 76 per cent,...
Tariff-for-tariff? Ford pressures Ottawa as US deadline nears
As the clock ticks toward an August 1 trade deadline, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is pressuring the federal government to respond decisively to escalating US tariffs. Ford has urged Ottawa to impose matching 50 per cent tariffs on American steel and aluminium, should talks fail to produce a new bilateral deal. Speaking at Queen’s Park on Monday, Ford said, “We are working on Aug 1 and we will see what comes from that. But I have always taken the approach dollar-for-dollar and tariff-for-tariff. If he (Trump) wants to attack our hardworking steel workers and aluminium workers, then we have to meet that 50 per cent tariff.” His comments come in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat of an additional 35 per cent tariff on a wider list of Canadian goods, a move that would add to the...
China's energy-intensive industries face 40% green power mandate by 2030
China's green electricity market reached a milestone in Q1 2025, with nearly 2 trillion green electricity certificates (GECs) traded - roughly one-third of total historical volume. In April, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), alongside other ministries, announced plans to expand mandatory green power consumption to a broader set of energy-intensive sectors. The petrochemical and chemical industries are now expected to accelerate their transition to green power, with a target to meet or surpass the national average share of green power in total electricity consumption (40 per cent) by 2030. Policy focus: expanding binding green power requirements Target sectors: Petrochemicals, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and data centers (in 2024, only the...
Volker Hoffmann from CeraNovis and AL Circle converse on the aluminium market’s shift from cost and quality to sustainability
Volker Hofmann is the Head of Sales and Product Management at CeraNovis GmbH, a Saarbrücken-based specialist in high-performance coatings for foundries and casthouses. A qualified engineer in Foundry and Materials Technology (Dipl.-Ing. FH), Hofmann brings over three decades of experience across Europe’s metallurgical and casting sectors. His career spans leadership roles in the vonRoll Foundry Group, P&S Foundry, and the European Foundry Group, with a particular focus on Tier 1 automotive supply. Before co-founding CeraNovis in 2012 as a spin-off from ItN Nanovation AG, he led the development of nanotechnology-based coating solutions for metal processing industries. Fluent in German, English, and French, Hofmann is recognised for his deep technical expertise and strategic insight into...
The US-UK deal just ahead of August 1 hits pause on a TRADE TUSSLE. Triumph or Compromise?
The August 1 deadline looms just around the corner, and countries across the globe are preparing last-minute either to crack a deal with the US ahead of the reciprocal tariff implementation or to combat the ripple effect of the tariff across supply chains. In the meantime, when the world’s two largest economies, the United States and the European Union, managed to avert a full-throated trade tussle, they did so with what protagonists would call a compromise, and critics dub an asymmetric capitulation. In a high-stakes meeting at Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a framework deal with a 15 per cent US tariff on about 70 per cent of EU exports, including cars, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors,...
EU deploys new scrap‑metal customs surveillance to tackle leakage
Brussels has stopped watching from the sidelines. As the global metals trade grows more asymmetric and carbon commitments face real-world constraints, the European Commission’s decision to implement surveillance on scrap metal imports and exports has moved far beyond being a regulatory formality to a high-stakes chess move in an escalating global scrap tussle. Image for referential purposes only On July 23, 2025, the European Commission launched an official customs surveillance mechanism to monitor all EU-bound and outbound flows of steel, aluminium, and copper scrap. Though presented as a data-gathering initiative under the Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP), this policy shift is anything but passive. It is a direct response to growing export leakages, tightening scrap availability...
DAILY: China's spot alumina prices hold steady, futures soften
Chinese spot alumina prices held steady across China's five key alumina-producing regions on July 25, while buying activity slowed as most downstream primary aluminium smelters turned cautious towards spot purchases. The same day, domestic alumina futures prices plunged during the nighttime trading session after earlier gains. Mysteel assessed spot prices for smelter-grade alumina with purity exceeding 98.6 per cent unchanged in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, and Guizhou provinces and in the Guangxi autonomous region, within a range of RMB 3,195 per tonne (USD 446 per tonne) to RMB 3,315 per tonne on Friday. In the derivatives market, alumina futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) weakened during Friday's nighttime session. The most-traded September contract slumped by 6.3 per cent by...
H1 2025: World primary aluminium output grows despite market headwinds, with China and emerging regions driving gains
The world primary aluminium production seems to have withstood all the recent hurdles like escalating trade tensions, raw material costs, and supply chain disruptions with a decent growth rate of 1.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Albeit a slower than in 2024, the growth in the world’s primary aluminium production in Q2 2025 was largely encouraged by the bullish aluminium price trend on the London Metal Exchange, ranging between USD 2,499 per tonne and USD 2,593 per tonne. However, the increased LME alumina (Platts) price reaching above USD 363 per tonne dampened the mood of primary aluminium producers slightly, offsetting the output volume. Nonetheless, the world primary aluminium production closed the H1 with a Y-o-Y hike, amounting to 36.459 million tonnes versus...
No carbon relief in UK trade deal — is India’s aluminium industry at risk?
India's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the UK, signed with hopes of unlocking duty-free market access, has come under fire from trade experts and industry leaders for omitting carbon tax exemptions. This omission, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), could undermine Indian exports worth USD 775 million annually, including key commodities like aluminium, steel, fertiliser, and cement, starting in 2027. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said, "From January 2027, the UK can impose carbon taxes on Indian steel and aluminium, even as we grant UK goods duty-free access. That's a serious asymmetry." The UK plans to roll out its own Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), following the European Union's lead, to tax high-carbon imports. This border levy will apply to sectors...
Trump’s conscious move to exempt aluminium scrap from tariff is reflecting on booming recycling market
When the US slapped a steep 50 per cent tariff on imported aluminium earlier this year, it was pitched as a bold step to revive the country’s flagging smelters and bring metal production back home. But on the ground, something quite different is happening: scrapyards, not smelters are thriving. Across the country, aluminium recyclers are experiencing a surge in demand as manufacturers look for ways to cut costs amid spiking metal prices. With tariffs driving up the price of imported primary aluminium, many downstream industries are shifting toward recycled aluminium, which is cheaper, faster to process, and conveniently free from trade restrictions. With import prices soaring, especially in the US Midwest, manufacturers are facing higher input costs. The Platts Midwest aluminium premium...
With Guinea restrategising its mining, is Ghana ready to anchor India’s bauxite imports?
India’s bauxite import is witnessing a turning point in 2025, as Ghana makes its debut as a key bauxite exporter, filling the void left by Guinea’s sudden export slump. Image for representational purpose According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, India imported 0.31 million tonnes of bauxite in Q1 2025, a staggering 76 per cent decline compared to 1.28 million tonnes in the same period last year. The plunge underscores both external supply constraints and internal realignments in India's aluminium industry. But despite the overall quarterly decline, March 2025 witnessed a brief rebound, with imports rising to 0.19 million tonnes, a 13 per cent year-on-year increase. Also read: Global Bauxite and Alumina Industry Outlook 2025 for deeper insights. Guinea’s collapse, Ghana’s gain The...
GACC: China's H1 aluminum scrap imports up 7% YoY
China's imports of aluminum scrap during January-June this year totalled 1.012 million tonnes, higher by 6.9 per cent compared with the same period last year, according to the latest data released by the country's General Administration and Customs (GACC). The increase in the overall import quantity in the first half of this year was driven mainly by the ongoing tightness of scrap supply in China, plus the steady buying demand of domestic secondary aluminum product manufacturers, Mysteel Global noted. Thailand remained the largest aluminum scrap supplier to China in H1, with its exports in the first six months totalling 262,255 tonnes, soaring 98.2 per cent on year and accounting for 25.9 per cent of China's total imports, according to GACC. Also read: India’s aluminium scrap imports from...
AL Circle in conversation with Tulip 3P’s CEO Priyank Jain on India’s Leading Wire & Cable Expo
Since its inception in 2015, the Cable & Wire Fair (CWF), organised by Tulip 3P Media Private Limited, has grown from a modest 3,000 sq. m. launch to a 35,000 sq. m. mega-expo. Featuring 500+ exhibitors from 20 countries and 15,000+ visitors from around 50 countries, the 6th edition (Nov 4–6, 2025), to be held with Tube & Pipe Fair (TPF) and Bharat Metal Expo (BME), includes two-day conference. Because of its deep industry understanding, the event is now a key gathering for India’s industrial development. Priyank Jain, CEO of Tulip 3P Media, recounts the development, goals, and influence of India’s premier wire and cable exhibition in this interview. AL Circle: How would you assess the wire & cable industry’s growth in connection with the fair? Priyank Jain: The Cable & Wire Fair is a...
50% tariffs on Canadian aluminium and steel bring US housing to suffer from an additional $10,000 construction cost
The American dream of owning a white-picket-fenced home is quietly being priced out - brick by brick, beam by beam. And no, this time it’s not inflation or rising mortgage rates to blame but tariffs it is, with a maple twist. According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, tariffs imposed on Canadian construction materials can potentially incur an additional cost of USD 10,000 to building a home in the United States by 2027, given some of the key construction materials used in building a house come from Canada. Such as 70 per cent of the lumber used in the US residential buildings, 25 per cent of iron and steel, and 18 per cent of copper. What more? Aluminium, which is widely used in the residential construction sector in US, comes from Canada, is tariff-stricken too. In 2024, the United...
US Court sustains Chinese firm's aluminium foil duty escapade verdict: a precedent for global commodity exporters
On July 21, 2025, the US Court of International Trade delivered a decisive ruling in Hanon Systems Alabama Corp. versus United States, rejecting the plaintiff’s challenge and sustaining the US Department of Commerce’s final affirmative determination in its anticircumvention inquiry on aluminium foil imports from South Korea. For India and other major aluminium foil exporters navigating an increasingly enforcement-heavy global trade environment, this ruling is a signal flare of the future, wherein circumvention scrutiny is beyond intent, and about consequence. Image for representational purposes only The crux of the case At the heart of the case was the US Commerce Department’s 2023 determination that certain aluminium foil completed in South Korea using Chinese-origin inputs was...
Global LNG exports and imports both up in June
Global liquefied natural gas exports and imports both climbed year-on-year in June 2025, yet the increase in exports decelerated, with the US still leading and the Middle East continuing expansion in exports. Image source: Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association Export landscape: US leads while Middle East continues expansion In June 2025, global LNG exports reached approximately 33,185,100 tonnes, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.30 per cent. Exports continued to rise, yet the growth rate slowed down. By country, the US consolidated its leading position with exports of 7,937,100 tonnes, up 12.36 per cent year-on-year, accounting for 23.92 per cent of global LNG exports. Qatar overtook Australia by 352,100 tonnes to claim second place, with exports reaching 6,636,200 tonnes compared to...
