AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Guinea strips EGA of concession, hands control to state backed miner
As of August 5, 2025, Guinea has revoked the bauxite concession previously awarded to Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), citing violations of the national mining code. The concession has been reassigned to a newly established state-backed entity. This move signals a potential strategic shift by Guinea towards prioritising domestic utilisation of mineral resources and reducing reliance on international operators. Dubai-based EGA, operating in Guinea through its subsidiary GAC, holds a 690-square-kilometre mining concession estimated to contain approximately 400 million tonnes of bauxite reserves. A decree issued late Monday stated that GAC failed to meet regulatory requirements mandating mining companies to submit refinery development plans....
DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices mark time
On Tuesday, Mysteel assessed physical prices for metallurgical-grade alumina with more than 98.6 per cent purity as unchanged in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guizhou provinces and in the Guangxi autonomous region, ranging between RMB 3,215 per tonne (USD 447 per tonne) and RMB 3,325 per tonne. The prices have held steady for around one week, Mysteel Global noted. Spot prices remain on hold mainly because of growing caution in the market, as signs have emerged that domestic alumina supplies are gradually loosening, according to market sources. Some traders reported improved logistics and material pick-up efficiency at alumina refineries in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei, indicating that the previous supply tightness has been alleviated, the sources added. As a result, trading activity in the spot...
World alumina production dips in June; H1 trend raises doubts over 2025 target
The world alumina production (including chemical-grade) witnessed a notable setback in June 2025, declining 3 per cent month-on-month to 12.147 million tonnes - the lowest monthly output since February, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). The downturn was driven by reduced output in both metallurgical and chemical-grade alumina, hinting at broader challenges across the supply chain. Chemical-grade alumina saw a sharp 8 per cent M-o-M decline, falling to 714,000 tonnes, while metallurgical-grade output slipped by 2.72 per cent to 11.433 million tonnes. Although metallurgical-grade alumina recorded a marginal year-on-year increase from 11.385 million tonnes, June’s figure was the second-lowest monthly total of the year, again trailing only February. For the second...
US–India trade friction deepens as US rejects consultation at WTO
Note: This image is AI-generated and for representation purpose only On August 5, 2025, the Indian government informed Parliament that the US has rejected its request for consultations at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) concerning the recent US tariffs on aluminium, steel and related products. Earlier, following Trump’s decision to double tariffs on aluminium and steel from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, India approached the WTO, arguing that these duties should not be classified as safeguard measures . The development now puts focus on how the US–India trade dynamics may evolve in the coming period. In a recent written response to the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada stated that the US has justified these measures on national security grounds....
WEEKLY: Pace of growth in Chinese alumina output, prices eases
Metallurgical-grade alumina output among the 44 Chinese producers regularly tracked by Mysteel totalled 1.85 million tonnes over July 25-31, higher by 0.9 per cent from the prior week, the results of Mysteel's latest survey showed. This marked the sixth consecutive weekly increase, though the pace slowed from the previous week's 2.2 per cent rise, Mysteel Global noted. The mixed impact of maintenance outages and production ramp-ups last week drove the modest rise in output, market sources suggested. An alumina producer in Guizhou province began a 10-day maintenance stoppage on an 800,000 tonnes per year production line on July 26. During the same week, two refiners in Guangxi autonomous region and Yunnan province raised their rates of production slightly to operate at 1.9 million tonnes...
Tariffs toll: Aluminium demand drops across North America amid weak PMIs
The protectionist tariff strategy once touted by US President Donald Trump to revitalise domestic aluminium and steel production appears to be yielding the opposite effect - at least in early 2025. Industry indicators point to a clear downturn, with aluminium demand and production trending downward during the first quarter of the year. Image credit: Aluminum Association PMI signals early warning The first signs of contraction came from industrial sentiment. Both the US and Canadian Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) dipped below the critical 50-point threshold in March 2025, registering at 49 and 46.3, respectively, indicating a shrinking manufacturing sector. Historically, a PMI below 50 signals a downturn in production and purchasing activity, which typically correlates with weakening...
Recent Thai-Cambodian border clashes: a threat to trade stability?
Despite ongoing border tensions and temporary checkpoint closures, trade between Thailand and Cambodia saw notable growth in early 2025, reflecting both resilience and underlying fragility in their cross-border economic ties. According to data released by Thailand’s Commerce Ministry on Monday, bilateral trade rose by 3.33 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching baht 95.147 billion, even as geopolitical tensions began to strain logistics and erode market confidence. The 2025 conflict between Thailand and Cambodia was triggered in late May when a Cambodian soldier was killed, reigniting a long-standing territorial dispute. The situation escalated sharply on July 24, when heavy fighting broke out. By July 27, clashes had spread to 12 border locations, resulting in...
India dethrones China in US smartphone exports, but the real story is aluminium
In a historic pivot that stresses the tectonic shifts in global electronics manufacturing, India has overtaken China as the top source of smartphones sold in the United States. According to Canalys, in the second quarter of 2025, India accounted for a staggering 44 per cent of US-bound smartphone shipments, surpassing China, whose share fell to just 25 per cent, down from over 60 per cent a year earlier. Vietnam, where Samsung Electronics Co. has concentrated much of its manufacturing muscle, ranked second. Image for representational purposes only The shift, while driven by the mobility strategies of Apple Inc. and its supply chain, carries far-reaching consequences for materials markets — aluminium foremost among them. The acceleration of Indian electronics exports is the downstream...
Aluminium supersedes plastic: a sustainable shift emerging in the US, UK, & Canada
According to PMMI’s 2024 State of the Industry US Packaging Machinery Report, packaging machinery manufacturers are actively innovating to support aluminium and other eco-friendly materials, aiming to capitalise on the growing demand for sustainable solutions. This shift comes as sustainability becomes a defining force in reshaping the packaging industry. While the US continues to have less stringent packaging regulations than the European Union, leading companies across North America are increasingly embracing aluminium-based sustainable packaging solutions. Recognised for its recyclability, light weight, and relatively low environmental footprint compared to plastic, aluminium is playing a pivotal role as brands and manufacturers respond to mounting regulatory pressure and evolving...
DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices hold steady, futures
Chinese alumina prices for spot sales remained largely stable across China's five key alumina-producing hubs on August 1, while futures prices declined further. Image is for referential purposes only Last Friday, Mysteel assessed spot prices for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent unchanged in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, and Guizhou provinces and in the Guangxi autonomous region, at a range between RMB 3,215 per tonne (USD 447.4 per tonne) and RMB 3,325 per tonne. Meanwhile, domestic alumina futures extended their declines the same day. The most-traded September alumina contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) dropped for the fourth consecutive trading day, sliding 2.86 per cent by the close of Friday's daytime trading session and losing a further 1.2 per cent...
EU-US to forge a common shield, a metals alliance as industrial sovereignty in action
When the European Union and the United States announced the formation of a new “metals alliance” on July 28, 2025, it signalled more than just tariff alignment. It marked a turning point, a coordinated effort to shield their domestic metals sectors from a common adversary: China’s state-driven overcapacity, particularly in steel and aluminium. While the alliance has been framed around steel safeguards and trade architecture, it is aluminium that now demands equal, if not greater, strategic focus. Image source: https://assets.weforum.org/ The proposed framework aims to replace Section 232-era tariffs with quota-based access to the US market for EU metals and jointly coordinate trade defence tools across aluminium, copper, and steel. European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič summed up the...
Vedanta Q1: Profit down 13%, aluminium underperforms! So, how did EBITDA hit a record?
Vedanta Limited missed quarterly profit estimates for the first quarter of FY26, as weaker aluminium and copper prices, coupled with a sharp increase in tax expenses, weighed on earnings. Despite strong domestic demand and robust operational performance across its business segments, the metals-to-oil conglomerate saw its bottom line shrink. Image source: Vedanta In Q1 FY26, Vedanta reported a consolidated net profit of INR 4,457 crore, down 13 per cent from INR 5,095 crore in the same quarter last year. This decline came even as revenue rose 6 per cent year-on-year to INR 37,434 crore, up from INR 35,239 crore in Q1 FY25, supported by higher product premiums and favourable foreign exchange movements. The dip in profit was primarily driven by a steep rise in tax expenses, which nearly...
FLASH: Twelve Chinese non-ferrous firms make 2025 Fortune Global 500 list
A total of 12 Chinese non-ferrous metal companies made the 2025 Fortune Global 500 list of the world's largest firms by revenue, China Nonferrous Metals News (CNMN) noted from Fortune China's release on July 29. Image for referential purposes only (Source: Linkedin) The top three among the 12 firms were China Minmetals, Jiangxi Copper, and Shandong Weiqiao Pioneering Group, ranking 86th, 165th, and 166th, respectively. Shandong Weiqiao Pioneering Group, the parent company of Chinese aluminium giant China Hongqiao Group, secured a place on the list for the 14th consecutive year in 2025 with an annual revenue of USD 77.63 billion. Its ranking rose by nine spots from last year to reach 166th. Following closely was another aluminium conglomerate, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco),...
Impact Minerals yet again as lowest-cost global HPA producer - Lake Hope's PFS released
Impact Minerals has once again confirmed its position as the lowest-cost global HPA producer with its recent release of a Pre‑Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Lake Hope High‑Purity Alumina (HPA) project in Western Australia. According to the PFS, the Net Present Value (NPV₁₀) is no less than AUD 1.165 billion (USD 746 million), a flat‑line CapEx of AUD 259 million (USD 167 million), and operating costs of ~USD 5,860 per tonne. However, it shows a potential of sliding below USD 4500 with the byproduct credits. Strategy meets scale: Impact Mineral’s vision for HPA growth Pilot plant & government-backed innovation A pilot plant is underway with CAD 2.87 million (USD 2.07 million) in UK‑PCRC funding, partnered between CPC Engineering and Edith Cowan University. The plant is focused on membrane...
From Canada to Europe - a noticeable shift in US aluminium sourcing
Canadian aluminium smelters are sharply reducing primary metal exports to the US following an escalation in tariffs under the Trump administration. Beginning in March 2025, the US reinstated a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian aluminium, which was then unexpectedly doubled to 50 per cent in June, causing significant disruption to established trade flows and leaving Canadian exporters little time to adjust. Major producers such as Alcoa Corp have led this shift by diverting more than 100,000 metric tons of Canadian aluminium away from US buyers to alternative global markets, mainly in Europe. This pivot has been facilitated by the fact that approximately 30 per cent of Alcoa's Canadian production is not bound by annual contracts, allowing flexible redirection to more favourable markets....
Seaborne bauxite prices see downward pressure amid high port inventory
As of July 29, Mysteel's daily assessment for Guinea bauxite (Al:45%,Si:3%) was USD 73 per dry metric tonne (dmt), unchanged from a week ago, but down USD 1 per dry metric tonne from a month ago. The assessment for Australia bauxite (Al:50%,Si:6.5%) remained flat at USD 69 per dry metric tonne. Seaborne bauxite prices remained flat last week. Despite increasing spot trades, the transaction prices mostly showed no changes in the trend. On the supply side, we observed a visible W-o-W increase in the shipments in Guinea last week. However, it's still at a low level due to the impact of the wet season and the supply disruption in the AXIS mining area. A Chinese-invested mining company in Guinea's AXIS mining area was heard to prepare for resumption of production. However, according to...
DAILY: Chinese spot alumina prices edge higher
Chinese alumina prices for spot sales generally tracked higher across China's five alumina-producing areas on July 29, and those for domestic futures contracts also rebounded. Image for referential purposes only On Tuesday, Mysteel assessed the spot prices for smelter-grade alumina with purity exceeding 98.6 per cent at RMB 5 per tonne (USD 0.7 per tonne) higher from Monday in Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou provinces and in the Guangxi autonomous region. Prices in these areas averaged between RMB 3,205 per tonne and RMB 3,325 per tonne. Similarly, the assessed price for Shanxi province material rose by a larger RMB 10 per tonne on day to reach RMB 3,240 per tonne the same day, Mysteel's daily tracking showed. The rises in spot alumina prices signalled firming sentiment among participants in...
With services PMI at 53.5 in July, can Japan rely on domestic demand amid export struggles?
A trade agreement between Japan and the US in July 2025 provided partial tariff relief, but ongoing challenges particularly in aluminium and auto parts continued to weigh on Japan’s manufacturing output. While services accelerated domestic demand, the country’s industrial base remained under pressure amid evolving global trade dynamics. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.8 in July, dipping below the crucial 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. This marked a reversal from June’s 50.1, the first expansion reading in over a year. Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence Annabel Fiddes said, “Business activity across Japan's private sector continued to expand at the start of the third quarter, fuelled by...
