After a decline last month, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production grew in October 2024, marking a M-o-M increase of 2.93 per cent, according to the Shanghai Metals Market survey. The output also escalated by 6.51 per cent year-on-year, backed by capacity expansion and higher operating rate.
Exceeding the initial forecast of 1.73 per cent M-o-M growth, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in October is estimated to have amounted to 7.112 million tonnes versus 6.91 million tonnes in September. Notably, the country's monthly output volume yet again surpassed the 7 million tonnes benchmark but fell short of 1.5 per cent to touch the August production.
From January to October 2024, China's total production of metallurgical-grade alumina was recorded at 68.708 million tonnes, up by 3.69 per cent from 66.264 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year.
As of November 7, China's existing capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was up by 1.1 million tonnes M-o-M to 102.7 million tonnes, with the actual operating capacity growing 2.93 per cent and the operating rate standing at 84.22 per cent.
According to SMM, China's alumina output in October was partially offset by reduced roasting process due to the issuance of heavy pollution weather warnings in North China and also because of equipment failures, affecting short-term operating capacity. In Chongqing province, an alumina refinery conducted phased maintenance at the end of the month, which also impacted China's alumina production capacity. In addition, the tight supply of bauxite due to shipment disruptions from Guinea partially affected alumina production. However, some alumina refineries accelerating production counterbalanced China's October alumina output, leading to both M-o-M and Y-o-Y increases.
Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production
In contrast to China's domestic alumina output growth, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 1.3 per cent Y-o-Y, leading to cumulative output from January to October down by 0.1 per cent annually.
The average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries was 79.9 per cent, up 1 per cent M-o-M but down 4 per cent Y-o-Y. India's Vedanta Lanjigarh alumina refinery contributed to the global alumina production downtrend with its output declining due to insufficient bauxite, having a capacity of 2 million tonnes. Vedanta expects the commissioning of the Sijimali bauxite mine in India next year will support Lanjigarh's production capacity, ramping up to 3.5 million tonnes and 5 million tonnes in the long run.
China's November alumina production outlook
Entering November, some new alumina capacities may finish ramping up, leading to a capacity increase to 87.32 million tonnes per annum at the end of the month. The country's daily average production is estimated to increase by 1.77 per cent M-o-M. But it is to see how these enhanced capacities operate in the long run amid skyrocketing buying prices of the ore and tight supply of bauxite.
