In September 2024, China’s monthly production of metallurgical-grade alumina retreated from its peak by losing 4.27 per cent month-on-month. However, on a year-on-year basis, the output in September increased by 2.69 per cent from 6.732 million tonnes.
Based on the above data provided by the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production is estimated to have amounted to 6.91 million tonnes in September versus 7.22 million tonnes in August 2024. From January to September, China’s total output of metallurgical-grade alumina was 61.596 million tonnes, up 3.66 per cent Y-o-Y.
SMM further showed China’s existing capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina increased by 1 million tonnes to 101.6 million tonnes, with the actual operating capacity down by 1.3 per cent M-o-M and an operating rate of 82.71 per cent versus 84.63 per cent in July.
The downfall in operating rates at refineries in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Shandong primarily contributed to decreased operating rates in September.
Region-wise operating rate
The operating rate in Hebei stood at 91.3 per cent during September 2024 after falling by 12.06 per cent M-o-M from 103.3 per cent, mainly due to maintenance work at refineries in early to mid-September. In Shanxi, the operating rate during the said month was 76.1 per cent, continuing to decrease by 2.01 per cent from 78.1 per cent in August owing to a tight supply of bauxite and some perpetuated capacity suspension because of technical upgrades.
In Henan, the operating rate of metallurgical-grade alumina during September was 61.6 per cent versus 63.9 per cent in August, primarily due to ongoing maintenance of some alumina refinery production lines in early September. In Shandong, the operating rate was 90.03 per cent in September, down by 5.9 per cent following an increase of 3.3 per cent M-o-M to 95.7 per cent in August. A new 1 million tonnes production line was completed at a local alumina refinery but did not contribute to monthly production until it started operations in early October.
In Guizhou and Guangxi, the operating rate in September was 84 per cent and 92.1 per cent, respectively, reflecting an uptrend of 6.61 per cent and 2.71 per cent from August.
Forecast for October 2024
Shanghai Metals Market survey indicates that amid production reduction plans and technical upgrades in several Chinese provinces, the monthly output in October is likely to grow by 1.73 per cent M-o-M, driven by the potential commissioning of new capacities at Shandong refineries and the completion of maintenance in Hebei and Guangxi. However, continued monitoring of alumina demand from resuming aluminium smelters in south-west China and the introduction of new capacities will be crucial for evaluating future output.
