Global aluminium value chain sees capacity expansions, trade shifts, premium spikes and volatile LME prices shaping 2026 outlook

The momentum in the global aluminium value chain is showing a complicated blend of growth, changing trade patterns and price fluctuations. As upstream mining, alumina production and downstream investments continue to develop together, the global aluminium industry is seeing everything from new capacity and cross-border resource transfers to spikes in premiums and shifting LME signals. These recent changes suggest that the industry is adjusting to focus on cost competitiveness, supply security and demand resilience as we look ahead to 2026.

All about growth with rising revenue & consumption

Metro Mining, by enhancing the Bauxite Hills operation in Cape York, is taking advantage of a 7 million-tonne expansion to meet the growing global demand for bauxite and the diverse needs of its customers. However, there will be a brief pause for seasonal maintenance. Production will begin in early March, with expectations for a stronger performance in the latter half of 2026, because of the favourable weather and tides. The company is focused on maximising value through ongoing expansion and improvement initiatives to establish itself as one of the lowest-cost suppliers in the Asia-Pacific market.

Australia's bauxite market domestically makes use of 51 per cent of its production and 41 per cent is exported. This positions the country as a major supplier for global alumina producers while also serving as a vital source for its own refining industry. With strong reserves, a well-integrated mining-to-refining setup and consistent export, mainly to China and other buyers in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia holds its place in the global supply chain. However, changing demand patterns, cost factors and trade relationships are influencing how production is divided between local use and international exports. Unlock the market stability. 

Impact Minerals Limited ended 2025 by sharing updates for the Q3 FY26 on Lake Hope High Purity Alumina (HPA) project and their overall financial performance, revealing a mix of cash-flow trends. Operating cash flow dropped by 17.1 per cent from AUD 580 thousand to AUD 481 thousand compared to the previous quarter. Simultaneously, investing cash flow increased by 48.8 per cent, climbing to AUD 1.09 million from AUD 732 thousand. However, financing cash flow fell by 99.3 per cent, falling to AUD 27 thousand from AUD 3.85 million. 

According to data from the International Aluminium Institute, in 2025, global alumina production climbed 5.07 per cent from the previous year to approximately 144.98 million tonnes, up from 137.88 million tonnes in 2024. The growth comes in even as primary aluminium output saw a modest increase of just 1.06 per cent. The rise in alumina is owed to a strong demand for metallurgical-grade alumina used in smelting, while chemical-grade alumina experienced a more modest growth of 3.15 per cent. From 2021 to 2024, the annual growth rates hovered between 2 per cent and 4 per cent. Notably, production rose in the latter half of 2025, with Q3 output jumping 5.9 per cent from the previous quarter and 6.36 per cent year-on-year. Learn more.

Weekly Upstream Aluminium Recap by AL Circle Pvt Ltd

Recent occurrence in imports & exports, globally 

Guinea’s bauxite exports have outpaced production by 3.3 per cent, showcasing a decline in stockpiles and a steady flow of shipments, mainly to China. With an estimated 7.4 billion tonnes of reserves, Guinea mostly exports its ore in raw form. In 2025, global shipments are projected to reach around 190 million tonnes, with approximately 138 million tonnes, which is  74 per cent and went to China in the first eleven months. Earlier figures indicate that 145 million tonnes were exported in 2024, with 110.2 million tonnes or 76 per cent sent to China. The growing gap between exports and production highlights the demand driven by China, along with logistical efficiencies and inventory releases.

Ukraine's bauxite imports in January 2026 plummeted to 97 tonnes from a hefty 5,556 tonnes in December. However, the region's growth notes that the figure is up from 31 tonnes compared to the same time last year. This drop highlights the ongoing instability caused by geopolitical tensions and the challenges of wartime logistics. The import value rose to about USD 83 thousand from USD 27 thousand, with China being the only supplier in January and no re-exports reported. Looking back at 2025, total imports climbed by 23.7 per cent to 43.5 thousand tonnes, which also represented a 15.8 per cent increase in value to around USD 4.7 million. Uncover more info here.

According to customs data from China, Pakistan’s aluminium ore exports to China made USD 14.16 million in 2025, marking an increase of over 47 hundred per cent from just USD 0.29 million. This surge highlights the rapidly growing trade in minerals between the two countries, driven by China’s increasing demand linked to electric vehicles, renewable energy and lightweight manufacturing. Pakistan has also seen a rise in other mineral shipments to China, including copper exports valued at USD 1.14 billion, iron ore exceeding USD 101 million, zinc ore at USD 110.9 million and chromium ore at USD 89.43 million. Unlock the trend behind it here. 

The aluminium premium in the US Midwest surged to USD 2 thousand per tonne in January 2026, hitting a record high due to tightening regional supply, rising logistics and financing costs and strong demand from major consumer sectors. This sharp increase in premium highlights ongoing supply-chain challenges, a decrease in available metal in the domestic market and a continued dependence on imports, all while LME price fluctuations remain unpredictable. Uncover the complete scoop.

India's recent trade agreements with the US and EU, which, however, notably lack specific provisions for this metal. While these deals promise broader tariff cuts and better market access that could indirectly benefit the sector, the absence of aluminium-focused commitments means that Indian producers might not get the preferential treatment they were hoping for in crucial export markets right away. Nonetheless, the overall improvements in trade terms, better regulatory alignment and stronger economic ties could still enhance competitiveness in the long run. Read more.

Latest developments in bauxite, alumina & primary AL 

Canyon Resources' Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is moving into the early stages of mining, where the surface-miner commissioning is expected in February 2026, with the first trial shipment expected in the third quarter of 2026. Full commercial operations are set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026. Dredging at the Douala port is scheduled to start in late Q1 2026. Additionally, the company is in talks to increase its stake in Camrail from 9 per cent to around 35 per cent, enhancing logistics from the mine to the port and mitigating supply-chain risks. Know more.

Brazilian Rare Earths at its Amargosa bauxite project showed progress, backed by a study revealing a low-capital, 5 million-tonne-per-year direct-ship export operation, along with a JORC-compliant resource of 568 million tonnes, which includes 98 million tonnes of direct-ship ore. The project is expected to generate an average annual EBITDA of around USD 102 million and free cash flow of approximately USD 84 million over a 17-year mine life. With an after-tax valuation close to USD 630 million and a capital payback period of just over a year, it stands out in the lowest-cost quartile of the global seaborne bauxite cost curve. 

Thaco Group is expanding its business registration to include the mining and processing of bauxite and other non-ferrous metal ores. This move encompasses related activities like quarrying, constructing mining facilities and wholesale trading of metals and ores, marking a shift towards upstream resources and metal production. The firm will also promote downstream metal forming processes. Concurrently, the firm is broadening its horizons into rail transport manufacturing and various other sectors. For this expansion, the company invested approximately USD 1.54 billion from USD 1.16 billion through a 3:1 stock distribution.

By tapping into a domestic source of high-grade alumina from alternative feedstock, CEM’s Thor alumina project aims to produce smelter-grade alumina in the domestic realm to use innovative processing technology. This positions Canada to boost its upstream security in the aluminium sector and reduce vulnerability to global supply chain hiccups. With plans to generate output that can support local smelters and boost value-added processing, this project is part of a larger effort to create a more self-sufficient North American alumina supply chain.

Vietnam’s Lam Dong province agreed to the expansion of two significant alumina projects, with a total investment of USD 2.3 billion. The upgrades, supported by the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin), will introduce new production lines at the Nhân Cơ and Lam Dong bauxite-aluminium complexes. Each facility is set to boost alumina capacity by approximately 1.2 million tonnes per year, with construction slated to continue through 2025-2030 and operations anticipated to begin by 2030, all under long-term project lifespans of about 30 years. 

Vedanta Aluminium acquired 1,447 acres of land in Odisha for its ambitious plan to build a 3 million-tonnes-per-annum aluminium smelter. This marks a significant milestone in boosting its downstream capacity and solidifying its foothold in India’s primary aluminium market. The project will be rolled out in phases, along with the necessary infrastructure and raw-material connections, all in line with the company’s larger vision to ramp up domestic production, streamline operations and meet the rising demand in sectors like power, transport and construction.

BHEL has landed a contract of INR 12 billion for boiler-turbine-generator (BTG) systems from Hindalco Industries. This deal is for the Aditya Aluminium facility located in Lapanga, Odisha, which encompasses everything from design and engineering to manufacturing, supply, erection, commissioning and performance testing for a 2×150 MW captive power plant, not including civil works. This order not only boosts BHEL’s industrial order book but also solidifies its position in the large-scale power infrastructure sector for metal projects. The commissioning timelines are set at about 35 months for Unit 1 and 37 months for Unit 2, starting from the contract's effective date.

LME price movement

LME aluminium prices reflected an up and down movement throughout, with cash offer values bouncing around between about USD 3,014 per tonne and USD 3,325.5 per tonne. It has been observed that some rallies follow the dips that correct themselves. After hitting a high of over USD 3,300 per tonne early on, the offers dropped down to the USD 3,042 to USD 3,110 per tonne range before hitting a low of USD 3,014. However, it gradually climbed back up, surpassing USD 3,100 per tonne and even reaching past USD 3,117 per tonne in the following sessions. Inventory movements have been a mixed bag, generally trending lower overall, though there have been some modest increases here and there. This suggests a tightening supply in response to changing demand signals. The interplay between price and inventory shows a market is quick to react to short-term supply cues, alumina trends and trading momentum, with aluminium holding a generally strong yet highly responsive price range in the global LME market. Checkout the latest LME aluminium price here.