AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Trump’s aluminium tax vs US beverage sector: Corona beer maker, Constellation Brands, lashes out
Constellation Brands, the beverage behemoth behind Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico, has publicly held Donald Trump’s reinstated aluminium tariffs responsible for its underwhelming Q1 2025 financial performance. And in doing so, it has flung a spotlight on a long-simmering trade policy issue with serious implications for the global aluminium packaging industry. For the first time in years, aluminium has moved from the quiet corners of the commodities trade into the earnings calls of Fortune 500 giants. Image for representational purposes only The company’s executive team revealed that aluminium tariffs will cost them an estimated USD 20 million in earnings this fiscal year alone, shaving 20 basis points off profit margins. The USD 20 million aluminium shock Constellation’s Q1 earnings missed...
India-UAE advance aluminium and steel bilateral trade pact – CEPA at the core
At a time when global bilateral trade relations face mounting uncertainty, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are moving into a new alliance centered on premium aluminium and steel. According to a report on July 2, Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and UAE Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri met as part of a high-level engagement to advance India-UAE cooperation under the CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) framework. The meeting was focused on joint development of high-grade aluminium and steel, which are vital for India’s growing automobile and strategic sectors. “We see clear synergy in jointly producing and trading high-quality steel and aluminium for use in sectors such as automobiles, mobility, and high-end manufacturing,” Shri Kumaraswamy said while...
US and Europe secure rare earth deal with China, pushing India to prioritise domestic production expansion
China’s move to restart rare earth exports to the US has eased pressure on American industries after nearly two months of restrictions. While some European firms have also secured limited export licenses to avoid production disruptions, India despite being a major importer of Chinese rare earths has not been granted similar relief. Image Source: ip-quarterly/Thorsten Kirchhoff China’s export ban, imposed on April 4, 2025, as a response to US tariffs, disrupted global access to critical rare earth materials such as scandium. Though used in small amounts, scandium is vital for producing high-performance aluminium-scandium alloys, which play a key role in electric vehicles, electronics, and defence industries. China’s Ministry of Commerce said, “China will approve the export application of...
Maharashtra aims for 30% EV by 2030! Confidence boosted as India ramps up production and trade
The Maharashtra government has unveiled an ambitious plan to make electric vehicles (EVs) account for 30 per cent of all vehicle registrations in the state by 2030. The announcement was made by Maharashtra Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik, who emphasised the need for sustainable mobility solutions amid growing urban congestion and rising fuel costs. The state’s vision has been formalised in the Maharashtra Electric Vehicle Policy 2025, which introduces a series of financial and structural incentives to accelerate EV adoption across sectors. Image for referential purposes only To encourage early adoption, the policy offers a range of benefits, including road tax and registration fee exemptions, interest-free loans, and direct purchase subsidies. In fact, the country’s first 45-horsepower...
EU's China-focused anti-dumping measures to expire soon: Will it extend past 2026?
As of July 1, 2025, the European Commission has fired the starting gun on what could be one of the most consequential trade decisions for the European aluminium industry in recent years. The Commission has issued an official notice of impending expiry for the anti-dumping duties currently levied on aluminium extrusions imported from the People’s Republic of China. In turn, the retraction can conceivably trigger a sharp recalibration of regional manufacturing strategies and market dynamics. Image for representational purposes only Unless a formal review request is submitted by EU producers before the end of 2025, the anti-dumping measures will lapse at midnight on March 31, 2026, as stipulated in Regulation (EU) 2016/1036 and documented in Notice C/2025/3573, published in the Official...
World primary aluminium production grows in May, with China, Africa, and North America touching 5-month high
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the world’s primary aluminium production in May 2025 trended up over a month, mirroring the pattern observed in the same period last year—but with a sharper pace of growth. While in May 2024, the world’s output had grown by 2.22 per cent month-on-month, this year, it increased by 3.3 per cent. From 6.044 million tonnes in April 2025, global output rose to 6.245 million tonnes in May, while the same period in 2024 had seen a climb from 5.913 million tonnes to 6.151 million tonnes. Thus, on a year-on-year calculation, the production volume in May 2025 was 1.53 per cent higher than in the same period of the earlier year. Nations with a 5-month high output – China leads, but how long? The production increased worldwide, but in some...
China’s aluminium push in Indonesia faces naval land objections
The Indonesian Navy has expressed strong objections to the planned USD 4.9 billion alumina refinery on Singkep Island in Indonesia’s Riau Islands province. Image for referential purposes only The project is being developed by China’s Tianshan Aluminium through its local subsidiary, Tianshan Alumina Indonesia, and has been granted National Strategic Project (PSN) status under the government’s mineral downstreaming agenda. The navy’s concerns stem from the project’s proposed location, which overlaps with a 400-hectare military training zone that has long supported operational readiness. The area has hosted major defence exercises, including the US-led Super Garuda Shield and joint amphibious drills with Australian forces. Navy spokesperson First Admiral Tunggul stated that the site remains...
Guinea's bauxite Q1’25 exports up 39% amid licence cancellations. China leads in demand!
Guinea's bauxite exports witnessed a 39 per cent surge in Q1 2025, valued at 48.6 million tonnes, despite ongoing setbacks concerning the cancellation of the licenses of major operators. The majority of Guinea's bauxite in Q1 2025 was exported to China, where aluminium production further recovered, already reaching 18.59 million tonnes in the first five months of 2025. The current bauxite industry of Guinea According to the SMM report, Guinea's bauxite sector has received significant attention in recent years, with production reaching almost 137 million tonnes annually, alongside mining and infrastructure projects. Substantial contributions to this effort were made by Kebo Energy SA, GAC, EGA, Arrow Minerals, and Trans-Guinean Railways. Shortly, the Guinea military-led government began to...
“We are optimising portfolio and cutting costs in response to prolonged downstream market weakness,” Anders Vindegg, Norsk Hydro
Over the past few months, a series of announcements from Norsk Hydro may have given the impression of a brand in retreat. Hiring freezes, production curbs, and plant closures painted a picture of contraction. Yet, at the same time, the company was rolling out plans for fresh investments and capacity expansions. If the intent was restraint, why pursue growth? And what, ultimately, is Hydro’s long game? To get a clearer understanding, we conversed with Anders Vindegg, Head of Media Relations at Norsk Hydro. With patience and clarity, he addressed our questions in detail. Here’s what we have learned: AL Circle: Over the past six months, Norsk Hydro has implemented a temporary hiring freeze, announced plant closures, and introduced curbs in production. Could you walk us through the rationale...
Africa’s hidden geodata loses billions of mining investment for the continent
In a continent where 40 per cent of the world’s natural resources lie beneath the surface, only 30 per cent have been thoroughly explored. But the challenge isn’t just geology. It is in its governance. More specifically, it’s the invisible curtain shrouding Africa’s geological survey data that may be deterring billions in potential investment. Image for referential purposes only (Source: https://www.bruker.com/) At the recent London Indaba, Mark Cutifani, Chairperson of Vale Base Metals and a mining heavyweight formerly at Anglo American, struck a chord during his opening keynote, as he shared, “Malawi is the first, and I believe Nigeria is the second.” He wasn’t talking about mineral production, infrastructure milestones, or new critical mineral discoveries. He was referring to a...
India’s exports hit $824.9 billion in FY25, but aluminium drops 10.79%
Despite India’s exports reaching a record USD 824.9 billion in FY 2024–25, aluminium exports declined sharply by 10.79 per cent, revealing sector-specific challenges amid an otherwise strong trade performance. Image for representational purposes only According to the Ministry of Commerce, total exports grew 6.01 per cent year-on-year, rising from USD 778.1 billion in FY 2023–24, driven primarily by robust growth in services and non-petroleum merchandise exports. The overall surge in India’s exports was supported by a 13.6 per cent rise in services exports, which reached a record USD 387.5 billion, and a 6 per cent increase in non-petroleum merchandise exports, which hit an all-time high of USD 374.1 billion. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman acknowledged the resilience of Indian...
US beverage can makers shift to recycled aluminium to counter tariffs and stabilise supply chains
The US beverage can industry aims to offset its manufacturing cost inflation by using recycled aluminium, which is exempt from the 50 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel. By using recycled aluminium, the entire industry would shield nearly 70 billion cans, an industry valued at USD 36.95 billion in 2024, from potential financial threats and loss. Recently, the Trump administration has applied a 50 per cent tariff on imports of consumer packaged goods made from aluminium and steel, creating a robust tension among manufacturers. However, this created a nudge towards using recycled aluminium for beverage can packaging. US beverage can production According to the IMARC report, the aluminium beverage can production in the US in 2024 was 155.8 Billion Units and is expected to reach 209.7...
Benson’s aluminium recycling debate: A case for awareness over alarm
A proposed aluminium recycling plant in Benson, USA, has stirred deep concerns among local residents, who fear the facility might lead to environmental harm, noise pollution, and water overuse — if not immediately, then in the long run. While the anxieties are understandable, especially given the plant’s location near residential areas, experts suggest these concerns might be rooted more in misinformation than in facts. Image source: IndiaMART The plant, led by Aluminum Dynamics, aims to recycle used beverage cans, which is symbolically an initiative to benefit the environment.“Aluminium is 100 percent recyclable. It’s infinitely recyclable, and we want to take advantage of that and keep these cans out of our landfills,” said Glenn Pushis, President of Aluminum Dynamics, in a statement...
Japan’s aluminium premium for Q3 Drops to $108/t as weak demand and high stocks tip balance
Some Japanese aluminium buyers have settled third-quarter premiums at USD 108 per tonne, down sharply from USD 182 per tonne in the second quarter, in a deal that reflects muted domestic demand, rising port inventories, and broader market oversupply, according to sources directly involved in the negotiations. Image for referential purposes only The 41 per cent quarter-on-quarter decline is the second consecutive drop and the lowest quarterly premium since early 2024, underscoring Japan’s ongoing demand uncertainty across major end-use segments like transportation, construction, and packaging. Buyers gain upper hand as spot deals undercut producers’ offers Negotiations, which concluded last week, saw initial producer offers range between USD122 and USD 145 per tonne. However, Japanese...
Conflicted or smart diplomat? Why does India, among others, ask for export tax reprieve and encourage import tariff imposition?
Countries like India, among others, ask for a reprieve when exporting but impose tariffs on imports to safeguard their domestic industries. Could such practices complicate international trade dynamics or be perceived as ‘conflicted’ by global partners? A lot of questions cloud the mind when delving into such geopolitical and trading diplomacy. In today’s editorial, we break down, stance by stance, what has been happening and how these acts have impacted country after country in overall development for decades. Image Source: https://okcredit.in/ India’s economic diplomacy , a part of the foreign policy framework, has been marked by securing trade agreements, attracting foreign investments and strengthening bilateral and multilateral ties with key global players. And tariffs/taxes have...
Behind the LME aluminium shortfall is Russia-China story with no easy fix
There was a time when LME aluminium inventory (opening stock) was at 1.47 million tonnes. Only four years ago in July 2021, Live Warrants were at 8,97,275 tonnes and Cancelled Warrants at 5,68,500 tonnes. Fast-forward four years, LME aluminium opening stock came in at 340,975 tonnes, marking a sharp fall of more than half. While stock loss is one concern, the other is the slim chance of stock build-up in the near future, due to which the LME aluminium benchmark price would remain on the upward trend. Already, by June 23, 2025, the LME aluminium 3-month official settlement price reached USD 2,584.50 per tonne, up by 6 per cent M-o-M from USD 2,448 per tonne, driven by decreased LME aluminium opening stock from 384,575 tonnes to 340,975 tonnes. Of the total 340,975 tonnes of opening stocks,...
Iran & Israel’s conflict is not only hurting their own but hurting other economies, too! India included...
India’s commerce ministry will convene a meeting on June 27 with key stakeholders, including shipping lines, exporters, container firms, and other departments, to assess the impact of the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict on India’s overseas trade. According to an official source, the objective is to evaluate disruptions and address emerging concerns tied to the region’s geopolitical instability. Image for referential purposes only (Source: Google Map) The escalating conflict has already triggered civilian casualties, economic damage, and strained international relations. For India, the implications are not just diplomatic but directly commercial, particularly given the importance of regional trade routes. The Strait of Hormuz: India’s trade lifeline The Strait of Hormuz, flanking Iran and...
Two cons form a pro: Russia & China’s $612.1M aluminium trade is a shout-out for a win-win tale
Over the past few years, Russia has ramped up its aluminium exports to China and other Asian economies. According to the latest trade data by the Chinese Statistical Service, China imported USD 612.1 million worth of Russian aluminium in April 2025 alone, which accounts for close to double the figure recorded in April 2024. This surge has pushed Russia’s share into Chinese aluminium imports to 39.5 per cent, up significantly from 22.7 per cent a year earlier. Between January and April 2025, China purchased a total of USD 2.05 billion worth of aluminium from Russia, marking a 1.5× increase compared to the same period in 2024. Image for representational purposes only This spike is not just in monetary terms but also in physical volumes. In April 2025, China’s imports of primary aluminium...
