AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Indian aluminium rises while Russian share falls in LME warehouses – what’s driving the shift in June 2025?
Primary aluminium inventories registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to rise in June, reaching 338,000 tonnes, up from 321,850 tonnes in May and 250,875 tonnes in April. This steady increase in stock levels was largely driven by a significant surge in Indian-origin aluminium entering LME warehouses. Image for representational purpose Indian aluminium inventories climbed sharply from 25,050 tonnes in April to 97,950 tonnes in May, and further to 114,150 tonnes in June. This rise boosted India’s share of total LME primary aluminium stocks to 34 per cent in June, up from 30 per cent in May and just 10 per cent in April, underscoring the growing global presence of Indian metal. In contrast, Russian-origin aluminium inventories at the LME have remained fairly stable in...
“We have diversified into biomass pellets and green fuel to make our aluminium recycling process more sustainable. Our goal is to go completely green by the end of this year.” – Sudarshan Bagaria, CEO, Bagaria Aluminium Alloys Pvt. Ltd.
AL Circle: Could you please brief us about your journey in producing 1,100 tonnes of secondary aluminium per month at your facility? Sudarshan Bagaria: We started this journey in 2016, when we installed an aluminium plant and it started functioning in June 2017. At that time, we had never imagined that we would reach 1,100 tonnes per month. Starting from a small facility with only one furnace, we produced 100 tonnes in our first month. And thereafter, the journey continued because the automotive sector as well as the electrical sector were expanding. It reaches eight to 10 per cent minimum every year. Some companies are going by 20 per cent, 25 per cent also. This helped us create avenues with only one thing in mind: our quality. We achieved 1100 tonnes solely due to our quality, which we...
5-year countdown: How close is the aluminium industry to meeting the 2030 low-carbon goal?
A gentle but urgent reminder: the world has just five years left to meet the 2030 low-carbon target – a milestone set by high energy-intensive industries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent from 2010 levels of approximately 43,420.56 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, aiming to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This ambitious target is not an individual checkpoint but a vital stop on the journey to net zero-emissions by 2050. With the clock ticking, it is essential to track where exactly do the world’s carbon-heavy industries stand today? Are we on pace—or falling further behind? A report by the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP), which is a climate alliance dedicated to accelerating decarbonisation of the world’s heaviest-emitting industries,...
Part 2 - “The X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft is specifically designed to address the most significant environmental noise pollution challenge associated with supersonic flight: the sonic boom,” Kalea Texeira, National Training Program Manager at Federal Aviation Administration
Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Kalea Texeira, National Training Program Manager at the Federal Aviation Administration. In this segment, Kalea dives deeper into NASA’s groundbreaking X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft, offering an inside look at how its innovative design and material choices help minimize the disruptive sonic booms that plagued earlier supersonic jets like the Concorde and F-18. She also underscores the essential role of aluminium in modern aircraft construction highlighting how this lightweight, high-performance material remains key to pushing the boundaries of aerospace innovation. AL Circle: What critical insights were gained from the integration tests using the real aircraft, and how did they shape further refinements? Kalea Texeira : The...
From 274 thousand tonnes to fivefold aluminium production – Know how Indonesia is planning its major production boom
Chinese tycoons are accelerating the growth of Indonesia’s aluminium industry with multibillion-dollar investments that echo the country’s earlier nickel boom and have the potential to disrupt the global aluminium market. Facing tightening production limits at home, giants like billionaire Xiang Guangda’s Tsingshan Holding Group, China Hongqiao Group, and Song Jianbo’s Shandong Nanshan Aluminium are shifting their focus to Southeast Asia’s largest economy, pouring capital into new smelters and refineries. Indonesia’s aluminium industry is on the cusp of dramatic growth, fuelled by both domestic policy shifts and a wave of foreign investment. According to Goldman Sachs, Indonesia’s aluminium output could increase fivefold by the end of the decade. Currently, as reported by Petromindo.com,...
Euric pushes back on EU aluminium scrap export ban while others support it - what drives this divide?
The Brussels-based European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) has voiced strong opposition to a proposed ban on recycled aluminium exports from the EU. On the flip side, several other European industry groups are pushing for tighter controls, citing growing concerns over aluminium scrap leakage. What's fueling this split in opinion?. The recycling organisation, amidst the rising demand for safeguard measures urged by the majority of the EU scrap exporters, have enunciated that the low aluminium scrap export volume indicates a restriction to the trade, providing no solution for the trade and energy concerns of the aluminium producers in the EU. Owing to the previous messages of the European aluminium producers and organisations, the association states that it is deceiving, as it...
Aluminium, part of sector 232, not under reciprocal tariff. Then, what is? And, who pays for it?
“Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” Donald Trump once declared. That wasn’t a throwaway line, but what seemed to be a transnational battle cry. Six months into his second term, the former and now current US President has turned the word into a policy instrument of unparalleled weight. And as of this week, the tariffs keep coming, swelling in scale, reach, and global consequence. Image for representational purposes only On July 9, Trump expanded his tariff net further , issuing formal notifications to seven new countries — Algeria (30 per cent), Iraq (30 per cent), Libya (30 per cent), the Philippines (20 per cent), Brunei (25 per cent), Moldova (25 per cent), and Sri Lanka (30 per cent) — warning that reciprocal duties on all goods from these nations will take effect...
Fuelling India’s mineral growth story including bauxite with OMC’s ambitious production target
In April 2025, India’s bauxite production increased by 13.9 per cent year-on-year, rising from 1.87 million tonnes to 2.13 million tonnes. Over the course of FY2024-25, the country produced a total of 24.7 million tonnes of bauxite, solidifying its position as the world’s fifth-largest producer, following Guinea, Australia, China, and Brazil. This growth reflects the country’s expanding role in the global bauxite supply chain and the increasing demand for aluminium and related industries. A significant contributor to this national growth is the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC), which has been steadily scaling up its bauxite output to meet both domestic and industrial needs. In FY2024-25, OMC successfully achieved a bauxite production milestone of 3 million tonnes. Building on this...
Part 1 - “Aluminum plays a pivotal role in both the structural integrity and aerodynamic efficiency of NASA’s X-59 QueSST aircraft,” Kalea Texeira, National Training Program Manager at Federal Aviation Administration
In conversation with Kalea Texeira, who explained about NASA’s X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft. In this interview she highlighted how it used materials and shaped its airframe to minimise sonic booms something earlier aircraft like the Concorde and F-18 never addressed. She also pointed out the importance of aluminium for aircraft construction. To know more of her insights, read the full interview below: Al Circle: What distinguishes the X-59's airframe and materials from earlier supersonic aircraft like Concorde or the F-18? Kalea Texeira: The X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology (QueSST) aircraft represents a significant leap in supersonic aircraft design, particularly in its approach to airframe and material selection, distinguishing it markedly from predecessors like the...
20% hike in the United States Q1 aluminium imports - UAE’s role signals trade rethink
A quarterly and annual jump in the United States aluminium imports during the first quarter of 2025 comes as no surprise – and here’s why. President Trump’s February 10 proclamation announcing steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, effective March 12, sparked a wave of anticipatory buying. US importers rushed to stockpile metal in the weeks ahead of the tariff deadline, setting off a temporary import boom. According to data from the US Geological Survey, aluminium imports surged to 1.6 million tonnes in Q1 2025, marking a 17.65 per cent jump year-on-year and a 20 per cent rise from the previous quarter. March alone saw a 35 per cent month-over-month spike, from 459,000 tonnes to 619,000 tonnes. Of course, Canada, America’s long-standing aluminium supplier, naturally played a...
Sohar Aluminium advances sustainability with focus on efficiency and decarbonisation
Sohar Aluminium is strengthening its sustainability efforts by prioritising energy efficiency, cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and advancing its long-term commitment to environmental stewardship. Image for representational purpose The company’s 2024 sustainability report details a series of targeted initiatives designed to align operations with Oman Vision 2040 and international climate commitments, while reinforcing its position as a leader in responsible aluminium production. Sohar Aluminium Chief Executive Officer Eng. Said Mohammed Al Masoudi said, “Building on our ESG strategy and roadmap, 2024 marked a year of tangible progress in advancing sustainability across our operations. We strengthened our focus on resource efficiency, circularity, and low-carbon initiatives while...
Still shackled by tariffs: Why the UK missed the steel and aluminium deal deadline with the US
In a blow to Britain’s steel and aluminium exporters, the UK has officially missed the July 9 deadline to strike a deal with the United States over the continuation of punitive tariffs first imposed by the Trump administration in 2018. The breakdown in talks risks prolonging a trade dispute that many hoped would be resolved by now, leaving British metal producers disadvantaged and frustrated. Image for referential purposes only At the heart of the issue is a failure to agree on mutually acceptable terms for a deal akin to the ones the US struck with the EU, Japan, and other allies. While those nations secured tariff rate quotas (TRQs) that partially restored access to the American market, the UK remains stuck with Section 232 tariffs — 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium....
A surprising 209% share gain forecasted for Metro Mining by FY’26
Metro Mining Ltd (ASX: MMI), an Australian bauxite producer, is trading at AUD 0.056 per share (as of May 26, 2025). With a substantial discount against the consensus analyst target of AUD 0.17, the pricing hints towards a potential upside of 209 per cent , according to AInvest data. Shaw & Partners, which has been covering the company since 2023, maintains a ‘Moderate Buy’ recommendation, with its latest reaffirmation in February 2025. Image for representational purposes only (source: https://metromining.com.au/) Operational growth and output scale Metro’s production at its flagship Bauxite Hills mine in Queensland has expanded from approximately 3.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2020 to 6 Mtpa in 2024. The company has outlined its goal of reaching a run-rate between 6.5 and 7 Mtpa...
Inside the US-India trade talks: any breakthrough on aluminium and steel tariffs?
Note: This is an AI-generated image for respresentational purpose All eyes are now fixed on the trade dialogue between India and the United States that kicked off on June 26. The stakes are high—not for a full-fledged trade deal, but for an interim agreement that could shift the course of escalating tariff tensions. The clock is ticking, as July 9 marks the end of the 90-day suspension period of Donald Trump’s retaliatory 26 per cent aluminium tariffs announced on April 2. Over the past three months, both nations have engaged in a flurry of bilateral exchanges to resolve the tariff deadlock, particularly surrounding aluminium and steel. India even took its grievances to the World Trade Organization, challenging Washington's move as blatant protectionism disguised as trade policy. Yet, all...
India’s aluminium revolution: A sixfold surge by 2047
At the International Conference on Sustainable and Responsible Mining, Union Minister G. Kishan Reddy unveiled the Aluminium Vision Document, signaling a strategic shift in how India views and manages one of its most vital industrial resources. Framed within the broader Viksit Bharat 2047 vision, the roadmap lays out an ambitious plan to increase aluminium production nearly sixfold by the country’s 100th year of independence. Despite being the world’s second-largest aluminium producer, India currently contributes only 6 per cent to the global output, underscoring a significant gap between capacity and potential. The new vision aims to bridge this gap not just by scaling production but by transforming aluminium into a central pillar of India’s sustainable development model. Building...
Bauxite map 2024: Country-wise reserves and production metrics unveiled
As the global aluminium market braces for a new phase of industrial transition, driven by decarbonisation, electric mobility, and infrastructure growth, the mineral fuelling this surge is quietly building geopolitical weight. Bauxite, the primary ore for aluminium, is showing a reshaped reserve landscape in 2024, with fresh data from AL Circle's research highlighting strategic concentrations that could redefine global supply chains. As of 2024, five countries dominate the global bauxite landscape by reserve volume: Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia. Together, they account for over 66 per cent of the world’s total reserves. However, when juxtaposed with actual production output, the picture becomes more complex. Global snapshot: 29 billion tonnes and counting As of 2024,...
US aluminium tariff 2025: Latest updates, trade figures and partner responses as July 9 approaches
As the July 9 deadline approaches, the US trade partner countries are looking to initiate deals with the Trump administration for tariffs to snap back to higher levels. Moreover, more than 100 partners are expected to see a "reciprocal" rate of 10 per cent in the coming week, where the possibility of emerging flurry deals materialises before the deadline hits. Image source: customssuport.com Stand of the Chinese trade partners Currently, the US has eased the export restriction on China for conducting business with chip design software and ethane, indicating a calming trade tension between the two countries. This ease had come into being after signing an agreement in May, concluding a framework directing larger trade deals. US-based software firms like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS)...
“We are extremely concerned by the sharp rise in scrap outflows driven by the fact that aluminium scrap is not subject to the same tariffs as other aluminium products, which are now subject to 50 per cent,” Kelly Roegies, Senior Communications Manager of the European Association
The AL Circle Team recently interviewed Kelly Roegies, Senior Communications Manager of the European Association, wherein she provided an overview of the current landscape of the European aluminium industry, highlighting the effects of US tariffs. In addition, she discussed the potential aluminium scrap crisis due to the US tariff exemptions on scrap imports, while also offering solutions to curb excessive outflow from the continent. According to her, the growing fear of losing scrap from Europe is justified. To know more of her insights and opinion, read the full interview below: AL Circle: Could you provide an overview of the current state of the European aluminium industry, particularly with regard to production levels, market demand, and overall consumption? Additionally, how have the...
