“We are extremely concerned by the sharp rise in scrap outflows driven by the fact that aluminium scrap is not subject to the same tariffs as other aluminium products, which are now subject to 50 per cent,” Kelly Roegies, Senior Communications Manager of the European Association
The AL Circle Team recently interviewed Kelly Roegies, Senior Communications Manager of the European Association, wherein she provided an overview of the current landscape of the European aluminium industry, highlighting the effects of US tariffs. In addition, she discussed the potential aluminium scrap crisis due to the US tariff exemptions on scrap imports, while also offering solutions to curb excessive outflow from the continent. According to her, the growing fear of losing scrap from Europe is justified.
To know more of her insights and opinion, read the full interview below:
AL Circle: Could you provide an overview of the current state of the European aluminium industry, particularly with regard to production levels, market demand, and overall consumption? Additionally, how have the recent US tariffs on aluminium imports impacted European trade flows and industry revenues?
Kelly Roegies: Europe has lost over 50 per cent of its primary aluminium production since 2021 due to high energy prices, which remain up to five times higher than in competing regions, and a global unlevel playing field. Today, primary aluminium production in Europe is steadily recovering from the aftermath of the 2022 energy crisis. Demand for semi-fabricated products is also rebounding, although at varying speeds depending on the end-use sector. For instance, some markets, such as packaging, are expecting to perform better, while automotive remains weak.
In the meantime, the recent US tariffs and the current geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East) create additional uncertainties affecting both the supply and demand of aluminium.
For instance, when it comes to the US tariffs, of course, we can expect European aluminium exports to be impacted, but the bigger concern is scrap leakage. By exempting aluminium scrap from its 50 per cent tariff, the US has effectively created a pull factor, making it more attractive to ship valuable European scrap across the Atlantic.
We are also concerned about the risk of aluminium imports being redirected from other regions to the EU —a trend already observed for some products since the initial 25 per cent tariff was introduced — is likely to accelerate. With the tariff doubled to 50 per cent, more semi-fabricated products originally destined for the US may flood the European market, putting further pressure on prices and harming the competitiveness of domestic producers.
AL Circle: In your view, can the proposed EUR 21 billion retaliatory tariff package — along with the additional escalation list valued at EUR 95 billion targeting major US exports such as Boeing aircraft, vehicles, auto parts, bourbon whiskey, and other branded consumer goods — effectively compensate for the financial setbacks Europe has faced due to the steep US tariffs?
Kelly Roegies: European Aluminium does not take a direct position on retaliatory measures. However, we have expressed strong concern that the US Section 232 tariffs—now increased to 50 per cent—are completely disproportionate and unjustified. While we understand the need to respond to economic harm, our priority remains restoring fair-trade conditions and avoiding further disruption to global aluminium supply chains.
AL Circle: While the United States has excluded aluminium scrap imports from its tariff regime, there are growing concerns about potential excessive scrap leakage from Europe. Do you believe these concerns are justified?
Kelly Roegies: Absolutely! We are extremely concerned by the sharp rise in scrap outflows driven by the fact that aluminium scrap is not subject to the same tariffs as other aluminium products, which are now subject to 50 per cent. Even before the latest US tariff hike, Europe was already losing scrap at record rates to countries (e.g. in Asia) benefiting from unfair competitive advantage (e.g. lower labour, energy, or environmental standards and non-market investments).
The current tariff gap has further boosted US demand for scrap and has widened a price arbitrage that incentivises direct scrap exports to the US and additional EU scrap outflows to Asia, as Asian producers redirect sourcing away from the now less attractive US market.
Without swift EU action to restrict scrap exports, the US tariff increase risks triggering a full-blown scrap crisis — threatening the viability of Europe’s aluminium recycling and semi-fabrication industry.
Regarding the data, in Q1 2025 alone, exports to the US surged by 273 per cent compared to the same period last year. Alarmingly, two-thirds of the total scrap volume exported in all of 2024 was already shipped in the first three months of this year.
Moreover, total EU scrap exports rose by 10 per cent in Q1 2025, with exports to Asia growing even faster e.g. India +22 per cent, Thailand +28 per cent, China +54 per cent.
This trend undermines the EU’s circular economy goals and exacerbates critical material shortages for European recyclers.
AL Circle: Given the apprehensions expressed by European aluminium industry leaders, what measures do you believe would be most effective in curbing unwanted aluminium scrap outflows from the region?
Kelly Roegies: The urgency of the situation calls for immediate action: an export fee on aluminium scrap exports to the US to restore the initial free market conditions and to ensure that there will be no risk of circumvention, a horizontal export fee (erga omnes) on all aluminium scrap is needed. Such measures will address the continuously worsening situation and help level the playing field for European aluminium recyclers competing globally. Market forces will decide which scrap will leave or stay in Europe (EU/EFTA). This is not about protectionism but about correcting an unlevel playing field created by unfair trade policies in third countries. Restoring the balance in the aluminium scrap market will improve access to domestic scrap and help build a stronger, greener, and more self-sufficient industrial base.
AL Circle: Can you please share some updates on CBAM implementation and take us through the most vital trade rules the exporters need to follow?
Kelly Roegies: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is being phased in through a transitional period (October 2023–December 2025) during which importers must report embedded emissions quarterly but are not yet required to purchase CBAM certificates. From January 1, 2026, CBAM will be fully enforced: only authorised CBAM declarants may import covered goods, and they must annually declare verified emissions and purchase and surrender certificates equivalent to those emissions, aligning the carbon costs of imports with those of EU producers.
A newly agreed de minimis threshold exempts importers of less than 50 tonnes per year, relieving most small businesses from compliance while still covering nearly all embedded emissions. Exporters to the EU must be prepared to provide accurate, verifiable emissions data to their EU partners, as failure to comply can result in penalties or loss of market access, and further scope extensions and procedural refinements are expected as the mechanism evolves.
However, as highlighted by a study by Ramboll Management Consulting, commissioned by European Aluminium, CBAM, as currently designed, does not work for aluminium. For example, it creates a clear incentive to over-declare scrap content in products to avoid paying the fee at the border. Without urgent adjustments, it will punish European producers for being cleaner while rewarding importers with less transparency and fewer obligations. We strongly urge the European Commission to immediately pause the implementation of CBAM for aluminium — including the phase-out of free EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances — until key design flaws are fixed and the impact on our industry's competitiveness is properly assessed.
AL Circle: Do you think the combination of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the US exemption of aluminium scrap from tariffs can severely impact the availability of recycled aluminium in the European domestic market?
Kelly Roegies: Yes, this combination creates a serious risk for Europe’s scrap availability and circular economy goals. On the one hand, the US tariffs are drawing high volumes of European scrap to the US market and Asian countries. On the other hand, CBAM — as currently designed — assigns a zero-emission value to scrap, without a reliable system to verify the actual scrap content in imported products. This opens a loophole: importers can over-declare scrap to reduce or avoid CBAM costs, while European producers must still pay carbon costs across their full value chain. The result is a strong financial incentive to misreport scrap content and reroute high-scrap-content products to the EU. That not only distorts trade flows but also puts added pressure on Europe's scrap supply.
AL Circle: What potential impacts do you foresee from the Free Trade Agreement signed with India? In your opinion, could it lead to a significant boost in aluminium exports to the United Kingdom?
Kelly Roegies: The India–UK Free Trade Agreement removes tariffs on the vast majority of aluminium and other products. Ninety-nine per cent of Indian exports are now tariff-free to the UK, with 90 per cent of UK exports similarly covered. This means Indian producers will likely find easier access to the UK market. However, the actual impact will depend on the specific tariff schedules and rules of origin for aluminium products once the legal text is finalised and the agreement comes into force.
One thing is certain: the aluminium industry in India is growing rapidly across the upstream (e.g. alumina, primary), downstream (e.g. extrusions), and recycling segments. For example, one of your recent articles mentioned a new Indian project for a 3 million-tonne primary aluminium smelter—three times the current production of the entire European Union.
