Metro Mining Ltd (ASX: MMI), an Australian bauxite producer, is trading at AUD 0.056 per share (as of May 26, 2025). With a substantial discount against the consensus analyst target of AUD 0.17, the pricing hints towards a potential upside of 209 per cent, according to AInvest data. Shaw & Partners, which has been covering the company since 2023, maintains a ‘Moderate Buy’ recommendation, with its latest reaffirmation in February 2025.
Image for representational purposes only (source: https://metromining.com.au/)
Operational growth and output scale
Metro’s production at its flagship Bauxite Hills mine in Queensland has expanded from approximately 3.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2020 to 6 Mtpa in 2024. The company has outlined its goal of reaching a run-rate between 6.5 and 7 Mtpa by late 2025, subject to logistics and weather stability.
Analysts expect a sharp earnings rebound for Metro Mining following its AUD 22 million net loss in FY2024. The company is projected to return to profitability in FY2025 with an estimated net profit of AUD 103 million, boosted by a 26 per cent year-on-year revenue increase. This turnaround is driven by operational and market tailwinds, including record bauxite shipments of 589,000 wet metric tonnes in June 2025 (a 16 per cent rise compared to the previous year) and an average 20 per cent increase in realised bauxite prices during Q2 2025. These gains reflect stronger demand fundamentals, higher CIF pricing, and Metro’s expanded production capabilities.
This operational scaling is reflected in projected revenue growth. The company is expected to report AUD 484 million in revenue in FY2025, rising to AUD 536 million in FY2026 and AUD 537 million in FY2027, up from AUD 307 million in FY2024.
Improved EBITDA outlook
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