US aluminium tariff 2025: Latest updates, trade figures and partner responses as July 9 approaches

Currently, the US has eased the export restriction on China for conducting business with chip design software and ethane, indicating a calming trade tension between the two countries. This ease had come into being after signing an agreement in May, concluding a framework directing larger trade deals. US-based software firms like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) have also urged to continue to sell chip designing tools to respective Chinese consumers again, since the US lifted the export limitation of ethane to China a week ago. 

US-China trade summary 

As per the data of the United States Trade Representative, in 2024, a total of USD 582.4 billion worth of goods were traded between the US and China. US goods exports to China fell to USD 143.5 billion, showing a 2.9 per cent decline from 2023. On the other hand, the US goods imports from China rose to USD 438.9 billion, showing a 2.8 per cent rise from 2023. 

As of mid-2025, aluminium imports from China to the US remain subject to a 50 per cent tariff under Section 232, following an increase announced in June. While a recent US–China agreement temporarily reduced tariffs on a broader range of goods to 10 per cent, this relief does not apply to aluminium or related products. The higher duty on aluminium remains entirely in effect, continuing to impact sourcing and trade flows between the two nations.

According to the data of Trading Economics, the US has imported USD 3.07 billion worth of aluminium from China in 2024. In the previous year, the US imported aluminium from China, where the total worth stands at USD 2.74 billion, representing a surge by 10.74 per cent in 2024.  

Stand of the Vietnamese trade partners 

On Wednesday, Trump reached a trade deal conclusion with Vietnam, where the country's imports will face a 20 per cent tariff, which has been further lowered from 46 per cent as initiated back in April. Additionally, Vietnamese goods which are shipped from there but have their origin in a different country would levy a 40 per cent tariff. However, many US-based goods would not see a duty on the Vietnamese imports. 

US-Vietnam trade summary

US goods trade with Vietnam totalled an estimated USD 149.6 billion in 2024, as per the data of the United States Trade Representative. US goods exports to Vietnam in 2024 stood at USD 13.1 billion, showing an increase of 32.9 per cent (USD 3.2 billion) from 2023. US goods imports from Vietnam totalled USD 136.6 billion in 2024, showing an increase of 19.3 per cent (USD 22.1 billion) from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with Vietnam was USD 123.5 billion in 2024, an 18.1 per cent increase (USD 18.9 billion) over 2023.

According to the data of Trading Economics, the US has imported USD 505 million worth of aluminium from Vietnam in 2024. In the previous year, the US imported aluminium from China, where the total worth stands at USD 461 million, representing a decline by 8.71 per cent in 2024.  

Stand of the Japanese trade partners

Earlier this week, Trump stated that negotiations with Japan had deteriorated, warning that he would impose significantly higher tariffs of almost 30 per cent to 35 per cent. This proposed level notably exceeds the 24 per cent "Liberation Day" benchmark. 

US-Japanese trade summary

As per the data of the United States Trade Representative, the US goods trade with Japan totalled an estimated USD 227.9 billion in 2024. US goods exports to Japan in 2024 were USD 79.7 billion, up 5.4 per cent (USD 4.1 billion) from 2023. US goods imports from Japan totalled USD 148.2 billion in 2024, up 0.7 per cent (USD 971 million) from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with Japan was USD 68.5 billion in 2024, a 4.3 per cent decrease (USD 3.1 billion) compared to 2023.

As of July 2025, aluminium imports from Japan to the US are subject to a 50 per cent tariff under Section 232, following an increase from the earlier 25 per cent rate. Despite Japan's formal requests for exemption, the US has not granted any relief, and the tariff remains entirely in effect. Negotiations are ongoing, but no breakthrough has been reached yet.

Stand of the European Union trade partners

In a recent negotiation, the EU has shown their willingness to accept a 10 per cent universal tariff on many products directly exported to the US. However, in a recent situation, the EU is seeking tariff exemptions for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, commercial aircraft and alcohol as part of their trade deals. 

US-EU trade summary

According to the data of the United States Trade Representative, the US total goods trade with the EU was estimated at USD 975.9 billion in 2024. The US goods exports to the EU in 2024 stood at USD 370.2 billion, up 0.7 per cent (USD 2.6 billion) from 2023. The US goods imports from the EU totalled USD 605.8 billion in 2024, up 5.1 per cent (USD 29.4 billion) from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with the European Union was USD 235.6 billion in 2024, a 12.9 per cent increase (USD 26.9 billion) over 2023.

According to the data of Trading Economics, the US imported a total of USD 2.82 billion worth of aluminium and its products from the EU. In the previous year, the US imports stood at USD 2.68 billion, representing a surge of 4.96 per cent in 2024. 

Stand of the Canadian trade partners 

Canada has withdrawn its proposed digital services tax, which would have impacted major US technology firms. Following this move, the White House confirmed that trade negotiations between the two countries have resumed, after earlier threats from President Trump to halt discussions. Both sides are now targeting a mid-July timeline to finalise a potential agreement.

US-Canada trade summary

As per the data of the United States Trade Representative, the US total goods trade with Canada was estimated at USD 762.1 billion in 2024. The US goods exports to Canada in 2024 were USD 349.4 billion, down 1.4 per cent (USD 5.0 billion) from 2023. US goods imports from Canada totalled USD 412.7 billion in 2024, also down 1.4 per cent (USD 5.9 billion) from 2023. 

The US goods trade deficit with Canada was USD 63.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a 1.4 per cent decrease (USD 926.9 million) compared to 2023. Trade in services with Canada (exports and imports) totalled an estimated USD 140.3 billion in 2023. Services exports were USD 86.0 billion, while services imports were USD 54.3 billion. The US services trade surplus with Canada stood at USD 31.7 billion in 2023.

According to the data of Trading Economics, the US imports of aluminium and its products from Canada in 2024 stood at USD 11.5 billion. In the previous year, the US imported a total of aluminium and its products worth USD 11.2 billion, showing a surge of 2.67 per cent in 2024. 

Stand of the Indian trade partners

India has firmly drawn its red lines ahead of the US tariff deadline of July 9, making clear it won’t compromise on sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy, even as intense negotiations continue in Washington to avert steep retaliatory tariffs. While negotiating teams from both countries remain in close engagement, India is resisting the US demands for broader market access in farming and genetically modified crops, choosing to protect its domestic producers. The ball is now in the US court to decide whether Washington can craft a trade deal acceptable to India's core interests or proceed with imposing tariffs.

US-India trade summary

The total goods traded between the US and India reached an estimated USD 129.2 billion in 2024, as per the data of the United States Trade Representative. The US goods exports to India amounted to USD 41.8 billion, marking a 3.4 per cent increase (USD 1.4 billion) from 2023. Imports from India stood at USD 87.4 billion, up 4.5 per cent (USD 3.7 billion) over the previous year. Consequently, the US goods trade deficit with India widened to USD 45.7 billion in 2024, representing an increase of 5.4 per cent (USD 2.4 billion) compared to 2023.

According to the data of Trading Economics, the US imports of aluminium and its products from India in 2024 stood at USD 821 million. In the previous year, the US imported a total of aluminium and its products worth USD 907 million, showing a decline of 10.47 per cent in 2024. 

Take of other US trading partners 

Apart from China, Vietnam, Japan, Canada and the EU, countries like Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan and several African and Latin American nations are facing significant economic strain due to the new US tariffs, particularly the steep 50 per cent duty on aluminium. Mexico is projected to enter a deep recession, with exports expected to drop by 12 per cent, while South Korea and Taiwan are grappling with heightened trade uncertainty. 

African and Latin American economies risk weakened exports and rising input costs. Globally, the aluminium tariff is inflating manufacturing costs, disrupting supply chains, and contributing to broader inflationary pressures and a slowdown in investment across emerging markets.

As the July 9 deadline nears, the global trade deals are witnessing heightened activity, with key US trade partners striving to navigate shifting tariff frameworks under the Trump administration. From intensified aluminium duties to strategic tariff negotiations, countries like China, Vietnam, Japan, the EU and Canada are recalibrating trade relationships to protect national interests and sustain industrial competitiveness. With tariffs on aluminium playing a pivotal role, these developments are poised to reshape global supply chains and trade flows well into the second half of 2025.