Geopolitics
China aluminium rebounds as off-season demand defies expectations; tight supply to support August gains
Mysteel's price assessment showed that China's aluminium prices demonstrated a clear recovery trend entering July 2026. On one hand, the previous oversold conditions provided technical momentum for a rebound; on the other, fundamentals offered robust support. During the price correction phase, the destocking of aluminium ingots accelerated markedly, as downstream enterprises actively replenished inventories at lower levels. This concentrated release of demand effectively neutralised downward price pressures, jointly driving the stabilisation and rebound of aluminium prices throughout July. On the supply side, Mysteel's full-sample survey of Chinese primary aluminium producers indicates that China's primary aluminium production in July 2026 came in at 3,878,700 tonnes, representing a...
Middle East shipping disruptions have pushed ALUPCO to re-strategise its aluminium extrusion supply chain strategies
From a Saudi extrusion manufacturer established in 1975 to an integrated aluminium solutions provider serving more than 26 countries, ALUPCO’s growth mirrors the rapid transformation of the Middle East’s construction and infrastructure landscape. In this exclusive AL Circle interview, Abdul Aziz AlGhamdi, General Manager at ALUPCO discusses how the company is strengthening its position across domestic and export markets while responding to shifting customer expectations, complex architectural requirements and rising demand linked to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 developments. With more than 85,000 tonnes of annual extrusion capacity, manufacturing operations on both the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea coasts, and growing investments in green billet production, ALUPCO is navigating new opportunities...
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ALUMINIUM 2026
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
ALUMINIUM 2026
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MOREEurope holds 10% of global aluminium extrusion demand, supported by Germany’s Constellium, France’s Hydro Extrusions & Italy’s Metra
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H1’26 LME aluminium stocks dip 31.82%: Russian sanctions & Gulf crisis pack a double blow
AL Circle Analysis: Import rise meets demand growth on aluminium extrusion chessboard
News
China aluminium inventory pullback, multiple factors in play as aluminium price drifts higher
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2609 contract closed at RMB 23,835 per tonne, up RMB 70 from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.29 per cent. It opened at RMB 23,785.00 per tonne today and fluctuated in a range of RMB 23,740–23,905 per tonne. Prices were trading above the MA5 (23,740.00), MA10 (23,542.00), MA30 (23,191.33), and MA60 (23,741.00). The medium and long-term moving averages remained in a bearish alignment, continuing to exert downward pressure. The pattern of consolidating at lows and drifting higher persisted, with the higher range above forming key resistance. The MACD indicator showed the DIF (93.4473) above the DEA (-3.5285) and the MACD histogram at 193.9515. Bearish momentum continued to wane, while bullish recovery momentum remained strong. The...
Aluminium price rose, shipments sentiment rose, downstream procurement sentiment was weak
In early trading, the operating centre of the SHFE aluminium 2608 contract was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. Affected by weak end-use demand, overall market purchasing today was mainly for essential restocking. Due to the rise in aluminium prices, some traders showed increased willingness to sell, but overall purchase willingness was limited. Mainstream transaction prices were mainly at parity to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium August contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in east China was 3.16, up 0.08 from the previous session; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.00, unchanged. The recurring US-Iran conflicts disrupted the rise in SHFE aluminium prices during the night session. Today, traders and downstream processing...
IEA flags mounting energy security risks as Iran conflict threatens global oil flows
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that escalating tensions involving Iran are increasing risks to global energy security, with concerns centred on potential disruptions to key oil transit routes and critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East. According to the agency, the deteriorating geopolitical situation has heightened uncertainty in international oil markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two of the world's most strategically important maritime chokepoints for crude oil and refined petroleum shipments. Any sustained disruption to these corridors could significantly impede global energy trade. Despite the heightened risks, the oil market has so far demonstrated resilience, supported by alternative supply channels and...
Macro and fundamentals intertwined with bullish and bearish forces, short-term aluminium prices expected to mainly consolidate and adjust
US June CPI fell 0.4 per cent M-o-M, the first month-on-month contraction since 2020, prompting the market to lower its expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. However, Fed Chairman Warsh bluntly expressed "zero tolerance" for the persistent five-year high inflation, displaying a tough hawkish stance. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike was 53.5 per cent in September, rising to 61.8 per cent in October and further to 74 per cent in December. The pressure on the valuation of the nonferrous metals sector from rate hike expectations has never fully dissipated. Elsewhere, renewed conflict in the Middle East and the less-than-expected progress in US-Iran negotiations have intermittently roiled futures with geopolitical risk premiums. Fundamentals side: Supply side, this...
Arrow Minerals secures three-year bauxite exploration permit for Niagara project in Guinea
Arrow Minerals Limited has been granted a new three-year Industrial Exploration Permit for its Niagara Bauxite Project in Guinea following a government review of the company's historical work and operational capabilities. The permit, issued by Guinea's Ministry of Mines and Geology on July 15, 2026, covers 499.61 square kilometres and is identical in area and boundaries to the company's previous exploration licence. It was awarded to Arrow's wholly owned subsidiary, Mineralfields Bauxite SARLU. The company said the permit followed the Guinean government's review of its exploration activities, operational capacity and ability to advance the project in line with the country's Mining Code. Managing Director David Flanagan said the new licence covers the mineralised plateaux hosting the...
Downstream off-season demand is weak, while geopolitical conflicts support consolidation in aluminium prices
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2608 contract closed at RMB 23,255 per tonne, up RMB 90 or 0.39 per cent from the previous trading day's settlement price. It opened at RMB 23,190 per tonne and fluctuated in a range of RMB 23,180-23,285 per tonne. Prices ran above the MA5 (23,185.00) and MA10 (23,094.00) but below the MA30 (23,411.33) and MA60 (24,031.00). The short- to medium-term moving averages displayed a bearish alignment and steadily converged lower, highlighting a pronounced consolidation on a subdued note, with resistance building at each moving average overhead. On the MACD indicator, DIF (-196.6528) stood above DEA (-292.7758), and the MACD red bar registered 192.2462, suggesting some easing of bearish momentum. The recommended core trading range for SHFE aluminium is RMB...
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