Aluminium Futures
PMI recovers in peak season with structural divergence; macro pressure combined with pre-holiday adjustment dominates market
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at RMB 23,895 per tonne in the night session on September 29, reached a high of RMB 23,960 per tonne and a low of RMB 23,845 per tonne, and closed at RMB 23,910 per tonne, down RMB 110 per tonne or 0.46 per cent from the previous close. Futures came under pressure and weakened, with prices falling below the 5/10/20/40/60 moving averages across all timeframes. All moving averages turned downward, and bearish pressure was evident. Trading volume during the session was 57,873 lots, with open interest at 267,000 lots, up 1,187 lots, driven mainly by bearish position building. On the technical front, the 4-hour MACD death cross continued, with DIFF well below DEA and the green histogram expanding further, as bearish momentum continued to...
Macro rate hike expectations pressure aluminium prices, while China's continued destocking underpins the market
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2610 contract closed at RMB 24,000 per tonne, down RMB 190 from yesterday's settlement price, a decline of 0.79 per cent. It opened at RMB 24,100.00 per tonne during the day and fluctuated within a range of RMB 23,920-24,100 per tonne. The price traded below MA5 (24,349.00), MA10 (24,303.50), and MA30 (24,041.67), but above MA60 (23,597.08). The short-term upward structure faced resistance and pulled back, with a consolidating correction structure emerging. The short-term moving averages above formed key pressure. The MACD DIF (155.0670) was below DEA (162.3661), and the MACD green bar stood at -14.5982. Bullish momentum weakened somewhat. The core trading range for SHFE aluminium is suggested at RMB 23,700-24,500 per tonne. The LME aluminium 3M...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ALUMINIUM Arabia 2026
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MOREGermany’s aluminium FRP consumption reaches 1.68 Mt as 2025 trade surplus tops $3.1 billion
AL Circle Analysis: Europe’s aluminium scrap curbs, India’s risk and US’s supply opportunity
German downstream aluminium exports fall 13% in H1 2026 but US enters top 5 with 228.1% import surge
Caustic soda plant setup in India: How aluminium growth is reshaping demand, costs and opportunities
News
Energy is the single biggest variable in aluminium cost structures, says Praveena Rai, MD & CEO of MCX
India’s aluminium pricing mechanism has gained immense prominence, and its major credit goes to the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited, as they are playing a central role in improving domestic price discovery. Today, AL Circle is in conversation with an eminent personality from that esteemed organisation, Ms Praveena Rai, Managing Director & CEO of MCX. Ms Rai has candidly weighed in on the ongoing price volatility, attributing it not only to the Middle East geopolitical crisis but also to other structural factors. For instance, energy contributes to about 35 per cent of production costs but is now undergoing inflation and translating it into high aluminium prices. According to her, the taker of this volatile primary aluminium price is the downstream producers who are operating...
SHFE aluminium falls, East China premium pulls back
Today, the centre of SHFE aluminium futures fell from the previous trading day, market shipment sentiment was relatively pronounced, and overall spot aluminium transactions shifted to discounts. Today, market transactions for A00 aluminium ingot premiums were between a discount of RMB 40 per tonne and parity. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.05 M-o-M; the procurement sentiment index was 3.15, down 0.25 M-o-M. Today, the overall trading atmosphere in the central China market remained at yesterday's level. The monthly average price met market trading expectations, somewhat boosting traders' enthusiasm for shipments, but downstream processing enterprises' procurement sentiment consistently remained at the previous day's level. Ultimately, the actual...
Concerns over liquidity tightening ease marginally, aluminium prices are under pressure at high levels in the short term
Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 24,010 per tonne, down 0.62 per cent, with the price breaking below MA5 (around 24,160) but holding slightly above MA10 (23,988.5); short-term moving average support faces a test, while medium-term MA30 (23,469.5) and MA60 (23,699.67) remain in bullish alignment. MACD DIF=208.6, DEA=143.02; the golden cross remained intact, but the histogram narrowed to 131.17 (previous day 192.2), with bullish momentum weakening for a third consecutive day. Trading volume expanded slightly to 53,000 lots, and market divergence increased somewhat. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,800-24,400. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,235.5 per tonne, down 0.08 per cent; the price broke below MA5 (3,296.9) and MA10 (3,271.2) but remained above MA30...
MCX aluminium price outlook: Supply risks could push futures towards ₹356/kg
MCX aluminium prices are entering the second half of August with supply-side risks once again becoming a key market driver. ICICI Direct expects the August aluminium futures contract to find support near INR 344 per kg and move towards INR 356 per kg. Aluminium has been through a sharp correction-and-recovery cycle in 2026. After touching around INR 393 per kg (USD 4.12 per kg) on MCX in early June, prices fell towards INR 330 (USD 3.46) per kg before recovering. MCX aluminium finds support as global supply remains vulnerable Global primary aluminium production reached 5.98 million tonnes in June 2026, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), with China accounting for an estimated 3.712 million tonnes. China therefore remained by far the world's largest source of primary...
CBSA increases scrutiny of aluminium surtax exemptions under updated compliance priorities
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) has expanded its trade compliance priorities to include closer scrutiny of aluminium imports and tariff classification claims, signalling increased verification of importers seeking relief under Canada's steel and aluminium surtax framework. The updated compliance priorities, released in July 2026, introduce new verification measures covering steel derivative goods, Chapter 99 tariff classifications and trade agreement compliance, while retaining several existing customs and origin verification programmes. CBSA increases scrutiny of aluminium surtax exemptions Among the new priorities is enhanced verification of importers claiming exemptions from Canada's steel and aluminium surtaxes by classifying goods under Chapter 99 of the Customs Tariff. The...
PBOC releases easing signals, aluminium price upside room limited amid supply-demand and geopolitical game
Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2609 contract closed at RMB 23,665 per tonne, unchanged from the previous day's settlement price, with a change of 0.00 per cent. The intraday opening was RMB 23,600 per tonne, and it fluctuated within a range of RMB 23,550-23,695 per tonne. The price traded above MA5 (23,519.00), MA10 (23,371.00), and MA30 (23,142.83), but below MA60 (23,787.83). The medium and long-term moving averages as a whole maintained a bearish alignment and continued to press downward. A consolidative repair structure at low levels emerged, with the 60-day moving average above acting as a key resistance. On the MACD indicator, the DIF (19.3006) stood above the DEA (-78.0446), and the MACD histogram bar value was 194.6903. Bearish momentum continued to weaken, while bullish...
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