July aluminium foil exports pulled back 9.3 per cent M-o-M; Full-year target of 1.3 Mt still achievable

The image used in this article is generated with an AI tool and does not depict any real-time moment

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, cumulative exports of Chinese aluminium foil (HS code 7607 series) totalled 802,000 tonnes in January-July 2026, of which July exports stood at 118,800 tonnes, down 9.3 per cent M-o-M from the June high of 131,000 tonnes, with the "rush to export" pulse effect clearly peaking and retreating.

In July, all five major aluminium foil export categories declined M-o-M. The flagship category—rolled, not further worked, not backed aluminium foil (0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm)—exported 46,800 tonnes, down 7.1 per cent M-o-M, accounting for 39.4 per cent of total July exports.

On a cumulative January-July basis, the product mix remained broadly stable. The flagship category, with thickness 0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm, accounted for 38.7 per cent, and ultra-thin aluminium foil with thickness ≤ 0.007mm accounted for 20.9 per cent, together accounting for nearly 60 per cent.

By country, Thailand ranked first with 9,500 tonnes, followed by Mexico (9,300 tonnes) and South Korea (8,800 tonnes). Notably, Indonesia, the export leader in June (10,800 tonnes in June), fell sharply to 8,800 tonnes in July (-18.8 per cent M-o-M), while Mexico bucked the trend with a 14.8 per cent increase, replacing Indonesia as the second-largest destination. India fell from 10,200 tonnes in June to 8,200 tonnes (-20.2 per cent).

The July export landscape showed three salient features: First, traditional Southeast Asian markets collectively pulled back—Thailand -13.1 per cent, Indonesia -18.8 per cent, Vietnam -24.2 per cent, Malaysia -56.0 per cent, reflecting marginal demand weakness in the region; second, the North American market diverged against the trend—Mexico +14.8 per cent grew counter-cyclically, Canada +1.2 per cent edged up, but the US -10.9 per cent continued to decline; third, the Middle East market corrected significantly due to geopolitical fluctuations—Saudi Arabia -25.3 per cent, UAE -2.8 per cent.

Taking a comprehensive view, SMM maintains its full-year 2026 forecast for Chinese aluminium foil exports at 1.3-1.35 million tonnes. Cumulative exports of 802,000 tonnes in January-July have laid a solid foundation for achieving the subsequent target. To reach the full-year forecast of 1.3 million tonnes, exports from August to December need to exceed approximately 498,000 tonnes, requiring average monthly exports of about 99,600 tonnes—a target that is not difficult even under the current SHFE/LME price ratio environment, based on the following two judgments:

First, orders on hand lock in future deliveries. According to an SMM survey, some aluminium foil enterprises have already scheduled export order deliveries from the factory through mid-October. Order-taking has not shown a sharp decline, as overseas clients locked in large volumes during the earlier widening of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, creating execution inertia with concentrated deliveries over the following months.

Second, overseas demand shows resilience, and seasonal patterns point to a not-weak Q4. Although July saw a M-o-M pullback, the monthly export volume of 118,800 tonnes remains in the historical mid-to-high range. The short-term pullback in Southeast Asia does not imply a trend collapse; the long-term logic of industrialisation and consumption upgrading remains intact. The counter-trend growth in the Mexican market provides a new incremental fulcrum for the North American market, and full-year exports will likely fall within the 1.3-1.35 million tonnes range.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.