Rio Tinto Q3 2026: 10% alumina growth offsets 4% bauxite dip; aluminium output stays firm

Rio Tinto’s third-quarter (Q3) 2026 production results report contrasting trends across its aluminium value chain, with bauxite production declining 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), alumina output amounting to 6.11 million tonnes and primary aluminium stood at 2.52 million tonnes. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance for all three commodities, while highlighting operational improvements, upcoming refinery constraints and progress on Pacific aluminium smelter repowering.

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott stated, “We delivered strong operational performance in the third quarter.” He further highlighted progress on decarbonisation, noting that the company’s “Pacific Aluminium smelter repowering arrangements” were “now well progressed.”

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Bauxite: Production recovers 4 per cent Q-o-Q but remains lower Y-o-Y

Rio Tinto’s share of bauxite production reached the following figures at the end of Q3:

• 9 months 2026 vs 9 months 2025: 44.23 million tonnes vs 47 million tonnes, down 5.89 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025: 15.75 million tonnes vs 16.39 million tonnes, down 3.9 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026: 15.75 million tonnes vs 15.2 million tonnes, up 3.62 per cent Q-o-Q

The quarterly improvement reflected continued recovery at Weipa in Queensland following weather disruption in Q1. This was partly offset by the timing of a 10-day major maintenance shutdown on the off-loading line at Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG), which operates the Sangaredi mine. Planned shutdowns at Weipa in August were the main reason for the year-on-year decline.

For the first nine months, third-party shipments totalled 31.41 million tonnes, down 5 per cent from 2025. The figures reached 11.57 million tonnes in Q3, falling 2 per cent Y-o-Y, but rising 9 per cent Q-o-Q.

Rio Tinto’s full-year bauxite production guidance remains unchanged at 58–61 million tonnes.

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Alumina: Output rises 10 per cent as Yarwun prepares for a cut

Rio Tinto’s share of alumina production reached the following figures at the end of Q3:

• 9 months 2026 vs 9 months 2025: 6.11 million tonnes vs 5.62 million tonnes, up 8.72 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025: 2.07 million tonnes vs 1.89 million tonnes, up 9.52 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026: 2.07 million tonnes vs 2 million tonnes, up 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q

The quarterly improvement indicated better reliability at Queensland Alumina Limited (QAL), Yarwun and Vaudreuil. The year-on-year increase was primarily due to QAL being reported on a 100 per cent basis from 2026, as noted in Rio Tinto’s Q1 report.

However, the outlook for Yarwun remains a key consideration. As announced in November 2025, production at the Queensland refinery is expected to drop by 40 per cent in Q4 2026 due to tailings constraints. The change is expected to reduce annual production by approximately 1.2 million tonnes while extending the refinery’s life to 2035.

Despite this planned reduction, Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 alumina production guidance at 7.6–8.0 million tonnes.

Aluminium: Primary output steady Q-o-Q; smelter changes continue

Rio Tinto’s share of primary aluminium production remained fairly steady, reaching the following figures at the end of Q3:

• 9 months 2026 vs 9 months 2025: 2.52 million tonnes vs 2.53 million tonnes, down marginally by 0.4 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025: 842,000 tonnes vs 857,000 tonnes, down 1.75 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026: 842,000 tonnes vs 841,000 tonnes, down marginally by 0.12 per cent Q-o-Q

The completion of the planned Arvida smelter closure was offset by performance improvement across the remaining portfolio. Kitimat in British Columbia increased year-on-year production as higher pot and amperage levels, improved underlying performance and reservoir levels reinforced the company’s operations. Boyne Island in Queensland also recorded higher output, reflecting improved operating stability.

At Arvida, the final potlines closed in June 2026 as planned, while production at the AP60 smelter continued to ramp up. Rio Tinto said its Pacific smelter repowering arrangements were progressing following power agreements for Tomago and Bell Bay during Q3.

As regards recycled aluminium, the production metrics look like this:

• 9 months 2026 vs 9 months 2025: 200,000 tonnes vs 207,000 tonnes, down 3.38 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025: 69,000 tonnes vs 68,000 tonnes, up 1.47 per cent Y-o-Y
• Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026: 69,000 tonnes vs 70,000 tonnes, down 1.43 per cent Q-o-Q

Higher production at the remaining US facilities more than offset lower Canadian output, while the year-to-date decline reflected the closure of the Canton, Ohio, facility in mid-2025 as part of the group’s downstream portfolio reshaping.

Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 primary aluminium production guidance at 3.25–3.45 million tonnes.

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US tariffs remain a material cost consideration

Rio Tinto reported that all aluminium metal produced during Q3 was shipped. The company adjusted sales pricing, product mix and shipping destinations to optimise outcomes amid changing market conditions.

Shipments from Rio Tinto Aluminium (RTA) to US destinations totalled 255,000 tonnes in Q3, compared with 585,000 tonnes in H1 2026. Reported tariff costs were USD 430 million in Q3, against USD 773 million in H1. Average realised tariff costs for US-destination shipments rose to USD 1,685 per tonne, from USD 1,322 per tonne in H1.

The average Midwest premium duty-paid price was USD 2,420 per tonne, compared with USD 2,406 per tonne in H1. This premium applied to approximately 32 per cent of total Q3 volumes.

Rio Tinto’s Q3 results throw light on improving alumina reliability and a recovery in bauxite output from Q2, while primary aluminium production remains steady. With full-year guidance unchanged, attention now turns to Yarwun’s planned production reduction, continued AP60 ramp-up, Pacific smelter repowering and the group’s management of US tariff exposure.