Guinea bauxite export estimated to rise 3.2% YoY in Q1 FY2017-18

Guinea, the country with the highest bauxite reserves in the world amounting to 7.4 billion tonnes, is racing past many countries to become a key exporter of bauxite globally. It is ramping up its production fast to cater to the growing demand of bauxite in China. In the initial five months of 2017, bauxite export from the country to China reached 9.4 million tonnes, up 164.5 per cent from the corresponding period previous year. In May alone, Guinea bauxite export to China reached 2.2 million tonnes, up 131 per cent from last year and down 4.3 per cent from the previous month.

According to the international export-import statistics, bauxite export from Guinea was estimated at 28 million tonnes in 2016. However, the data is not in agreement with the actual annual bauxite output of the country which totalled 27.61 million tonnes last year. In 2017, the bauxite export volume from Guinea is estimated to drop to 25.7 million tonnes. Quarterly export data, on the other hand, shows a steady rise both volume and value-wise.

As per estimated trade data, Guinea’s total bauxite export for Q4 FY2016-17 reached 6.2 million tonnes. By the end of the current quarter (Q1 FY 2017-18) ending June 30, it will rise to 6.4 million tonnes. In the next quarter i.e. in Q2 FY 2017-18, estimated bauxite export will rise further to reach 6.6 million tonnes.

Value of bauxite export (forecasted) is also increasing quarter-on-quarter. It reached US$334 million in Q4 FY 2016-17, and is estimated to reach US$349 million in Q1 FY 2017-18. With the current trend continuing, the yearly export estimate will surely rise by the end of 2017.

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Right now, China is the biggest consumer of Guinean bauxite. The country with the biggest aluminium market, both in terms of volume and value, is constantly diversifying its bauxite import sources. Guinea although in dire need to retain its bauxite for the development of its domestic aluminium industry does not want to miss out on this opportunity. So, it will keep expanding its export market, at least, in the near to medium term.