From Asia to South America: How aluminium packaging hubs are affected by the Middle East conflict

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The aluminium packaging sector, which consumed around 16.70 million tonnes in 2025 and is projected to approach 17.16 million tonnes in 2026, is now confronting the risk of losing 3-3.5 million tonnes of aluminium supply this year. Packaging industries across Asia, Europe, the United States and Brazil are coming under mounting pressure as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to disrupt raw material supply chains.

The Middle East produced 6.8 million tonnes of aluminium, accounting for 23 per cent of global output. The UAE remained the region’s largest producer with 2.7 million tonnes, contributing 39 per cent of Middle Eastern output. Bahrain followed with 1.6 million tonnes, or 24 per cent, while Saudi Arabia produced 0.9 million tonnes, representing 13 per cent. Qatar contributed 0.7 million tonnes, or 10 per cent, Iran produced 0.6 million tonnes, or 9 per cent, and Oman accounted for 0.4 million tonnes, or 6 per cent.

Around 80-85 per cent of the region’s aluminium production is exported, equal to nearly 5.3 million tonnes and representing roughly 18 per cent of global aluminium exports.

Why aluminium packaging is suddenly vulnerable

The backbone of the packaging industry is flat rolled products (FRP), including aluminium sheet and foil. Global aluminium flat rolled product usage by the packaging sector is expected to reach around 17 million tonnes in 2025 and rise to 17.5 million tonnes in 2026.