The global aluminium and bauxite markets are currently experiencing a week filled with significant changes. New resource discoveries, swift project rollouts, capacity expansions and shifting trade policies are quietly altering the industry's short-term outlook. From innovative mining techniques and advancements in refineries to increased production in key regions and adjustments in global trade due to tariffs, all these factors indicate a transformation in cost structures, supply priorities and competitive landscapes.
Upstream weekly recap by AL Circle Pvt Ltd
{alcircleadd}Projects this week that cannot be missed
The Novas Minas Project, powered by Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN), achieved a milestone in Brazilian mining, revealing the fourth-largest bauxite deposit in the Pará state. This project covers areas like Oriximiná, Terra Santa and Faro with a total investment of BRL 5 billion and initial environmental approval from Ibama. This project is set to enhance the global bauxite supply over an anticipated 15-year operational period. It will play a crucial role in supporting vital industries such as packaging, automotive and renewable energy.
The researchers at the University of the Philippines, Diliman, conducted a study which confirmed the existence of a Karst bauxite deposit in Paranas, Samar. This deposit is rich in aluminium and rare earth elements. Through detailed field sampling and advanced X-ray laboratory analysis, it was found that gibbsite and boehmite are the dominant minerals, accompanied by goethite, hematite, anatase, and kaolinite. This mineral composition suggests that the area has undergone extensive tropical weathering.
Ashapura Minechem has completed the construction of a major bridge over the Konkouro River in Guinea, linking the Boffa East mining area directly to the Boffa Port corridor. This bridge aids in tackling the long-standing accessibility issues that have plagued their concession, allowing the firm access to around 80 million tonnes of high-quality bauxite reserves that were previously out of reach.
IB2 opened its first large-scale aluminium production factory in Liulin, Shanxi, China, in partnership with Shanxi Senze Energy Technology Group. This facility was completed in just 10 months, along with its innovative technology that transforms low-grade bauxite into high-quality feedstock for aluminium production. This breakthrough could breathe new life into depleted bauxite mines and help extract rare earth and critical minerals, which are essential for electric vehicles, semiconductors and defence industries.
CHALCO started the second phase of unlocking its 2021 Restricted Share Incentive Scheme, by releasing a new batch of restricted shares as part of their long-term equity incentive plan. The goal is to better align the interests of executives and employees with the company’s strategic goals, which could enhance operational performance and boost shareholder value. This announcement comes on the heels of a strong financial showing in 2025, with CHALCO reporting a rise in revenues and net profits during the first three quarters.
Unmatchable production update
India's bauxite production reached nearly 24 million tonnes in 2025, due to a boost in domestic mining capacity and changing market trends that have lessened the country's dependence on imports. As per the data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry for January to September 2025, it shows that bauxite exports skyrocketed by 67.6 per cent compared to the previous year, reaching about 405,000 tonnes and bringing in roughly USD 13.34 million in export revenue.
Vedanta Aluminium expanded its Lanjigarh alumina refinery in Odisha to a capacity of 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), after successfully completing a major growth initiative that kicked off in 2020. With this upgrade, the facility now stands as the second-largest alumina refinery outside of China, which greatly enhances India’s refining capabilities and boosts the country’s total alumina capacity to nearly 13 MTPA, making India the world’s third-largest alumina producer.
Iran's alumina production surged in 2025, with output surpassing 155 thousand tonnes in the first eight months of the Iranian calendar (from March 21 to November 21), according to data from IMIDRO. This increased from about 114 thousand tonnes in the first half of the year. To capitalise on this growth, Iran is pushing forward with a major expansion project in the Parsian Special Economic Zone as part of its Seventh National Development Plan. The goal is to establish a new facility that can produce 1 million tonnes of alumina each year, pending the necessary regulatory approvals.
Guinea-Conakry has officially started the construction of the Winning Consortium Alumina Guinea (WCAG) refinery in the Boké prefecture. This marks the country’s strategic move towards processing minerals domestically and adding value beyond just exporting raw bauxite. With a design capacity of 1.2 million tonnes of alumina per year, this facility is set to better integrate Guinea into the global aluminium supply chain.
Unfolding import/export stories with reflection to tariff
In the first half of 2025, the US bauxite imports plummeted by 17.6 per cent to around 849 thousand tonnes, down from 1.03 million tonnes during the same timeframe in 2024. This drop reflects a persistent decline in demand. The situation worsened in Q2, with imports falling by over 23 per cent compared to the previous quarter, underscoring the pressures on supply chains and the market.
In November 2025, China saw a 14 per cent drop in imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products compared to the same month last year, totalling around 240 thousand tonnes, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This marked the end of a five-month period of annual import growth and indicated a slowdown in demand from key sectors like transportation, construction and packaging.
US aluminium is facing challenges, mainly due to limited and expensive electricity supplies, along with tariff pressures that are making it hard for domestic smelting to stay competitive. Historically, primary aluminium production in the US has depended on stable, low-cost long-term power contracts, usually around USD 40/MWh. However, with energy prices on the rise and supply becoming more unpredictable, this model is under threat.
Mexico's government permitted a major tariff overhaul that will introduce duties of up to 50 per cent on a broad array of imports, including metals, vehicles, plastics and machinery from China, India and several other Asian countries that lack free trade agreements with Mexico. These new measures are set to kick in on January 1, 2026. The legislation, which has received Senate support to strengthen domestic manufacturing and enhance supply-chain participation, impacts around 1,400 product lines and signals Mexico's strategic pivot towards trade policies that prioritise local industry.
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