A measure intended to increase the availability of recycled aluminium in Europe could ultimately reduce it, says Julia Ettinger

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Europe’s aluminium scrap market is at the centre of a growing debate over whether rising exports are tightening domestic supply or are a result of weak demand from European smelters. In this interview, Julia Ettinger, Secretary General of Recycling Europe, explains the market factors driving scrap exports and the challenges affecting smelter capacity utilisation. She also discusses the possible impact of a proposed export levy on scrap collection, processing and recycling investment, alongside changing aluminium trade flows towards Asian markets and the outlook for Europe’s recycled aluminium sector through 2030.

Julia joined Recycling Europe in 2018 and has served as Secretary General since April 2024, leading the association’s work on key regulatory, policy and legal issues affecting the recycling industry. Her role places her at the centre of discussions around the policies and market conditions shaping Europe’s recycling sector. ead the full interview to understand the market and policy forces shaping the future of Europe’s aluminium recycling market.

AL Circle:  European aluminium producers argue that rising scrap exports are tightening domestic feedstock availability, while Recycling Europe sees no proven structural shortage. Where does the disagreement lie: overall availability, specific grades and alloys, regional mismatches, price competitiveness or weak domestic demand?

Julia Ettinger: The disagreement concerns several of the factors mentioned in the question.

Overall availability and weak domestic demand: We do not see evidence of an overall shortage of recycled aluminium (“scrap”), in the EU. On the contrary, part of the recycled aluminium generated in Europe is exported to third countries because there is currently insufficient demand for this material within the EU.

Specific grades and alloys: We agree with European Aluminium that for certain alloy types there is less availability on the EU market. However, this is not the result of exports, but rather of a mismatch between the alloys that are made available on the market and those for which demand is currently strongest.

There are several reasons for this. First, the economic slowdown has reduced activity in key sectors such as construction and automotive, meaning that less material from these sectors is reaching end of life and becoming available for recycling. Second, many products being recycled today, such as end-of-life vehicles, contain aluminium alloys for which there is currently less demand. The time lag between a product being manufactured and reaching the end of its life must therefore be taken into account.

Price competitiveness: Recycled aluminium prices are determined in a global market and are closely linked to the London Metal Exchange.

Regional mismatches: Recycled aluminium is traded internationally on a daily basis. This can create situations in which recyclers need to sell material, because stockpiling is limited by permits, but no European buyer is available or asking for the material at that time. In such cases, exports provide an essential outlet for material that would otherwise have no immediate market.

AL Circle: EU aluminium scrap exports reportedly reached around 1.27 million tonnes in 2025, up 50 per cent from 2019. How does Recycling Europe interpret this increase, and to what extent does it reflect surplus grades, weak EU demand, stronger overseas prices or gaps in European remelting capacity?

Julia Ettinger: In our view, the increase in exports reflects the lack of domestic demand for recycled aluminium. However, export volumes should always be assessed in the broader context of total European production and demand. The EU metal recycling industry is well established and achieves high recovery rates, including an end-of-life vehicle recycling rate of approximately 88 per cent. Thanks to these high recovery rates, the European recycling industry produces around 6.2 million tonnes of recycled aluminium annually. Approximately 80 per cent of this material is consumed by European aluminium smelters, while around 20 per cent is exported to third countries. However, when both exports and imports of recycled aluminium are taken into account, the EU’s net exports amount to only around 10 per cent of total recycled aluminium production.

AL Circle: European aluminium producers have cited an annual scrap deficit of around 2 million tonnes and reports that roughly 15 per cent of EU recycling furnace capacity is idle due to insufficient feedstock. How does Recycling Europe reconcile these claims with its view that some scrap volumes exceed domestic demand?

Julia Ettinger: We recognise that European smelters are currently struggling to fully utilise their capacity, and we strongly support efforts to strengthen the European aluminium industry, including by addressing structural challenges such as high energy prices.

However, it is important to understand that it is not a lack of recycled aluminium (scrap) that is preventing smelters from fully utilising their capacity, but rather weak demand from key downstream sectors, particularly automotive and construction. This creates a clear chain reaction: weaker demand for aluminium ingots from the construction and automotive sectors leads to lower demand from aluminium smelters for recycled aluminium (scrap), which in turn results in increased exports due to insufficient domestic demand. Restricting the market for recycled aluminium will not solve the structural challenges facing EU smelters. On the contrary, limiting recyclers’ access to international markets without first strengthening domestic demand risks weakening the recycling sector and, ultimately, reducing the amount of recycled aluminium available in Europe.

AL Circle: Following Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, Recycling Europe said stronger Asian demand encouraged European foundries to sell ingots and billets to Japan and other Asian markets, including products made from recycled aluminium supplied by its members. What trade-flow changes did you observe, and how significant was this shift towards Asia?

Julia Ettinger: Recent disruptions to aluminium supply linked to the conflict in the Middle East have led to higher prices for aluminium semi-finished products, particularly ingots and billets. As a result, we have observed that exports of these products from the EU have increased and these resources have ‘leaked’ to Japan and other Asian markets in recent months.

This is a normal market response in a global commodity market, where producers redirect exports towards markets with stronger demand and more favourable market conditions. However, what is not normal is to treat recycled aluminium and semi-finished products containing that same material differently. While restrictions on exports of recycled aluminium are being considered, no one is talking about restricting exports of semi-finished products. This creates a clear inconsistency: recycled aluminium could be restricted from leaving Europe, while the same material could still be exported once transformed into an ingot or billet. This risks distorting competition and penalising the recycling industry without actually keeping more aluminium in Europe. If the objective is to retain aluminium in Europe, policy must consider the entire value chain rather than applying restrictions selectively to one stage of it.

AL Circle: What is Europe’s current annual aluminium scrap demand, and how does it compare with volumes generated and available within the region? How do you expect demand to evolve over the next three to five years?

Julia Ettinger: Currently, around 5–5.5 million tonnes of recycled aluminium are consumed by European smelters each year. Demand has remained relatively stable in recent years, and based on current trends, we do not expect a significant increase over the next three to five years without additional policy measures or a stronger economic recovery.

We strongly support measures to stimulate European demand for recycled aluminium, for example through recycled-content targets under the End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation and measures supporting aluminium recycling under the Industrial Accelerator Act and the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation. In our view, creating stronger and more predictable demand for recycled aluminium would be far more effective than introducing export restrictions and would benefit the entire aluminium value chain.

Before considering any new trade measure, policymakers should also carefully assess the cumulative impact of recently adopted and forthcoming legislation on trade flows and material availability. In particular, the Waste Shipment Regulation has already introduced new conditions for exports, including audit requirements and potentially a ban on exports to non-OECD countries, which will affect future trade flows.

At the same time, the new End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation introduces requirements that will substantially increase treatment costs, including the obligation to progressively separate aluminium into two and subsequently four different grades. Regardless of whether a recycler is an SME or a large company, all operators will need to invest in advanced sorting and separation technologies. To justify these investments and enable the production of high-quality recycled aluminium, there must be a viable market for these materials. Without sufficient demand at economically sustainable market conditions, the business case for investing in more advanced recycling capacity becomes significantly weaker.

AL Circle:  Recycling Europe has said speculation over an export fee has already led to cancelled contracts and renegotiation clauses. How widespread is this disruption, and is it already affecting contract terms, transactions or physical trade flows?

Julia Ettinger: Speculation about potential export restrictions has already created significant uncertainty for the recycling sector. Even before any measure has been formally proposed, some investments in recycling capacity have been put on hold.

Following media reports of a possible 15 per cent export levy, several of our members reported contracts being cancelled, renegotiated or amended to include clauses addressing the risk of future trade restrictions.

This demonstrates that policy uncertainty alone can already affect commercial decisions and market confidence. The longer this uncertainty persists, the greater the risk of disruption to investment, contracting and trade flows.

AL Circle: If a 15 per cent export levy is introduced, which part of the recycling chain is likely to absorb the cost first, and how quickly could it affect collection prices and scrap volumes?

Julia Ettinger: The recycling value chain is highly interconnected, so we would expect the effects of an export levy to be felt across the entire chain very quickly.

The immediate impact of a 15 per cent export levy would fall on companies that recycle metallic waste, meaning those that buy it, collect it and treat it. Faced with a more captive market and reduced competition for their output, our recyclers would likely have to adjust their purchasing activities and buy less metallic waste, including end-of-life vehicles.

The consequences would then move upstream, affecting waste management actors, including municipalities. Lower demand and lower prices for metallic waste could ultimately weaken collection incentives and reduce the volumes entering formal recycling channels.

We are already seeing investments in recycling capacity being put on hold because of the current uncertainty. An export levy could reinforce this trend.

AL Circle: Recycling Europe has highlighted that recyclers cannot simply stockpile aluminium scrap when domestic demand is weak because yard permits limit storage. Without a corresponding rise in EU demand, how could a 15 per cent levy affect collection, processing volumes and material availability across the aluminium value chain?

Julia Ettinger:  Without a corresponding increase in European demand, an export levy would likely force recyclers to adapt to a more captive market. If there are fewer viable outlets for their material, recyclers will ultimately have to purchase and process less metallic waste (including from ELVs).

This would be completely counterproductive. A measure intended to increase the availability of recycled aluminium in Europe could ultimately reduce it. Lower revenues and reduced market access would weaken recyclers’ capacity to collect, process and invest in the technologies needed to recover high-quality material.

The effects would be felt throughout the value chain. Lower purchasing volumes could reduce collection incentives, while reduced processing capacity could mean that valuable materials are not recovered to their full potential. In the worst cases, materials that could otherwise have been recycled may end up in landfills.

AL Circle: Overall, what is Recycling Europe’s outlook for the European aluminium scrap market through 2030 in terms of demand, supply, exports, prices and investment?

Julia Ettinger:  At present, the outlook remains uncertain. Recyclers will need to make significant investments in advanced sorting of aluminium scrap, particularly in response to new requirements under the End-of-Life Vehicles Regulation. For these investments to be economically viable, recyclers need sufficient and predictable demand for their output at economically viable market prices.

The future share of exports will depend on the strength of European demand. If EU demand increases, for example through recycled-content obligations, stronger industrial activity and an economic recovery of the continent, export volumes could naturally decline in the coming years.

Conversely, if domestic demand remains weak while access to international markets is restricted, investment in recycling capacity could further suffer. This would risk undermining the very objective policymakers are seeking to achieve: increasing the availability of high-quality recycled aluminium in Europe.

EU’s priority for the coming years should therefore be to create the market conditions that make it economically viable and attractive to collect, sort, treat (= recycle) and use more recycled aluminium in Europe. Stronger demand, investment certainty and a well-functioning market will do more to strengthen Europe’s circular aluminium value chain than restricting trade.