Aluminium Market Outlook
China trade imbalance hits aluminium: India’s imports rise as exports slide
India’s trade deficit with China crossed USD 100 billion in the first nine months of 2026 as imports continued to outpace exports, with aluminium trade data showing a widening imbalance in the latest available period. While India’s overall exports to China recorded strong growth between January and September, the value of its aluminium exports to the neighbouring country declined year on year through July, even as aluminium imports from China increased. Data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed that bilateral trade rose 25.4 per cent to USD 144.45 billion between January and September 2026. India’s imports from China increased 23.3 per cent to USD 125.19 billion, while exports to China grew 40.7 per cent to USD 19.26 billion. Despite the rise in exports, the trade...
Demand is flying, but margins aren't: Kaiser Aluminum’s Q3 dilemma
Kaiser Aluminum is seeing stronger demand across aerospace, defence, packaging and semiconductor-related markets, with customer bookings extending into 2027. However, the aluminium producer’s latest results highlight a challenge: converting rising shipments and record conversion revenue into stronger profitability as planned outages, lower scrap utilisation and startup costs weigh on margins. The company reported third-quarter 2026 shipments of 300 million pounds, up from 270 million pounds in the same period last year, while conversion revenue climbed 25 per cent year-on-year to a record USD 439 million from USD 351 million. Net sales reached USD 1.21 billion. Despite the growth, adjusted EBITDA increased by only USD 3 million year-on-year to USD 84 million. A USD 29 million unfavourable...
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15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Conference
15th International Bauxite, Alumina & Aluminium Conference & Exhibition - IBAAS–VFMSTA 2026
ICSOBA 2026 - 44th International Conference and Exhibition
SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Conference
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
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A report that reveals where the aluminium casting industry is heading and how businesses can act.
LEARN MOREEurope’s recycled aluminium production: Germany, Italy and the UK anchor a competitive market
Global EV sales to hit 35.4 million by 2030, with aluminium usage forecast to rise 38% in North America & 79% in China
AL Circle analysis: How do Germany’s 32.8% automotive aluminium share, 40% Diet Coke can price rise & 3.54Mt North American extrusion demand matter?
AL Circle Analysis: Guinea’s 150Mt bauxite cap, China’s import swings, US tariffs draw aluminium Q4’26
EU approves Germany’s power relief instrument: Could aluminium producers save €459m annually?
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2027 Aluminium supply-demand balance forecast: High profits drive concentrated capacity additions outside china, supply-demand balance shifts from deficit to surplus
Since 2026, the global aluminium market has maintained a tight balance, with producer profitability remaining high in recent years. As a result, the pace of new project construction outside China has accelerated significantly, and capacity expectations have been continually revised upward. SMM calculations show that as new capacity is increasingly commissioned in Indonesia, India, the Middle East, and other regions, the global aluminium supply and demand structure will shift from the current deficit to a gradual surplus in 2027, and 2027 could become a key turning point in this capacity expansion cycle. 2026: Geopolitical turmoil coupled with demand support; strong profits lay the foundation for an expansionary cycle In 2026, the global aluminium market was in a supply deficit. According...
Aluminium safety workshop trains 120+ workers as US industry targets stronger domestic supply chains
The US aluminum industry is placing renewed emphasis on workforce safety, domestic production, and material recovery, with the Aluminum Association’s sold-out Casthouse Safety Workshop in Charlotte, North Carolina, highlighting the importance of safe molten aluminum handling. The program trained more than 120 industry workers and has been running for over 30 years, with the Association describing it as a global benchmark for casthouse operators and supervisors. The workshop comes as the industry continues to focus on strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities and supply chains. Alongside workforce training, the Aluminum Association has called for bipartisan permitting reform to accelerate investment in US aluminum production, arguing that faster approvals could help unlock the...
Canada wants to keep its aluminium at home, starting with rolling mills
Canada is looking to expand its domestic aluminium processing capacity as the government seeks to reduce the sector’s dependence on the United States. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has described more than USD 193 million in federal funding for projects at five industrial sites in Quebec as a first step towards strengthening the country’s aluminium supply chain and building the capacity to process more metal at home. The funding, announced in La Baie, Quebec, covers projects at four Rio Tinto facilities in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region and the Alouette aluminium smelter in Sept-Îles. Joly, who also serves as the minister responsible for economic development in Quebec, said the investment reflects the strategic importance of aluminium to Canada’s economy and national sovereignty. The...
AL Circle analysis: How do Germany’s 32.8% automotive aluminium share, 40% Diet Coke can price rise & 3.54Mt North American extrusion demand matter?
Aluminium’s downstream and end-user world is having one of those fortnights where a beer can, a luxury sports car, a German construction site and an Indian furnace all end up in the same conversation. The metal may begin its life far upstream, but its real fuss is playing out in cans, cars, extrusions, buildings and factories, where tariffs, trade policy, energy costs and demand cycles decide who wins. This fortnight highlights that aluminium demand is moving towards electric vehicles, lightweight transport and long-life infrastructure, even as packaging and construction feel the pinch of cost and weak activity. Meanwhile, producers from Vietnam to New Zealand are arguing over the oldest question in the business of how much protection, taxation or openness does a downstream industry need...
Macro sentiment relatively cautious, consumption resilience underpins aluminium prices
Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 23,145 per tonne, edging down 0.19 per cent. Although prices held above MA5 (23,077) and MA10 (23,044), they remained capped by MA30 (23,760) and MA60 (23,767), with the overall market in a consolidation phase following the sharp decline. The MACD indicator's dual lines (DIF=-261.81, DEA=-237.16) operated below the zero axis, with the green bar expanding to -49.29, failing to extend the previous day's bottom divergence repair, indicating fading rebound momentum. Trading volume shrank to 54,800 lots, with market activity turning cautious. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 22,700-23,500. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,008 per tonne, edging up 0.07 per cent. Prices barely held above MA5 (3,002.4) but remained pressured by MA10...
Technical rebound combined with destocking support; Marginal supply increase limits aluminium price upside
Futures: SHFE aluminium closed at RMB 23,300 per tonne, up 1.44 per cent. Prices broke firmly above MA5 (23,057) and MA10 (23,082), but upside remains capped by MA30 (23,802) and MA60 (23,772), with the overall move representing a strong rebound after oversold conditions. Although the MACD lines (DIF=-265.99, DEA=-229.00) remain below the zero axis, the green bars narrowed sharply to -73.98 (previous day -156.23), indicating a significant decline in bearish momentum and the initial emergence of a technical bullish divergence. Trading volume reached 102,100 lots, reflecting active bottom-fishing. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 23,000-23,800. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,037.5 per tonne, up 0.35 per cent. Prices have stabilised above MA5 (3,026.7) and MA10...
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