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Macro perspective: Overall macro atmosphere leaned warm, with multiple positive factors resonating
{alcircleadd}Ex-China, US April CPI data showed surging energy prices drove headline inflation to a three-year high, fuelling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes within the year. US-Iran negotiations remained volatile, with the Strait of Hormuz continuing in a closed state; US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China, and market risk appetite was relatively positive.
Fundamentals: Domestic-overseas divergence pattern, with high inventory pressure persisting in China
Ex-China, amid the Middle East conflict, overseas aluminium exhibited a rigid supply gap, which drove continued LME destocking. As of this Wednesday, LME inventory decreased by approximately 11,700 tonnes W-o-W to 346,500 tonnes. The LME aluminium Cash-3M premiums structure continued to deepen, with Wednesday's premiums rebounding by USD 24.02 per tonne W-o-W to USD 76.12 per tonne. In China, as of this Thursday, SMM aluminium social inventory was approximately 1.428 million tonnes, destocking by approximately 13,000 tonnes compared to last Friday. The initial destocking boosted market sentiment, but inventory remained at high levels, continuing to weigh on aluminium prices.
Overall, current macro front saw concentrated release of positive factors, the global aluminium rigid supply gap was confirmed, and coupled with initial destocking of domestic aluminium ingot inventory, multiple positive factors provided support for aluminium prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remained the core factor suppressing significant price rallies, and weak spot market transaction performance further limited upside room for aluminium prices. SHFE aluminium's most-traded contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 24,300-25,000 per tonne next week, while LME aluminium is expected to trade in the range of USD 3,620-3,700 per tonne.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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