Ever since the US President Donald Trump’s tariff imposition, the market witnessed its regional aluminium premium rise, exceeding USD 1 per pound. Consequently, for the first time, the US Midwest Premium for aluminium has surged to an all-time high at USD 2,182 per tonne. According to the Fastmarkets report, this development occurred on January 28.
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In early June, the Trump administration imposed a 50 per cent tariff on aluminium imports, with the premium hitting a record above 64 cents. The US Midwest Premium, a surcharge over the London Metals Exchange (LME), has more than doubled and remained on a rising trend since then.
On January 8, 2026, the premium exceeded USD 2000 for the first time, closing at USD 2004.24 per tonne.
The price graph for LME Aluminium Premium Duty Paid US Midwest in the H2 of 2025 shows a significant hike. From USD 1,300 per tonne on July 1, it hit an all-time high of USD 1,950.15 per tonne on November 10, reaching USD 1,971.09 per tonne on December 31.
As a rule of law, the premium hike weighed on import volume through 2025. According to the official data, the US primary aluminium import volume in Q1 2025 was around 1.07 million tonnes, which in Q2 slipped by 23.25 per cent to 834,552 tonnes. Q3 import volume declined further, amounting to 687,586 tonnes, marking a 17.6 contract sequentially. Declines in each quarter resulted in a cumulative plunge of 35.6 per cent from Q1 to Q3, leading to tightened supply in the market.
Why the price volatility?
Volatility stemmed from the US tariffs doubled to 50 per cent in June 2025 under Section 232, ending exemptions and sparking uncertainty, pre-buying rushes followed by destocking, retaliatory measures from China and the EU, and global supply strains like disruptions in Europe and low LME stocks, causing frequent price revisions.
The 25 per cent tariff imposed in March, followed by another 25 per cent in June, cut primary aluminium imports, such as the volume imported from Canada in H1 2025, declining by 16.43 per cent Y-o-Y. Uncertainty over permanent tariffs and failed Canada talks further drove hedging chaos and contract renegotiations.
The demand-supply gap widened
US primary aluminium production continues to lag demand, a gap left to be bridged by imports. However, supply tightened further by tariffs that sharply reduced primary metal imports and drove up premiums.
While domestic industrial demand weakened in H1 of 2025, as industrial orders fell 4.4 per cent across North America, global market tightness has supported scrap exports, further constraining primary aluminium availability.
Q4 estimates of the US primary aluminium import
Import volume in October 2025 amounted to 244,144 tonnes of primary aluminium.
A year-to-date (YTD) comparison between 2024 and 2025 depicts a difference of around 15 per cent or 465,062 tonnes, as the volume during January-October 2024 stood at 3,060,211 tonnes versus 2,595,148 tonnes in the succeeding year..
Based on the M-o-M trend and adding the average drawn for the remaining two months of 2025, the estimated import total for the calendar year would be around 3 million tonnes of primary aluminium. The total import volume of 2024 stood at 3.6 million tonnes.
A Year-on-Year (YoY) comparison between the primary aluminium import volumes of 2024 and 2025, with the average volumes for November and December 2025, shows the cumulative import volume dipping by 17 per cent (approx.), from 3.6 million tonnes in 2024 to 3 million tonnes (approx.) in 2025.
Provided the market remains in similar conditions with the increasing US tariffs, retaliatory measures and LME stocks, and follows a similar trend of price hikes, the import of primary aluminium in the US is likely to soften even further, leading to an even steeper decline.
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