LME aluminium stocks fall 52.6% in nine months, with Q3 average down 43.6% year on year

LME aluminium stocks declined by more than half during the first nine months of 2026, falling by 267,875 tonnes from 509,250 tonnes on January 2 to 241,375 tonnes on September 30 (52.6 per cent). The decline continued throughout the period, with average warehouse inventories falling each month. Compared with the same period in 2025, monthly average stocks were lower across all nine months, with the gap widening in the third quarter.

Q1 LME aluminium stocks fall 18.2 per cent

LME aluminium inventories continued to decline during Q1 2026. Month-end stocks fell from 495,725 tonnes in January to 465,550 tonnes in February, before dropping further to 416,775 tonnes in March.

Monthly average inventories stood at 498,670 tonnes in January, 481,801 tonnes in February and 440,710 tonnes in March. The average declined by 3.4 per cent in February and a further 8.5 per cent in March. The quarterly average was 472,934 tonnes, down 14.6 per cent from 553,479 tonnes in Q1 2025.

The year-on-year decline was also visible in each month's average. January's average was 18.2 per cent lower than the 609,380 tonnes recorded in January 2025. February's average declined by 13 per cent from 554,008 tonnes a year earlier, while March was down 10.9 per cent from 494,414 tonnes.

Daily stocks in January reached a high of 509,275 tonnes on January 22 and a low of 483,000 tonnes on January 20. In February, the highest stock level was 497,175 tonnes on February 2, while the lowest was 465,550 tonnes on February 27. March recorded its highest inventory of 463,550 tonnes on March 2 and its lowest of 416,775 tonnes on March 31. Across Q1, stocks fell by 92,500 tonnes, or 18.2 per cent, between the highest and lowest daily readings.

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Q2 sees further decline

The downward movement continued through Q2. LME aluminium stocks fell to 367,050 tonnes at the end of April, down 49,725 tonnes from March-end. Inventories decreased further to 338,000 tonnes in May and 303,675 tonnes in June.

Monthly average stocks declined from 389,598 tonnes in April to 347,403 tonnes in May and 320,314 tonnes in June. This represented month-on-month reductions of 10.8 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively. The Q2 average stood at 351,467 tonnes, down 11 per cent from the 394,879 tonnes recorded in Q2 2025.

On a monthly year-on-year basis, April's average was 11.3 per cent lower than the 439,216 tonnes recorded in 2025. May's average declined by 12 per cent from 394,876 tonnes, while June's average was 9.2 per cent below the 352,656 tonnes recorded a year earlier.

Daily stocks in April reached a high of 414,175 tonnes on April 1 and a low of 367,050 tonnes on April 30. May recorded its highest inventory of 364,725 tonnes on May 1 and its lowest of 338,000 tonnes on May 30. In June, stocks reached a high of 337,700 tonnes on June 1 before falling to 303,675 tonnes on June 30. Across Q2, the difference between the quarter's highest and lowest daily readings was 110,500 tonnes, or 26.7 per cent.

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Q3 average drops below 260,000 tonnes 

LME aluminium inventories continued to decline in Q3, although the pace of reduction in monthly averages eased towards September. Stocks stood at 264,400 tonnes at the end of July and fell to 241,375 tonnes by September 30.

Monthly average inventories declined from 282,350 tonnes in July to 251,215 tonnes in August and 243,377 tonnes in September. The respective month-on-month reductions were 11 per cent and 3.1 per cent. The quarterly average stood at 259,579 tonnes, down 43.6 per cent from 460,697 tonnes in Q3 2025.

The year-on-year gap widened through the quarter. July's average was 31.8 per cent lower than the 413,946 tonnes recorded in July 2025. August's average fell by 47.2 per cent from 475,485 tonnes a year earlier, while September's average was 50.9 per cent below the 496,130 tonnes recorded in September 2025.

Daily stocks in July reached a high of 301,775 tonnes on July 1 and a low of 264,400 tonnes on July 31. In August, the highest inventory was 262,650 tonnes on August 3, while the lowest was 246,725 tonnes on August 28. September recorded its highest stock level of 246,725 tonnes on September 1 and its lowest of 241,375 tonnes on September 30. Across Q3, stocks declined by 60,400 tonnes, or 20 per cent, between the quarter's highest and lowest daily readings.

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Quarterly averages show sharper decline

A comparison of quarterly average inventories shows that LME aluminium stocks were lower in every quarter of 2026 than in the corresponding periods of 2025. The Q1 average declined by 14.5 per cent year on year, while Q2 recorded a reduction of 11 per cent. The largest annual decline came in Q3, when the average fell by 43.6 per cent.

Quarter on quarter, the average inventory decreased by 25.7 per cent in Q2 from 472,934 tonnes in Q1 to 351,467 tonnes. The decline continued in Q3, with the average falling by a further 26.1 per cent to 259,579 tonnes. Overall, the quarterly average stock level was 45.1 per cent lower in Q3 than in Q1 2026.

The figures show that LME aluminium inventories remained on a downward trend throughout the first nine months of 2026. The year-on-year comparison also highlights a widening gap in the third quarter.

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