
While Canada and Mexico have signed the new USMCA trade deal with the US; there is still no confirmation on whether the US will remove the aluminium tariffs on its two big trading partners without imposing any import quota. The 10% tariff on imported aluminium that was imposed in March 2018 by Trump has complicated the trade equations with Mexico and Canada. We would try to analyse how the tariffs have impacted the foreign trade of semi-finished aluminium products (bar, rod, plates, sheets etc.) with this two allies.
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The US exported about 382,000 tonnes of semi-finished aluminium to Canada in 2018, a drop of about seven per cent from 409,000 tonnes in 2017. While about 250,000 tonnes of semi-finished products were imported by the U.S. from Canada in 2017, it dropped eight per cent to 230,000 tonnes in 2018. Both the import and export volume dropped during 2018.

As for Mexico is concerned, The US exported about 464,000 tonnes of semi-finished aluminium to Mexico in 2018, an increase of about eight per cent from 430,000 tonnes in 2017. This could be possible that some of the exports are shifted to Mexico due to retaliatory tariffs by Canada. While about 47,400 tonnes of semi-finished products were imported by the U.S. from Mexico in 2017, it dropped slightly to 46,500 tonnes in 2018.
The total semi-finished product import by the U.S. stood at 1,410,000 tonnes in 2018, an increase of about three per cent from 1,370,000 tonnes in 2017. Exports of semi-finished products from the U.S. has not seen much of a change and remained almost flat YoY.
The data shows that the tariffs have not much affected the total import by the US. Though the volume of import from China dropped, the total volume of import only increased after the tariffs. Canadian primary aluminium is imported by the US downstream producers and refabricated into semi-finished products. A major part of that is again exported to Canada as semi-finished products. The cross border trading has been affected by the tariffs leading to a drop in export volume to Canada. Import from Canada has also dropped because of the 10% tariffs by the US.
US import has not dropped after tariffs, but the source has been shifted to other countries from Canada and China. Similarly exports were directed to other destinations due to retaliatory tariffs by the close allies.
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