Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd is expected to face weaker smelting margins in the second half of 2026 as aluminium supply constraints ease, input costs rise and market sentiment shifts towards a potential surplus in 2027, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research. “The narrative now is increasingly shifting to a potential surplus in 2027. Coupled with falling Japan-Port (MJP) premium and rising alumina as well as carbon anode costs, we foresee sequentially weaker smelting margins in 2H2026,” the research house said in a note on Monday. HLIB Research estimates that Press Metal’s core earnings for the third quarter of 2026 will range between MYR 600 million (USD 146.85 million) and MYR 650 million (USD 159.09 million), representing a decline of 10 per cent to 17 per cent...
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Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) improved on March 20 compared to the previous close. Cash price reported gains by wide margins, futures contracts recovered from the previous session’s decline, while opening stocks continued to slide. The LME aluminium cash bid price rose from USD 3,198 per tonne on March 19 to USD 3,328.5 per tonne on March 20, increasing by 4.08 per cent. The cash offer price climbed from USD 3,200 per tonne to USD 3,329 per tonne, up 4.03 per cent day-on-day. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ”. The three-month contract followed a similar trend. The LME aluminium 3-month bid as well as offer price recorded a gain of 4.2 per cent. The bid price edged up from...
Alcoa has reported an increase in orders as supply disruptions in the middle east continue to alter global aluminium trade flows, tightening availability across key markets. The shift follows the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has redirected significant volumes of metal. Alcoa, which typically ships around 4 million tonnes of aluminium to the Middle East each year to supply smelters, is now placing those volumes in alternative markets. According to Beerman, material that would normally move into the region is being absorbed elsewhere. Molly Beerman, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Alcoa said, “If you look at the Gulf smelters, they are producing just under seven million tonnes of aluminium. That's about 9 per cent of the global supply. And if you exclude...
Alcoa, a global industry leader in bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium manufacturing, witnessed an 11 per cent fall in its early trading on Thursday. However, on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the aluminium futures dropped the largest since 2018. The decline is mainly owed to the growing tension regarding the global economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in Iran, leading to widespread losses in the industrial metals markets. Looking at the LME benchmark for three-month aluminium, a drop of 8 per cent, totalling USD 3,115 per tonne, was seen. This was before the price bounced back to USD 3,214 per tonne. Nonetheless, this directly implies that the gains that had built up since the start of the conflict in the Middle East had raised concerns about the stability of aluminium...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is exporting aluminium through Jeddah, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. CEO Ali Al Baqali said the company is sending 40–60 per cent of its exports through Saudi Arabia. The route involves land transport of about 1,400 km (870 miles) to Jeddah. He said this adds land costs, but overall transport costs have not increased significantly. The company is still meeting delivery commitments. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " In Baqali’s words, “We are incurring the land cost. However, we are able to meet our commitment to our customers on time.” Alba has already declared force majeure and reduced production. It is also managing raw material supply. The company has about one month...
As we are aware that the current geopolitical tension has created a temporary halt to the passage of goods through the Strait of Hormuz, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price soared to an all-time high. However, now the market is slowly but steadily witnessing a return to the range it was previously in. The LME cash bid moved down by USD 201.5 per tonne, shifting from USD 3,399.5 per tonne to USD 3,198 per tonne. The cash offer also changed by USD 200 per tonne, from USD 3,400 per tonne to USD 3,200 per tonne, where both the bid and offer reflected a 6 per cent change from the previous day’s close. Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics The downward trend continued at the longer-dated contracts, where both the LME 3-month bid and offer...
Australia is negotiating a complex support package to keep the Tomago Aluminium smelter active. The push could lock taxpayers for up to a decade into annual subsidies of a minimum of USD 300 million. Owing to rising energy costs and a lack of affordable long-term renewable power, Australia’s largest aluminium smelter, the Tomago facility, faces potential closure by 2028. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Under the proposed deal, the federal government-owned Snowy Hydro would supply electricity to the smelter. In this structure, Snowy Hydro is likely to acquire renewable energy through long-term contracts at market rates and relay it to Tomago at a lower price, as the government covers the difference....
Aluminium inventories in China have climbed above 1.3 million tonnes, reaching their highest level since 2020 as weak domestic demand coincides with tightening global supply linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Inventories are piling up, even as factories enter the busy period that follows the Lunar New Year holiday. The sluggish performance of a highly used industrial metal could be a warning for the Chinese economy, which is also facing a crisis due to elevated energy costs and other disruptions due to the Middle East conflict. Despite the post-Lunar New Year demand season, Chinese downstream sectors, including construction and manufacturing, have...
Due to some recent changes in the United States’ tariffs, Alvance British Aluminium, one of the world’s greenest metal production plants, announced a 10 per cent production boost. The smelter is located in Fort William and exports nearly half of its output to the US after the tariffs were put in place last year. The boost, irrespective of the crisis, has been able to enter the US market because the UK is the only country to face a lower tariff. Previously, Trump imposed a 50 per cent global tariff on aluminium and steel imports, but the UK was the only country to receive a special reduced rate of 25 per cent. Trump's decision to raise tariffs on aluminium and steel imports was made with the intention of boosting domestic production. Irrespective of this action of increasing the tariff,...
LME aluminium prices moved lower on March 18 compared to March 17 across both cash and forward contracts, while exchange inventories also declined. The cash bid price fell to USD 3,399.5 per tonne on March 18 from USD 3,425 per tonne on March 17, marking a 0.74 per cent decrease. The cash offer price slipped to USD 3,400 per tonne from USD 3,426 per tonne, down 0.76 per cent. In the forward market, the 3-month bid price declined to USD 3,379.5 per tonne from USD 3,412 per tonne, a 0.95 per cent drop, while the 3-month offer price edged down to USD 3,380 per tonne from USD 3,413 per tonne, also reflecting a 0.97 per cent decrease. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 ”. Further along the curve, the...
Commerzbank said China’s aluminium output has increased by about 3 per cent compared to last year. Production is now above the government’s annual cap. Higher aluminium prices and changes in alumina supply have supported this rise. Analyst Volkmar Baur said production is expected to stay above 3.75 million tonnes in the coming months. This is linked to the ongoing situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blocked due to conflict. In his words, “As long as the Iran conflict persists and renders the Strait of Hormuz impassable, production disruptions in the Gulf region are likely to continue." For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " The disruption has affected supply in the Gulf region. Aluminium...
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is seeing support from strong demand for aluminium. Demand is linked to industrial activity and use in key sectors. Prices are influenced by the London Metal Exchange and regional premiums, which remain firm. The company operates smelters in the United States and Iceland. Its total production capacity is about 770,000 tonnes per year. In 2025, it produced about 638,000 tonnes of primary aluminium, and shipments reached over 647,000 tonnes. Its main plants include Grundartangi in Iceland, Sebree in Kentucky, and Mt. Holly in South Carolina. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " The Mt. Holly smelter is being brought back to full capacity. Production is expected to be restored...
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) will reroute its aluminium exports and raw material imports through Oman’s Sohar port in the coming days, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. The conflict has forced companies across the Gulf to adjust supply routes that depend on the strategic waterway. With annual production of about 2.7 million tonnes in the UAE, EGA’s operations reflect the scale of disruption to trade flows. The impact is already visible in global markets. Aluminium prices climbed to a four-year high of USD 3,546.50 per tonne last week, up 12 per cent since the conflict began, reflecting concerns over tighter supply. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry...
For deliveries scheduled during the April-June quarter, Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to the payment of a USD 350 per tonne premium, which buyers will pay in addition to the current base price on the London Metal Exchange. At the end of February, global aluminium producers had suggested a premium of USD 220 to 250 per tonne for the buyers in Japan for April-June quarter (Q2 2026). That was already 13 to 28 per cent higher than the premium of USD 195 per tonne agreed for the previous quarter. Also read: Declining aluminium prices boost market procurement sentiment, premiums stabilise A few days later in mid-March, Rio Tinto, offered the premium of USD 350 per tonne to Japanese buyers, which was 40 per cent higher than the previous offering of USD 250 per tonne. Compared with the current...
After a disruption in the LME closing prices for March 16 which resulted in producing the figures using LME’s standard waterfall procedures, March 17 saw the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices continue to slip. The declining trend began on March 16 after the aluminium prices surpassed USD 3,500 per tonne on March 12 amid the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor. LME cash bid eased to USD 3,425 per tonne on March 17 from USD 3,439.5 per tonne on March 16 , recording a difference of 0.42 per cent. The cash offer settled at USD 3,426 per tonne, slipping from USD 3,440 per tonne, down 0.41 per cent day-on-day. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook...
Hindalco Industries Limited expects its aluminium exports to rise in the coming months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupt regional supply. Managing Director Satish Pai said that the company plans to increase shipments to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, leveraging supply gaps created by the ongoing conflict in the region. While Hindalco already exports to these markets, as noted by Pai, “the macro situation is West Asia has given us headroom to export more to these regions.” Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain At present, the company exports around 25 per cent of its total aluminium output of approximately 1.3 million tonnes annually. The...
Tensions in the Middle-East are shaking up aluminium supply chains, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. That choke point exposes cracks in the region's grip on global primary aluminium production, from giants like UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium, Bahrain's Alba, and Qatar's Qatalum. It's a golden chance for steady players like India's Vedanta, whose all-in-one setup dodges these headaches. The Gulf pumps out about 9 per cent of the world's aluminium, thanks to cheap, gas-fired smelters in Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain. They've long kept prices low and competitive. But when crisis hits, being the cheapest doesn't matter if you can't deliver. Gulf nations cranked out 6.16 million tonnes in 2025 (around 9 per cent of global supply) with much of it shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar's...
After slipping by 1.1 per cent, the aluminium prices settled at INR 346.1, which is influenced by a stronger US dollar, with the future hope for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve seeming to be fading. Irrespective of the dip, aluminium prices were supported throughout the week, mainly because of the ongoing shipping disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. This has raised serious concerns about supply risks in global metal markets. On the supply side, the indicators show that the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium inventories dropped to 445,300 tonnes, hitting the lowest point since July. On the other hand, the cash contract was trading at a USD 29 per tonne backwardation compared to the three-month contract, suggesting that near-term supply conditions are...
On March 16, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price, even after being amidst the war and supply crunch due to the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, after days of an upward rising trend, has calmed down. However, at the longer dated contracts, the LME price seems to continue its upswing. Both the LME cash bid and offer inched down by USD 80 per tonne or 2.3 per cent, where the bid shifted from USD 3,519.5 per tonne to USD 3,439.5 per tonne. At the same time, the cash offer changed from USD 3,520 per tonne to USD 3,440 per tonne. Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics A similar trend is seen in the LME longer-dated contract, where the 3-month bid rose by USD 70.5 per tonne or 2 per cent, shifting from USD 3,485.5 per tonne to USD...
