Vedanta with demerger in motion, aluminium may unlock next phase of value

Vedanta Limited has already delivered a remarkable run for investors. From its INR 87 delisting price in 2020, the stock has surged nearly tenfold over six years. But with that rally largely behind it, a natural question emerges-is there still more value left to unlock?

The market doesn’t seem to agree on the answer. Some investors have started locking in gains, reflected in the stock’s recent decline, with shares falling over 3 per cent on April 23 to INR 733.05 and extending losses to a fourth straight session. The stock is now more than 7 per cent below its 52-week high of INR 794.90, touched on 21 April 2026 following the demerger record date announcement. At the same time, another section of the market believes the story may still have room to run.

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Aluminium, currency and the next leg of growth

So, what could drive the next phase? A key factor is currency. Vedanta tends to benefit from a weaker rupee, with every one-rupee depreciation against the dollar potentially adding INR 900–INR 950 crore to EBITDA.

But the bigger conversation is around aluminium. Could this segment emerge as the company’s next major value driver? For every 10 per cent move in LME aluminium prices, Vedanta’s EBITDA could rise by about USD 445 million. For the first nine months of the last financial year, average aluminium prices were around INR 2,634 per tonne.

Also, supply disruptions in the Middle East have affected smelting capacity, and these constraints are not expected to ease anytime soon. Reflecting this, brokerages such as Kotak have already revised their aluminium price assumptions upward-though even these updated estimates still trail current spot prices.

Also read: Vedanta expands renewable energy adoption by over 50%, reducing 3 MT CO₂ emissions in FY26

Valuations, demerger and what lies ahead

Valuation is another piece of the puzzle. Currently, firms like Kotak and Nuvama are valuing the aluminium business at around 6.5 times EBITDA. However, there is a growing view that this could move closer to 7 times. If such a re-rating materialises, aluminium’s contribution to Vedanta’s overall valuation could increase meaningfully.

All of this ties back to the broader demerger story, with May 1 set as the record date. The restructuring, combined with macro tailwinds and aluminium’s potential, could shape the company’s next growth phase.

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