Aluminium production hit by the Middle East conflict: Nearly 4% in Q1 and 32% in Q2

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Global aluminium production and supply is considerably driven by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which contributes around 9 per cent of aluminium to the supply chain. Every year, the GCC produces and supplies approximately 6 to 6.5 million tonnes and 5 to 5.5 million tonnes of aluminium, respectively. However, 2026 is proving to be an exception owing to the ongoing Middle East conflict, as the impact of the geopolitical tensions clearly reflect on the aluminium production of the region in the January-March quarter (Q1) of 2026.

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Aluminium production and supply have been strained for nearly two months since the end of February and the beginning of the Middle East conflict between the US-Israel and Iran. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have shot up 13.67 per cent as the aluminium production in the Gulf region remains exposed to the direct impact of the geopolitical tensions, resulting in substantial production cuts that can potentially topple the supply chain balance across the globe.

Aluminium production volume in the Gulf region, as recorded by the International Aluminium Institute, depicts that the GCC region has produced 1.49 million tonnes of primary aluminium in Q1 2026, the lowest in the past four years. 

GCC Q1 performance

Production in January and February 2026 remained stable with average daily output of around 169,000 and 170,000 tonnes, respectively. Supply disruption was evident as average daily output went down about 5.88 per cent to 160,000 tonnes in March, thereby affecting the Q1 production volume.