Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd is expected to face weaker smelting margins in the second half of 2026 as aluminium supply constraints ease, input costs rise and market sentiment shifts towards a potential surplus in 2027, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research. “The narrative now is increasingly shifting to a potential surplus in 2027. Coupled with falling Japan-Port (MJP) premium and rising alumina as well as carbon anode costs, we foresee sequentially weaker smelting margins in 2H2026,” the research house said in a note on Monday. HLIB Research estimates that Press Metal’s core earnings for the third quarter of 2026 will range between MYR 600 million (USD 146.85 million) and MYR 650 million (USD 159.09 million), representing a decline of 10 per cent to 17 per cent...
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Unable to secure a long-term, affordable electricity supply , South32 has placed the Mozal Aluminium Smelter near Maputo, Mozambique, on care and maintenance, effective March 15, 2026. The move effectively brings 25 years of primary aluminium production at the site to a conclusion. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain The step has been taken despite six years of negotiations with the Government of Mozambique , Eskom and other stakeholders regarding future power arrangements for the aluminium smelter beyond March 2026. While the facility remains idle, South32 expects to incur one-off costs of estimated USD 60 million, as well as current annual care and maintenance expenses worth approximately USD 5...
Russia proposed cooperation with West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, on nuclear power development, aluminium processing and education during a visit by Ambassador Sergey Tolchenov to the Indonesian province in early March 2026. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook, book the report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " The discussions explored potential investment in a nuclear power plant and an aluminium processing facility supported by West Kalimantan’s bauxite reserves. “Our purpose in visiting West Kalimantan is to introduce the nuclear power plant construction technology we possess while exploring potential cooperation,” Tolchenov said. Governor Ria Norsan said the provincial government has already identified a site for the project. Also Read:...
The Government of Mozambique is seeking negotiations to prevent a permanent shutdown of the Mozal Aluminium Smelter. Owned by South32, Africa’s largest aluminium smelter, Mozal is to suspend operations from March 15, owing to unsustainable electricity costs. As the smelter is a key pillar of the country's economy , in addition to causing disruptions in aluminium supply across the world, the deadlock is likely to cause massive unemployment. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Government spokesperson Inocêncio Impissa stated that authorities would welcome the continuation of operations at the smelter . Open to discussions aimed at keeping the facility active, he said, “It would always be good to have...
Aluminium Bahrain BSC (Alba), the world’s largest aluminium smelter operating on a single site, has initiated a controlled and safe shutdown of Reduction Lines 1, 2 and 3. These lines account for approximately 19 per cent of Alba’s total annual production capacity of 1.62 million tonnes. The shutdown is a precautionary measure amid supply and transit disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz , intended to safeguard operational continuity and optimise the use of available raw material inventories. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain With temporary suspension of operations at these lines, Alba will focus production on Reduction Lines 4, 5 and 6, allowing the smelter to allocate strategic raw materials more...
The cash aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged higher on March 13 compared with the previous day, while the 3-month contract and longer-dated futures declined. Warehouse stocks on the exchange also fell slightly. On March 13, the LME aluminium cash bid price stood at USD 3519.5 per tonne, up 0.10 per cent from USD 3516 per tonne on March 12. The cash offer price was USD 3520 per tonne, also rising 0.10 per cent from USD 3516.5 per tonne a day earlier. In contrast, the LME aluminium 3-month bid price declined to USD 3485.5 per tonne on March 13, down 0.19 per cent from USD 3492 per tonne on March 12. The 3-month offer price fell to USD 3486 per tonne, a 0.23 per cent decrease from USD 3494 per tonne. To know more about the global primary aluminium industry 2026 outlook,...
The aluminium value chain has been shaped by a mix of expanding raw material supply, geopolitical tensions and shifting market signals. While bauxite mining activity has continued to grow across several producing regions, developments further downstream - particularly around the Strait of Hormuz - have raised concerns about supply security for both alumina and primary aluminium. Corporate results from major producers have also highlighted how companies are navigating this evolving landscape. Bauxite sector sees steady expansion and new resource developments Global bauxite production continued to trend upward in 2025. Estimates from AL Circle place worldwide output at around 475–480 million tonnes, with projections suggesting that production could rise by roughly 6 per cent in 2026. Supply...
The once prominent aluminium producer in Latin America, Venezuela’s aluminium industry has experienced a dramatic decline over the past decade, largely due to persistent electricity shortages, ageing infrastructure and prolonged political and economic instability. The sector, which once produced hundreds of thousands of tonnes of primary aluminium annually, now operates at only a fraction of its installed capacity. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain Structure of the Venezuelan aluminium value chain The aluminium industry of Venezuela is managed by the state-owned Corporación Venezolana de Guayana (CVG), which oversees the country’s integrated aluminium and steel operations. Its aluminium assets include...
The Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) at the Ministry of Commerce & Industry has been reached out by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI), asking them to remove aluminium and its products from the recent government notification. This took effect immediately, slashing the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) rates by 50 per cent. The industry organisation mentioned that aluminium production facilities within Advance Authorisation (AA) holders, Export Oriented Units (EOUs) and the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were included in the RoDTEP scheme until February of this year. With the current global trade uncertainties, the AAI has emphasised the pressing need to extend the RoDTEP scheme’s coverage for exports from aluminium producers situated in AA, EOU and...
The Middle East tensions continue to drive the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices. March 12 witnessed the LME aluminium cash price soar and surpass the USD 3,500 mark. Similarly, 3-month contracts reported gains, while exchange inventories continued to slide. The LME aluminium cash bid price rose from USD 3,465 per tonne on March 11 to USD 3,516 per tonne on March 12, increasing by 1.47 per cent. The cash offer price climbed from USD 3,467 per tonne to USD 3,516.5 per tonne, up 1.43 per cent day-on-day. The 3-month contract followed a similar trend. The LME aluminium 3-month bid as well as offer price recorded a gain of 1.45 per cent. The bid price edged up from USD 3,442 per tonne on March 11 to USD 3,492 per tonne on March 12, while the offer price rose from USD 3,444 per...
Norsk Hydro has confirmed that aluminium production at the integrated aluminium complex Qatalum, Hydro’s joint venture with Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company QPSC (QAMCO), will continue at around 60 per cent capacity. The announcement followed the initial announcement of a controlled shutdown of aluminium production on March 3. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain The controlled halt was announced after Qatalum’s gas supplier QatarEnergy warned of a potential suspension of gas supply. However, it has been confirmed that gas deliveries will continue at reduced levels until further notice, allowing the smelter to maintain operations at roughly 60 per cent capacity. The update has come amid geopolitical...
Rio Tinto increased its aluminium premium offer to Japanese buyers to USD 350 per tonne for primary aluminium shipments for April to June (second quarter of the calendar year). This is 79 per cent higher than the current quarter. The increase reflects concerns about the conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt supply. The new offer is 40 per cent higher than Rio Tinto’s earlier proposal of USD 250 per tonne. If accepted, it would be the highest since the April to June quarter of 2015, when premiums were USD 380 per tonne. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our exclusive report “ Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 " By late February, aluminium producers offered Japanese buyers premiums of USD 220 to 250 per tonne for April-June shipments. This represented...
Owing to the rising geopolitical tension, leading to the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, halting Middle East shipments, tightening supplies in Europe and the US, Mercuria, a commodity trader, is planning to pull out a large volume of aluminium from the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse, confirmed by three sources. Annually, the country's primary aluminium production is nearly 7 million tonnes, which is 9 per cent of the global output. As already said and known, the recent halt of the Strait of Hormuz, which is being triggered by the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, has put a stoppage to aluminium shipments since last week. As of Monday, the sources who are closely related to the situation divulged that Mercuria might have cancelled or set aside nearly 100 thousand...
LME aluminium prices moved higher on March 11 compared with March 10, while exchange inventories recorded a slight decline. On March 11, the LME aluminium cash bid price stood at USD 3,465 per tonne, up from USD 3,402 per tonne on March 10, marking an increase of USD 63 or 1.85 per cent. The cash offer price rose to USD 3,467 per tonne from USD 3,402.5 per tonne, gaining USD 64.5 or 1.90 per cent. The LME aluminium 3-month contract also strengthened. The 3-month bid price reached USD 3,442 per tonne on March 11, compared with USD 3,388 per tonne on March 10, reflecting a rise of USD 54 or 1.59 per cent. The 3-month offer price increased to USD 3,444 per tonne from USD 3,390 per tonne, also up USD 54 or 1.59 per cent. In contrast, longer-dated contracts softened. The December 2027 bid...
The ongoing Middle East conflict has led to 40 per cent of London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium inventories being cancelled or marked for delivery. Several industry sources stated that the cancellations are linked to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across the value chain On March 10, 2026, Monday, LME data showed that about 98,150 tonnes of warranted aluminium were cancelled in the warehouses of Port Klang, Malaysia. Last week, another 45,000 tonnes were withdrawn from the same warehouses. Also Read: Middle East conflict: Barring India’s crude oil import, fuelling food crisis and aluminium shortage? Total LME stocks now stand at 452,375 tonnes – the lowest...
The Middle East’s rise as a global aluminium powerhouse has largely been driven by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Large, energy-efficient smelters across the region have enabled steady production growth and helped the Middle East secure a stronger foothold in the global aluminium market. Primary aluminium output increased from 5.8 million tonnes in 2021 to 6 million tonnes in 2022, reflecting a 3.14 per cent year-on-year rise. Expansion continued as production reached 6.2 million tonnes in 2023 and 6.3 million tonnes in 2024, marking growth of 2.35 per cent and 2.07 per cent respectively. However, momentum slowed in 2025, when output declined to 6.15 million tonnes, a 2.95 per cent drop from the previous year. The slowdown followed raw material supply crisis last year and is still...
The Middle East conflict involving the US-Israel and Iran is to disrupt global trade flows and hamper India’s energy security and supply chains, according to the government body of Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM). Closure of the maritime corridor of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly jeopardised trade, resulting in a crude oil crisis and raising a question mark on the Indian energy supply, while intensifying fertiliser and aluminium shortage. However, Union Minister Piyush Goyal’s affirmation of “absolutely no shortage of fuel” is likely to offer relief to the worried Indian consumers. Nonetheless, let us dive deeper into the tanker and analyse. Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with Global ALuminium Industry Outlook 2026 across...
China Hongqiao Group, one of the world’s largest aluminium producers, has seen its market value rise significantly since 2019. The company’s shares have surged by about 585 per cent since Zhang took control of the business that year. The company supplies aluminium to several major Chinese technology firms, including Huawei Technologies, Xiaomi, and BYD. Its performance reflects the broader strength in the aluminium market, as prices of the metal have risen more than 25 per cent over the past year, supported by increasing demand from energy-transition sectors such as electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines. Aluminium prices also reached a four-year high on March 9, 2026, highlighting tightening market conditions. For the global aluminium value-chain 2026 outlook, book our...
On March 10, the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price, amidst the ongoing geopolitical tension and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz trade route, experienced a significant change, especially on the inventory side. Moreover, there is a mixed signal in the futures aluminium prices, but concerning the cash bid and offer, a slight dip is experienced. Both the LME cash bid and offer inched down by USD 4 per tonne or 0.12 per cent, where the bid shifted from USD 3,046 per tonne to USD 3,402 per tonne and the offer from USD 3,406.5 per tonne to USD 3,402.5 per tonne. However, the price still remains high and has not come down from USD 3,400 per tonne yet. Must read: Key industry individuals share their thoughts on the trending topics On the contrary, the 3-month contract...
