Primary aluminium production ramp-up in GCC likely to bolster its export market years ahead

After China, GCC (Gulf Corporation Council) or the Gulf countries are substantially growing in primary aluminium production. In 2017, the total primary aluminium production volume in the Gulf region was 5.14 million tonnes, which in 2018 grew by 5 per cent to 5.4 million tonnes. According to the Gulf Aluminium Council (GAC) estimation, the output is likely to increase further to 5.7 million tonnes by 2019. 

The growing demand for aluminium across the world is the primary driving force for this growth in the Gulf aluminium market, according to GAC. Besides, the constant efforts of the GCC countries to make a shift towards the non-oil sector, especially the aluminium industry, is another important factor.

The top five aluminium producers that have primarily contributed to the transition of the Middle East, especially the Gulf countries, from an oil economy to an emerging aluminium superpower are –

• Emirates Global Aluminium(EGA) 
• Aluminium Bahrain (Alba)
• Qatar Aluminium (Qatalum)
• Sohar Aluminium
• Maa’den

Among the above list, EGA, a collaboration of Dubal - Dubai Aluminium and Emal - Emirates Aluminium, produces the highest amount in the region, followed by Alba. While EGA in 2018 produced 2.63 million tonnes of primary aluminium, Alba churned 1.1 million tonnes.

The top five aluminium producers listed above are based at five different Gulf countries, such as EGA at UAE, Alba at Bahrain, Qatalum at Qatar, Sohar at Oman, and Maa’den at Saudi Arabia.

Let us now take a look at the export trend of these five Gulf countries over the past three years. In tandem with the growth in production, the export volume has also been found growing over the years. In 2017, the total unwrought aluminium (both alloyed and non-alloyed) exports by the Gulf countries were at 5.42 million tonnes, while in 2018 at 5.43 million tonnes. In 2019, the volume is likely to continue to grow marginally to come in at an estimated amount of 5.44 million tonnes.  

As can be seen in the above graph, the United Arab Emirates is the highest exporter among the other countries. However, its export amount is slightly declining over the years. In 2017, the country exported 3.2 million tonnes, which in 2018 came in at 3.07 million tonnes after inching down by 4.06 per cent. In 2019, the export volume from the UAE is estimated to plunge further to 3.04 million tonnes, down 1 per cent from the year earlier.

But the exports from Bahrain, which is another significant unwrought aluminium (both alloyed and non-alloyed) exporter from the list of GCC countries, have been growing year on year. From 654,384 tonnes in 2017, the country’s exports in 2018 grew to 801,053 tonnes, up 22.41 per cent. 2019 is estimated to be of no exception but likely to see further growth of 12.6 per cent to 893,930 tonnes.

The unwrought aluminium exports from Oman and Saudi Arabia had also recorded a Y-o-Y growth in 2018 from 252,748 tonnes to 280,855 tonnes and from 580,855 tonnes to 619,853 tonnes, respectively. But the exports from Qatar dropped last year from 682,973 tonnes in 2017 to 664,327 tonnes. Nonetheless, they are expected to rebound this year to 746,805 tonnes, unlike the exports from Oman and Saudi Arabia as they are estimated to plunge to 236,062 tonnes and 528,943 tonnes, respectively.

Keeping the potential world market of aluminium in mind and the contribution of the Gulf region, it can be concluded by saying that both the production and exports from the region are likely to continue to see further growth in the years to come. It should be mentioned here that US$3-billion worth expansion of Pot Line 6 at Alba will expectedly boost the capacity to 1.54 million tonnes, making it the world’s largest single-site smelter.