AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
Grow with
AL Circle
Constantia Flexibles unveils revolutionary digital print solution for aluminium dairy lids
At FACHPACK 2024, Constantia Flexibles introduced a groundbreaking digital print technology tailored for die-cut aluminium dairy lids. This innovation, described as an "industry-first," was discussed by Michael Harder, Senior Vice President Dairy, and Thomas Schulz, Vice President Group Marketing Communication. The new solution promises significant benefits for the dairy sector and sets new standards in sustainability, efficiency, and flexibility. Constantia Flexibles' latest offering addresses key industry demands, including food safety, ease of use, and sustainability, all while adhering to rigorous regulatory standards like the Single-Use Plastics Directive (SUP) and Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). These regulations highlight the challenges and importance of developing...
Are microbes the future of rare element extraction from red mud? Let's uncover the newly sought process
Cultivating restorative microbial activity to remediate metal-impacted mine wastes has retained some successes, mainly using man-made wetlands or passive bioreactors to generate (microbially mediated) anoxic and sulfidic conditions. Image Source: American Geosciences Institute Recently, researcher trio Dr Rosie Gillane, Fernanda Soto, and Luke Webster from the University of Queensland have come up with a method of detoxifying red mud , waste material yielded by the tonne at bauxite mining sites across Australia, a report shares. "You would not usually associate bacteria or microorganisms with mine rehabilitation," says Luke, whose PhD thesis focuses on 'synbio' mining techniques like the one he describes. The process is known as biohydrometallurgy, in which particular proteins can be used...
October 2024: China’s aluminium processing industry PMI begins to experience off-season, recording a fall of 12.64% M-o-M
China’s domestic aluminium processing industry saw a 12.64 per cent downturn in the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) during October 2024, reflecting a transition from peak to the traditional off-season. Although the PMI level in the said month stood above 50, the worsened trend in the preceding month due to low orders on hand amid the full-fledged traditional off-season is likely to bring the November PMI below the 50 per cent mark. According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the PMI index for China’s domestic aluminium processing industry was 53.9 per cent, compared to 61.7 per cent in September. The weaker PMI for aluminium plate, sheet and strip industry, aluminium foil, industrial aluminium extrusion, and primary aluminium alloy mainly contributed to the overall decline....
Navigating uncertainty: US elections, economic shifts, and the aluminium industry
AL Circle recently had the privilege of attending the presentation of Mr Uday Patel, Senior Research Manager for Metals and Mining – Aluminium, Wood Mackenzie, at the ICSOBA 2024 conference in Lyon, France. This enlightening session provided valuable insights into the current challenges facing the aluminium industry, as well as the potential outlook that could reshape its future. His expertise provided a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic landscape, highlighting the critical factors influencing market trends and the implications for stakeholders across the industry. This write-up is derived from the macroeconomic outlook based on Wood Mackenzie’s Q3 analysis, which Mr Uday Patel shared during his presentation. As the global economy begins to recover from the shocks of recent...
Ease in overseas grid construction leads to China’s aluminium wire and cable exports to a 2-year low
According to China customs data, September 2024 witnessed a continued decline in aluminium wire and cable exports. Month-on-month, the export volume was down by 29 per cent, while year-on-year, 39.77 per cent lower. Following a stable export trend at the beginning of the year, recording over 20 per cent growth Y-o-Y, China’s aluminium wire and cable shipments started facing a hit, making the Q3 export volume unsatisfactory. Image Source: Huaxiao Metal Focusing on September, China’s aluminium wire and cable exports were valued at $28.06 million, down by 25.48 per cent and 38.42 per cent. As per the historical survey, the quantity of exported items was about two-year low, standing at 9,300 tonnes. Among these, the export volume of steel-core aluminium stranded wire and similar products was...
Bauxite's secret cache: Can EU tap into rare earth elements amidst global competition?
The European Union (EU) has been actively engaged in the global competition to secure critical minerals and rare earth elements. Despite the aggressive competition worldwide, the EU's efforts to scan every nook and cranny of the globe for these essential components have been relentless. However, the ripple effect of such acquisitions and their potential impact on the world has posed significant challenges, akin to navigating a net-zero-driven project through back-to-back speed breakers. Image Source: UK Green Building Council (UKGBC) The U.S. Geological Survey's release "Going Critical" clarified, "REEs are necessary components of more than 200 products across a wide range of applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as cellular telephones, computer hard drives, electric...
A dip in September alumina output fails to dampen Y-T-D growth trajectory; Next quarter needs over 34.335 Mt to beat last year
In September 2024, the world's alumina production decreased to its lowest level in the past five months, with all the major alumina-producing countries or regions registering drops in their output. However, despite the sequential decline and a 5-month low, the world's alumina production stood above 12 million tonnes. Image Source: Advanced Ceramic Materials (ACM) Corporation Based on the International Aluminium Institute's (IAI) data, the intensity of the world's alumina production drop was higher in September compared to the decline previously seen in April. September was the second month in two quarters after April when the world aluminium production fell. According to an IAI survey, the world's alumina production in September 2024 decreased by 4.23 per cent month-on-month compared to a...
A by-product of bauxite refinement - ATH's demand and market grows worldwide with promising future
Alumina trihydrate (ATH), also known as aluminium hydroxide — chemical formula Al(OH)3, has a vast market potential ahead. The element, which is derived during the refinement of bauxite through the Bayer process, is majorly known for its flame retarding property. Image Source: Anglo Pacific Minerals The global market for alumina trihydrate is significant, with a size estimated at USD 4.21 billion in 2023. This figure is projected to grow to USD 5.8 billion in the next five years, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6 per cent. These numbers underscore the substantial market potential of ATH. Production method of ATH: ATH, known by various standard names in the chemical industry such as alumina hydrate, hydrate alumina, aluminium hydrate, and aluminium hydroxide, is a...
‘September peak season’ leads to production and demand growth for aluminium billet, but current inventory level hints at near-term muteness
The traditional "September peak season" revitalised demand for China's primary aluminium billets and boosted their operating performance, leading to a new high production volume for the year and historically. Despite fewer operating days in September compared to August, the domestic primary aluminium billet production increased, driven by the resumption of previously closed production facilities and the commencement of new projects, especially in Xinjiang. According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, the daily average output of China's primary aluminium billets in September 2024 grew by 2,000 tonnes month-on-month to around 51,000 tonnes per day, bringing the total monthly production to 1.528 million tonnes, up by 15,000 tonnes from August (31 days), utilising 31.205 million tonnes of...
China’s industrial profits hit a 3-year low, emulating aluminium extrusion sector. Can fiscal stimulus measures revive growth?
The National Bureau of Statistics has reported a steep monthly fall in China's industrial profits to a three-year low in September 2024 on account of several factors, such as sluggish demand and consumption, decreased product prices, processing fees upsurge, and high costs of raw materials. Speaking of industries, the aluminium downstream sector was no exception, particularly the industrial aluminium extrusion, due to the slow market in the building & construction sector. Image Source: China Hongqiao Group Among the major industries that drive the Chinese economy, building & construction plays a pivotal role. In 2023, the construction industry accounted for around 6.8 per cent of the country's GDP. However, the unprecedented downturn in the B&C sector, currently reeling from a wave of...
Will Guinea’s bauxite industry mirror Indonesia’s strategic export shift?
The bauxite mining subsidiary of one of the leading aluminium producers recently announced the suspension of its bauxite export operations from Port Kamsar (GNKMR). However, there has been no official justification for the move. How can it impact the Guinean workforce? Despite possessing the world's largest bauxite reserves, the highest-grade iron ore, and significant diamond and gold resources, Guinea remains one of the poorest countries in the world. The move raises serious concerns for the future of its Guinean workforce, with potential repercussions for local employment and the broader economic landscape. According to sources close to the situation, this operation pause could lead to significant job losses if not promptly resolved. It is important to note that these types of mining...
September 2024: China’s primary aluminium imports decline 16% M-o-M on limited arbitrage opportunity
According to the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminium import receded from its monthly high in September 2024, marking a sequential decline of 16 per cent. Even on an annual basis, the import volume decreased by 31.7 per cent, astonishing the industry for the unprecedented downtrend. The Shanghai Metals Market cautioned about the high chances of an interim fall in China's primary metal imports due to limited arbitrage opportunity because of the narrow price gap between LME and SHFE since the beginning of September. China's domestic imports of primary aluminium mainly relied on long-term contracts from Russia and parts of Southeast Asia. Malaysia's contribution to China was also affected in September due to 100,000 tonnes of production cut because of an accident....
Aluminium and copper prices set to rise: Goldman Sachs raises 2025 outlook following China's demand stimulus
In a significant upward revision, the leading global investment banking, securities, and asset and wealth management firm, Goldman Sachs, has enhanced its 2025 price forecasts for aluminium and copper, driven by increased demand potential in China, the world's largest consumer of these metals. The investment banking giant has adjusted its 2025 average aluminium price outlook to $2,700 per tonne, up from the previous forecast of $2,540 per tonne. Meanwhile, the average copper price forecast has also seen a rise, now set at $10,160 per tonne, an increase from $10,100. These changes come as the London Metal Exchange (LME) reports aluminium trading near $2,634.50 a tonne, following a peak of $2,715—the highest level since May 31. LME copper is currently trading at $9,510.50 a tonne. Goldman...
Top 5 companies leading aluminium foil production in China
From food & beverage, pharmaceutical, and cosmetics packaging to industrial applications such as insulation in the electrical and aerospace industries or vehicle components, aluminium foil is one product in many roles, meeting the needs of a broad spectrum of end-user industries. Thus, this thinly rolled aluminium product boasts enormous global demand, showcasing a whopping figure of its usage at 6.1 million tonnes in 2023. The country that primarily drives this usage, with extensive production capabilities, is China, the world’s largest producer, consumer, and exporter of aluminium foil, which alone accounts for about 48 per cent of the global foil usage and 63 per cent of the world’s foil production capacity. This article will explore the names that lead the aluminium foil market in...
Global primary aluminium production in Q3 bypasses September's downtrend, posting a 2.36% quarterly growth
In September 2024, primary aluminium production globally experienced a month-on-month fall, mirroring the trend seen across all the major primary metal-producing countries/regions. However, the monthly fall in September posed no impact on the growing trend through the third quarter of the year, as demonstrated by the data from the International Aluminium Institute. According to the data revealed, the world’s primary aluminium production decreased by 3.19 percent from August but maintained the 6 million tonnes level. Amounting to 6.007 million tonnes compared to 6.205 million tonnes in August, the output in September registered a fall after two consecutive months of rise. Total production worldwide in Q3 2024 stood at 18.416 million tonnes, marking a continued Q-o-Q rise of 2.36 per cent...
Is the EU treading a perilous path with its aluminium bans on Russia, potentially triggering a chain of economic and geopolitical repercussions?
Amidst the chances of importing from intensively limited sources, the European Union (EU) is reconsidering banning Russia as its aluminium supplier. The immediate result? Small and medium-sized business entities, which rely on close to 70 per cent of turnover and 92 per cent of employment in the European aluminium sector, dissolve within a short period; simultaneously, prices spike roof-high due to the demand-supply gap. The European Union imports over 90 per cent of its aluminium, of which 8-9 per cent comes from Russia. Speculations about a probable ban on low-carbon aluminium from Russia to the European market have, in the meantime, pushed prices up by 15 per cent so far this year, and prices are forecasted to rise in a steep graph if the ban is imposed. Why the sanction? Based on the...
Staying competitive in a digitally transformed world: Strategies for aluminium producers
In today's rapidly evolving industrial landscape, material developers and producers are feeling the pressure to optimise their operations and embrace the new era of global connectivity. What was once a competitive edge, like proximity to a customer, is no longer sufficient to outpace the competition. Take the case of a midwestern forging producer who once had a natural advantage working with automotive OEMs. Now, a shop in one corner of the world could easily provide the same services, thanks to digital transformation and advanced automation. So how can aluminium producers remain competitive in this new world? More importantly, how can they maximise the investments already made in their facilities? The answer lies in embracing the ongoing revolution in manufacturing, often referred to as...
Supply disruptions in Guinea weigh on China’s September bauxite imports, declining by 25.7% M-o-M
China’s bauxite imports in September 2024 fell 25.68 per cent month-on-month owing to supply disruptions from Guinea, first due to unfavourable weather conditions but now due to exports being blocked by Guinea’s customs authorities. According to China’s General Administration of Customs, China’s bauxite import volume in September amounted to 11.5536 million tonnes, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 25.68 per cent from 15.546 million tonnes but edged a Y-o-Y growth of 15.82 per cent. The monthly decline is due to decreased import volume from Guinea, Malaysia, and Brazil. Although the imports from other countries like Australia, Turkey, Laos, and Ivory Coast increased, they were insufficient to offset the monthly drop. As the above chart indicates, China’s bauxite imports from Guinea...
