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15 JULY 2026 AL CIRCLE

Aluminium prices rise on supply concerns and low LME inventories

EDITED BY : STAFF EDITOR 2MINS READ

market

Stock image for referential purposes only

Aluminium prices rose 0.40 per cent to settle at INR 339.80 (USD 3.57), supported by ongoing supply concerns and declining inventories on major metal exchanges.

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Inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses remained at their lowest level since 2022, while stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell 4.8 per cent, reflecting continued demand for physical aluminium.

Market sentiment was also influenced by renewed geopolitical concerns after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets, raising the possibility of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for aluminium exports from the Gulf region. However, expectations of improving regional supply and easing tensions in the Middle East limited further price gains.

On the supply side, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) recently restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a shutdown of around three and a half months. The company expects production to reach 50 per cent of capacity within days and return to full technical capacity by the end of the year, which is expected to gradually improve alumina availability.

Explore: The most comprehensive and forward-looking industry-focused report – Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook

Meanwhile, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of USD 395 per metric tonne for aluminium shipments during the July-September quarter, indicating continued demand in the region.

According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium production declined 1.7 per cent year-on-year in May. In contrast, China's aluminium production increased 1.7 per cent, while exports also recorded strong growth, supported by higher overseas prices.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects the global aluminium market deficit to narrow during 2026 before moving into a surplus in 2027. However, the bank said demand from expanding data centre construction is likely to continue supporting aluminium consumption over the medium term.

From a technical perspective, analysts noted signs of short covering in the market, with immediate support around INR 338.5 (USD 3.56) and resistance near INR 341.3 (USD 3.59).

Participate in our upcoming e-Magazine - Mine to Market: ALuminium Producers & Manufacturers 2026


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EDITED BY : STAFF EDITOR 2MINS READ

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