45MT cap in name only! China’s influence on the global aluminium market lives on through Asia

As China edges closer to its self-imposed primary aluminium production cap of 45 million tonnes, a set of billion-dollar questions is reverberating in air. Is the global market counting days for supply deficit? Will anybody step in to bridge the gap? If yes, then who can do so at scale? While these questions seem obvious, answers may appear to be far less aligned with prevailing assumptions. However, before exploring the possibilties, let us check how the market is already reacting to the early signals of supply deficit amidst steady demand growth.

How is primary aluminium responding to today’s market condition?
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