Hindalco, Vedanta & NALCO shares fall as EGA restarts Al Taweelah smelter; aluminium prices forcast at $2,800/t in CY27

Indian aluminium stocks are under pressure as the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA) Al Taweelah smelter adds to concerns about global supply, while Axis Capital forecasts a market surplus in calendar year 2027 (CY27). Shares of Hindalco Industries, Vedanta Aluminium Metal and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) declined amid a weaker outlook for aluminium prices.

Aluminium has retreated from its 2026 high of around USD 3,800 per tonne to approximately USD 3,020 per tonne. Axis Capital expects prices to fall further to USD 2,800 per tonne in CY27, as recovering production and rising Chinese exports weigh on the market.

EGA restarts half of Al Taweelah smelter

EGA has restarted 631 of the 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, with full production targeted for the first quarter of 2027. The facility is expected to produce around 1.6 million tonnes in 2025.

The smelter was shut in March following a geopolitical crisis. Its return to operation comes as additional aluminium supplies enter the market. Chinese aluminium exports have also been rising despite a 30 per cent export duty, adding to concerns about the global supply-demand balance.

Hindalco, Vedanta and NALCO shares decline

The pressure on aluminium prices has extended to India's listed producers, with Vedanta Aluminium Metal recording the steepest decline among the three stocks, followed by NALCO and Hindalco Industries.

Hindalco Industries

Shares of Hindalco Industries Ltd were trading at INR 860, down 1.78 per cent from the previous close of Rs. 855.60. The stock opened at INR 871.05, reached an intraday high of INR 873.75 and touched a low of INR 852.00.

The company had a market capitalisation of INR 1,933.74 billion. An Aditya Birla Group company, Hindalco has integrated aluminium and copper operations alongside its global Novelis business. Its presence across alumina, aluminium and downstream products gives it a broader business mix than a company focused solely on smelting.

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Vedanta Aluminium Metal

Shares of Vedanta Aluminium Metal Ltd were trading at INR 344.35, down 4.19 per cent from the previous close of INR 359.40. The stock opened at INR 356.40, reached an intraday high of INR 356.50 and fell to an intraday low of INR 337.85.

Its market capitalisation stood at INR 1,347.13 billion. As the aluminium arm of the Vedanta Group, the company is one of India's largest aluminium producers. Its stock has been the weakest performer on the Nifty Metal index in October so far, declining by more than 13 per cent.

National Aluminium Company (NALCO)

Shares of National Aluminium Company Ltd were trading at INR 301.75, down 2.94 per cent from the previous close of INR 310.90. The stock opened at INR 303.05, reached an intraday high of INR 303.95 and touched a low of INR 293.70.

NALCO's market capitalisation stood at INR 553.74 billion. The state-owned company operates an integrated aluminium business spanning bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting. Its shares have declined by around 9 per cent in October so far.

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Axis Capital forecasts aluminium prices at USD 2,800/t in CY27

Axis Capital expects the global aluminium market to move into surplus in CY27 and has maintained a negative outlook on the sector. Its price forecast of USD 2,800 per tonne implies a further decline of about 7 per cent from the current level of approximately USD 3,020 per tonne.

The outlook for Indian aluminium stocks will depend on the pace at which Gulf production returns and the extent to which Chinese exports add to global supply. Investors will be watching these developments, alongside demand trends, to assess whether aluminium prices can stabilise or face further pressure.