$1.5b Quebec AP60 expansion puts Rio Tinto at heart of low-carbon aluminum race

The low-carbon aluminum market has stepped into a more competitive phase as producers invest in cleaner smelting technologies, renewable power and new downstream applications. Rio Tinto’s $1.5 billion AP60 smelter expansion in Quebec is the latest major development, adding around 160,000 metric tons per annum (MPTA) of primary aluminum capacity when fully operational by the end of 2026.

The project will lift total AP60 production at Complexe Arvida to about 220,000 MPTA while supplying lower-carbon aluminum to transportation, construction, electrical and consumer-goods customers.

The Quebec expansion is expected to cut emissions by approximately 290,000 MPTA compared with the older Arvida technology, strengthening the case for energy-efficient, hydropower-based primary aluminum production.

Join the fourth edition of the webinar "Hedging for recyclers - Become an expert in 6 hours" by Jorge Dyszel.

More importantly, the investment shows how competition in low-carbon aluminum is moving beyond sustainability claims. Capacity, smelting technology and supply security are becoming part of the equation as automotive, packaging, construction, electrical infrastructure and renewable-energy customers seek verified carbon intensity, recycled content and traceable supply.

Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto, Alcoa, Hindalco and Novelis are among the companies positioned to benefit from this shift. Producers lacking renewable power, quality scrap, efficient smelting technology or product-level carbon documentation, meanwhile, could face greater pressure as buyers become more selective.

According to DataM Intelligence, the global Low Carbon Aluminium market was valued at $90.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately $140 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2026 and 2035. The market covers both primary and recycled aluminum with demonstrably lower cradle-to-gate greenhouse-gas emissions than conventional production.

Europe leads value, Asia-Pacific drives growth

Europe remains the largest value market for verified low-carbon aluminum, supported by demand from automotive, packaging, construction and industrial sectors, alongside carbon-border requirements. Asia-Pacific, meanwhile, is identified as the fastest-growing region and the largest production base.

Low-carbon primary aluminum remains the leading product category, while near-zero and ultra-low-carbon aluminum represent the fastest-growing strategic segment. Automotive and EV lightweighting, packaging, renewable energy and electrical infrastructure are among the strongest areas of commercial demand.

This shift is also changing the competitive requirements for producers. Access to renewable electricity, high-quality scrap, low-carbon alumina, efficient smelting technology and traceability are increasingly important factors in securing customers.

Looking for secondary aluminum? Explore a wide range of aluminum scrap and recycled aluminum products from global suppliers on AL Biz.

Key developments shaping the low-carbon aluminum market in 2025-2026

How have other global competitors progressed in the low carbon aluminum race? Here is a quick recap.

The US

In September 2026, Rio Tinto and Prysmian supplied low-carbon aluminum electrical cables to an Amazon data center in Ohio. The aluminum was produced using ELYSIS inert-anode technology, which eliminates direct greenhouse-gas emissions from the smelting process. The project represents the first known use of inert-anode-smelted aluminum in a data center.

The companies also expanded the application of low-carbon aluminum into AI infrastructure through their partnership with Amazon. The initiative highlights how lower-carbon aluminum can help reduce the embodied carbon of electrical systems supporting the rapid expansion of data center, opening another downstream application for near-zero-carbon aluminum.

In July 2026, the US government introduced an incentive program aimed at encouraging companies to build, expand or refurbish domestic aluminum smelters. Approved companies can receive reduced tariff treatment linked to commitments to increase US primary aluminum production. The policy is intended to attract fresh investment and strengthen domestic aluminum manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the proposed $4 billion Century Aluminum-Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) smelter in Oklahoma advanced its development plans in September 2026 despite local permitting challenges. The proposed facility is designed to produce approximately 750,000 tonnes of primary aluminum annually. The project underscores renewed US interest in domestic aluminum capacity, although construction remains subject to regulatory and community developments.

Japan

Japanese beverage company Kirin announced in August 2026 that it plans to expand its use of recycled and low-carbon aluminum for beverage packaging. The company is evaluating aluminum produced using renewable energy, higher-recycled-content material and potentially carbon-free aluminum cans. Kirin expects to invest around ¥200 million between 2025 and 2027 in recycled aluminum, green aluminum and related lower-carbon initiatives.

The move forms part of Kirin’s broader lower-carbon packaging strategy. Alongside high-recycled-content aluminum, the company is assessing renewable-energy aluminum to address packaging-related emissions and support its wider Scope 3 reduction efforts. Kirin expects spending on these sustainability measures to rise substantially towards 2030.

In July 2026, Mitsubishi Corporation identified low-carbon aluminum as a strategic mineral-resource initiative and advanced feasibility work for a European smelting project powered by carbon-free electricity. The proposed project is intended to support lower-carbon aluminum supply while improving access to materials required for electrification, highlighting growing Japanese corporate involvement in global low-carbon aluminum supply chains.

Showcase your brand, aluminum recycling initiatives and sustainability vision in our upcoming magazine: Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium’s Commitment 2026.

Quebec expansion raises the bar for low-carbon production

Rio Tinto’s AP60 expansion adds another dimension to this evolving market. The project combines additional primary aluminum capacity with more efficient smelting technology and hydropower, demonstrating how producers can address both production growth and emissions intensity.

When fully operational, the expansion will add approximately 160,000 MTPA and take AP60 output at Complexe Arvida to around 220,000 metric tons. Its expected annual emissions reduction of approximately 290,000 tonnes compared with the older Arvida technology also strengthens the commercial proposition of lower-carbon primary aluminum.

The developments across Quebec, the US and Japan make a clear indication. They point to a market where low-carbon aluminum is gaining prominence and momentum. From EVs and renewable infrastructure to packaging and data centers, the next phase of market growth is likely to depend as much on supply-chain metrics as on aluminum itself.

Information credit: DataM intelligence 4 Market Research LLP