Aluminium foil exports down 6% Y-o-Y in April; Full year export recovery remains in question

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According to customs data, China's total aluminium foil exports (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 114,400 tonnes in April 2026, up 10.5 per cent M-o-M but down 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y.

Trade mode: In April 2026, China's aluminium foil exports via processing trade with imported materials were approximately 19,200 tonnes, accounting for about 16.8 per cent; exports via processing trade with supplied materials were approximately 7,500 tonnes, accounting for 6.6 per cent.

By country, the top five destinations for China's aluminium foil exports in April 2026 were Thailand (11,000 tonnes, 10.62 per cent), South Korea (8,700 tonnes, 8.4 per cent), Mexico (8,100 tonnes, 7.78 per cent), India (7,000 tonnes, 6.8 per cent), and Indonesia (0.64 tonnes, 6.2 per cent), with the remaining countries collectively accounting for about 60 per cent.

 The Southeast Asian market maintained stable contributions. Notably, exports to the Middle East showed initial recovery: exports to the UAE rebounded from 2,515 tonnes in March to 4,441 tonnes in April, and exports to Saudi Arabia rebounded from 4,868 tonnes to 6,387 tonnes. However, according to SMM survey, the recovered volumes were mainly rerouted via the Red Sea and represented only a small fraction of normal levels. Most clients had not yet resumed placing orders, and the Middle East trade chain remained far from normalcy.

Entering Q2, China's aluminium foil exports exhibited a typical geopolitically-driven cyclical boom:

On one hand, some double zero foil production lines switching to battery foil led to supply contraction in traditional packaging foil. Combined with overseas clients rushing to export due to concerns over prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade, enterprise production schedules had been extended to late June through July, with processing fees for double zero standard pouch export surging to USD 1,000-1,200 per tonne.

On the other hand, high processing fees themselves were already slowing the pace of additional client orders, and the widening price spread between domestic and overseas markets had not brought significant order growth (above 20 per cent), indicating limited actual shortages overseas, with incremental volumes driven more by precautionary restocking rather than a comprehensive recovery in end-use demand. For the full year, cumulative aluminium foil exports from January to April were still down 5.4 per cent Y-o-Y.

To recover the ground lost in 2025 (1.3406 million tonnes), subsequent monthly exports would need to reach 113,500 tonnes. In an optimistic scenario, if the strait blockade continues into Q3 and the export rush persists, full-year exports will reach 1.4 million tonnes; in a conservative scenario, if the blockade is lifted, leading to convergence of overseas market premiums and demand being front-loaded, full-year exports will only reach 1.3 million tonnes. The duration of geopolitical conflict and the extent of actual overseas shortages are the core variables determining whether full-year exports can "recover lost ground."

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.