Aluminium alloy futures closed up 1.64% overnight as bullish sentiment heats up

Futures: The aluminium alloy 2606 contract opened at RMB 23,755 per tonne during the night session and closed sharply higher at RMB 24,130 per tonne. In the early stage of the night session, prices moved sideways around the opening level with a steady trend. Mid-session, bulls pushed prices up rapidly, with futures surging to the intraday high of RMB 24,200 per tonne before pulling back slightly for consolidation.

Prices remained above the VWAP line throughout the session, maintaining a solid bullish structure. The daily chart closed with a 1.64 per cent bullish candlestick, with prices holding above moving average support and the KD indicator rising in tandem. Both trading volume and open interest increased simultaneously, with volume expanding and open interest rising significantly. Futures staged a strong recovery from prior losses, and bullish sentiment on the futures market warmed notably.

Basis daily report: According to SMM data, on April 15, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretical premium over the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2606) closing price at 10:15 AM narrowed to RMB 725 per tonne.

Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that on April 15, total registered warrants for cast aluminium alloy stood at 30,496 tonnes, an increase of 62 tonnes from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai had a total of 1,822 tonnes registered, down 90 tonnes from the previous trading day; Guangdong had 11,786 tonnes, down 60 tonnes; Jiangsu had 3,909 tonnes, down 29 tonnes; Zhejiang had 8,170 tonnes, up 151 tonnes; Chongqing had 3,603 tonnes, unchanged; Sichuan had 1,206 tonnes, unchanged.

Aluminum scrap: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminium prices were flat from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market remained largely stable overall, with minor adjustments in select regions and grades. The tightening regulatory stance on the "reverse invoicing" policy persisted, keeping compliance costs in the aluminium scrap recycling segment elevated, and actually available invoiced supply remained tight. Demand side, shipments of aluminium tense scrap and wrought aluminium alloy scrap diverged further. For aluminium tense scrap materials such as shredded aluminium tense scrap and ADC12 aluminium shavings, downstream scrap utilization enterprises including secondary alloy producers mostly maintained purchasing as needed with low inventory operations. For wrought aluminium alloy scrap materials such as baled UBC and 5-series/3-series plate off-cuts, downstream secondary plate and aluminium plate/sheet and strip enterprises were in peak production season, with relatively higher stockpiling enthusiasm. However, overall, high price levels combined with wild swings in aluminium prices continued to suppress procurement enthusiasm among scrap utilization enterprises.

Price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap: the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at RMB 3,023 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 1,733 per tonne.

Silicon metal: On April 15, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was flat from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was flat from the previous day; #521 was flat from the previous day; #441 was flat from the previous day; #421 was flat from the previous day; #421 for silicone use was flat from the previous day; #3303 was flat from the previous day. Silicon prices were raised by individual sellers in the Huangpu Port and Tianjin areas.

Markets outside China: Currently, ex-China ADC12 was quoted at USD 3,320-3,380 per tonne, with instant import losses continuing at around 2,000 yuan.

Summary: On Wednesday, the ADC12 market remained largely stable overall. Most enterprises adopted a wait-and-see stance with stable pricing, influenced by the convergence of aluminium price fluctuations, while a few enterprises slightly lowered their quotes amid weakening market sentiment and insufficient demand support. Overall, cost-side drivers were limited, demand-side performance was weak, and transactions showed no notable improvement and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed. In the short term, ADC12 prices may continue to move sideways, and attention should still be paid to aluminium price trends and changes in downstream procurement pace.

SMM cast aluminium alloy morning comment

Futures: The aluminium alloy 2606 contract opened at RMB 23,755 per tonne during the night session and closed sharply higher at RMB 24,130 per tonne. In the early stage of the night session, prices moved sideways around the opening level with a steady trend. Mid-session, bulls pushed prices up rapidly, with futures surging to the intraday high of RMB 24,200 per tonne before pulling back slightly for consolidation.

Prices remained above the VWAP line throughout the session, maintaining a solid bullish structure. The daily chart closed with a 1.64 per cent bullish candlestick, with prices holding above moving average support and the KD indicator rising in tandem. Both trading volume and open interest increased simultaneously, with volume expanding and open interest rising significantly. Futures staged a strong recovery from prior losses, and bullish sentiment on the futures market warmed notably.

Basis daily report: According to SMM data, on April 15, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretical premium over the most-traded cast aluminium alloy contract (AD2606) closing price at 10:15 AM narrowed to RMB 725 per tonne.

Warrant daily report: SHFE data showed that on April 15, total registered warrants for cast aluminium alloy stood at 30,496 tonnes, an increase of 62 tonnes from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai had a total of 1,822 tonnes registered, down 90 tonnes from the previous trading day; Guangdong had 11,786 tonnes, down 60 tonnes; Jiangsu had 3,909 tonnes, down 29 tonnes; Zhejiang had 8,170 tonnes, up 151 tonnes; Chongqing had 3,603 tonnes, unchanged; Sichuan had 1,206 tonnes, unchanged.

Aluminum scrap: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminium prices were flat from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market remained largely stable overall, with minor adjustments in select regions and grades. The tightening regulatory stance on the "reverse invoicing" policy persisted, keeping compliance costs in the aluminium scrap recycling segment elevated, and actually available invoiced supply remained tight. Demand side, shipments of aluminium tense scrap and wrought aluminium alloy scrap diverged further. For aluminium tense scrap materials such as shredded aluminium tense scrap and ADC12 aluminium shavings, downstream scrap utilization enterprises including secondary alloy producers mostly maintained purchasing as needed with low inventory operations. For wrought aluminium alloy scrap materials such as baled UBC and 5-series/3-series plate off-cuts, downstream secondary plate and aluminium plate/sheet and strip enterprises were in peak production season, with relatively higher stockpiling enthusiasm. However, overall, high price levels combined with wild swings in aluminium prices continued to suppress procurement enthusiasm among scrap utilization enterprises.

Price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap: the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was recorded at RMB 3,023 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tense scrap was RMB 1,733 per tonne.

Silicon metal: On April 15, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was flat from the previous day; oxygen-blown #553 was flat from the previous day; #521 was flat from the previous day; #441 was flat from the previous day; #421 was flat from the previous day; #421 for silicone use was flat from the previous day; #3303 was flat from the previous day. Silicon prices were raised by individual sellers in the Huangpu Port and Tianjin areas.

Markets outside China: Currently, ex-China ADC12 was quoted at USD 3,320-3,380 per tonne, with instant import losses continuing at around 2,000 yuan.

Summary: On Wednesday, the ADC12 market remained largely stable overall. Most enterprises adopted a wait-and-see stance with stable pricing, influenced by the convergence of aluminium price fluctuations, while a few enterprises slightly lowered their quotes amid weakening market sentiment and insufficient demand support. Overall, cost-side drivers were limited, demand-side performance was weak, and transactions showed no notable improvement and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed. In the short term, ADC12 prices may continue to move sideways, and attention should still be paid to aluminium price trends and changes in downstream procurement pace.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data