The flow of aluminium into the United States softened in the first half of 2025 as tariffs, weaker industrial activity, and higher energy costs reshaped buying patterns. Primary aluminium imports came in at 1.81 million tonnes, a touch lower than the 1.85 million tonnes recorded in the same period a year earlier — a 2 per cent decline.
The year started briskly, with first-quarter imports rising to 1.07 million tonnes from 0.91 million tonnes in early 2024 as traders rushed to move cargoes ahead of expected tariff increases. But momentum soon faded as the second quarter unfolded.
Monthly shipments fluctuated sharply. Imports surged in March to 438,000 tonnes, up from 270,000 tonnes the year before, but demand tailed off almost immediately afterward. January stood at 335,000 tonnes against 297,000 tonnes a year earlier, while February dipped to 298,000 tonnes from 344,000 tonnes.
By spring, the slowdown had become more pronounced — April fell to 238,000 tonnes from 330,000 tonnes, and June slipped to 277,000 tonnes, down from 340,000 tonnes in June 2024. The strong March inflows couldn’t counter a sluggish second quarter, leaving the half-year total marginally weaker overall.
Canada holds the lead, UAE and India step up
Canada remained the largest supplier, accounting for 52 per cent of total US aluminium imports, though its exports slipped from 1.4 million tonnes in early 2024 to 1.17 million tonnes this year. The United Arab Emirates, now the second-largest source with 10 per cent, boosted its deliveries to 289,000 tonnes from 181,000 tonnes, while India more than doubled shipments to 100,000 tonnes from 46,400 tonnes.
Mexico, which supplied about 6 per cent of total imports, increased its exports to 4,620 tonnes from 2,510 tonnes, while China’s contribution shrank sharply, down to 163 tonnes from 319 tonnes a year earlier.
China’s exports crumble under tariff weight
China’s decline was the direct fallout of a policy shift in Washington. The Section 232 tariffs on aluminium were doubled to 50 per cent in mid-2025 as part of efforts to protect US producers from what officials called unfair trade and global overcapacity originating from China.
With the higher tariff, Chinese aluminium became too costly for American buyers. The removal of prior exemptions and tighter customs enforcement further squeezed flows, prompting Chinese exporters to redirect shipments toward lower-tariff regions in Asia and the Middle East.
India finds openings as China retreats
As Chinese material disappeared from the US market, India seized the opportunity. Indian producers focused on conductors and downstream products that faced either smaller duties or benefited from tariff engineering to partially reduce costs.
A combination of competitive production costs, expanding manufacturing capacity, and adherence to US quality norms helped Indian aluminium gain traction. The shift also reflected a broader trend: US buyers seeking to diversify supply chains away from China. With existing trade agreements offering a cushion, India’s exports to the US more than doubled year-on-year.
Mexico builds on proximity advantage
Mexico’s aluminium trade with the US also grew despite the steep 50 per cent import duty. Its integration with the American market under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) gave it logistical and regulatory advantages. Producers adapted quickly — tweaking product portfolios and rerouting supply chains — to stay competitive.
But higher costs and policy uncertainty still weighed on profits. Efforts to secure tariff relief and protection for certain product groups have offered only limited relief so far.
UAE rides stockpiling wave
The UAE’s strong showing in early 2025 was largely driven by pre-tariff buying. With duties scheduled to rise mid-year, American buyers front-loaded orders to lock in lower prices. The UAE benefited from low-cost power, efficient shipping, and aggressive pricing, allowing it to take market share from other suppliers. But analysts caution that much of this growth may prove temporary unless future trade talks bring more stability.
Canada feels the strain of retaliation and costs
For Canada, the story was more complicated. Its aluminium exports fell under the weight of retaliatory measures, the same 50 per cent tariffs, and a seasonal slowdown in regional demand. Rising energy and production costs, combined with stronger domestic recycling, cut into export volumes.
Inventories piled up as North American demand softened. The result was a clear sign of supply chain realignment, as tariff pressures and trade friction reshaped the cross-border aluminium trade.
Demand slows across the region
Beneath the trade shifts lay a broader demand story. Aluminium consumption across the US and Canada fell by around 4.4 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Only foil escaped the downturn. Weakness in manufacturing and industrial activity curbed orders for mill products and casting ingots.
Tariffs raised import costs, making foreign metal less appealing, while the policy incentives for recycling drove substitution toward cheaper scrap aluminium. Scrap inventories in the US climbed by nearly 14.7 per cent, marking a clear turn toward a circular supply model.
Energy expenses were another major drag. Persistent electricity price increases forced several US smelters to curtail production or shut down temporarily, cutting domestic supply but also dampening import needs. Meanwhile, many producers had already stockpiled aluminium before mid-year, leading to a correction in inventories and a cautious approach to new orders through late June.
A market in transition
By mid-2025, the US aluminium sector stood at a crossroads. Higher tariffs, rising costs, and softer demand had upended old supply routes while giving room for new trade relationships to form. The early-year spike in imports gave way to a quieter second quarter marked by stock adjustments, policy uncertainty, and regional recalibration.
As the dust settles, the market remains driven not just by prices and production, but by political and policy forces — shaping who supplies America’s aluminium, at what cost, and for how long.
