Panorama of Aluminium Inventory During the Double Holiday: Mild Overall Buildup with Significant Regional Divergence
Following the 8-day Double Holiday, SMM monitored changes in China's aluminium ingot and aluminium billet inventories before and after the National Day holiday. In 2025, domestic aluminium ingot inventory increased by a total of 57,000 per tonne, up 9.6per cent, while aluminium billet inventory rose by 24,000 per tonne, up 20.9 per cent.
Combined aluminium ingot and billet inventories accumulated by 81,000 per tonne, an increase of 11.5 per cent. The inventory buildup generally aligned with pre-holiday expectations, with no surprises. In early October, the domestic aluminium industry chain inventory exhibited the core characteristics of "controllable total volume and regional divergence," as detailed below:
Aluminium Ingot Inventory: Holiday Inventory Buildup Falls at the Lower End of Expectations
Following the extended holiday, SMM statistics show that aluminium inventory in mainstream consumption areas in China reached 649,000 per tonne on October 9, increasing by 57,000 per tonne compared to pre-holiday levels (September 29). On a y-o-y basis, inventory decreased by 28,000 per tonne compared to the same period last year but increased by 23,000 per tonne compared to the same period in 2023.
SMM believes that the 57,000 per tonne inventory buildup during this year's 8-day holiday was basically in line with, or slightly lower than, the pre-holiday expectation of 60,000-80,000 per tonne, which may have a positive impact on maintaining relatively strong aluminium prices post-holiday. The 9.6 per cent increase in inventory is at an average level over the past six years.
By region, Gongyi saw a holiday buildup of 28,000 per tonne, exceeding pre-holiday expectations, mainly due to concentrated shipments from Northwest China attracted by price advantages in central China before the holiday, with arrivals increasing by 40per cent compared to expectations. Wuxi recorded a holiday buildup of 11,000 per tonne, significantly lower than expected, as arrivals were relatively low, and warehouse withdrawals remained resilient during the holiday.
Foshan's holiday buildup of 20,000 per tonne precisely matched pre-holiday expectations. Shanghai bucked the trend with a slight destocking, becoming the only mainstream consumption area with a decline in inventory, while other regions remained basically flat compared to pre-holiday levels.
Overall, the inventory buildup during this year's 8-day holiday is relatively optimistic. Although some in-transit cargoes and delayed warehouse entries may cause minor disruptions in the 3-4 days after the holiday, leading to a slight inventory buildup by next Monday, SMM expects aluminium ingot inventory to be around 650,000-680,000 per tonne in the first half of October, based on historical data, warehouse feedback, and input from aluminium smelters.
However, with the proportion of liquid aluminium expected to rise further in October, aluminium ingot supply pressure is limited, and demand may become the key factor influencing future inventory performance. For now, SMM anticipates that domestic aluminium ingot inventory may resume a destocking trend in the second half of October. Still, attention should be paid to the actual post-holiday demand performance as the peak season progresses and whether high aluminium prices will impact subsequent warehouse withdrawals.
Aluminium Billet Inventory: Holiday Inventory Buildup Marks the Smallest Increase for the Same Period in Three Years
Turning to the aluminium billet inventory. According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium billet inventory increased to 139,000 per tonne, up 24,000 per tonne from pre-holiday levels, primarily due to the holiday impact and a sharp decline in withdrawals from warehouses caused by logistics disruptions, leading aluminium billet inventory to enter a buildup phase as expected. However, with an increasing proportion of road transportation in the market, the increase in social inventory of aluminium billets was smaller than the 28,000 per tonne rise seen during the same period last year. In terms of withdrawals, domestic aluminium billet withdrawals totalled 57,000 per tonne in the week before the holiday, up 9,500 per tonne WoW, reflecting a recovery in stockpiling sentiment for aluminium billets ahead of the holiday, while only sporadic withdrawals occurred during the holiday period.
SMM believes that current market conditions feature both recovering arrivals and restocking driven by rigid demand. On one hand, inventory accumulated at aluminium billet plants is gradually being shipped out; on the other hand, aluminium prices fluctuating at highs are suppressing speculative demand, which will somewhat inhibit restocking based on downstream rigid demand. Looking ahead, the September peak season has passed, giving way to the October peak season. With continued rigid procurement, aluminium billet withdrawals are expected to be supported. However, against the backdrop of aluminium prices holding up well, which dampens market consumption sentiment, aluminium billet inventory is projected to maintain a sideways movement, fluctuating within the range of 130,000-150,000 per tonne in the short term, with a rapid destocking trend unlikely to emerge by mid-to-late October.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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