The global aluminium industry is still changing on all fronts, including the primary aluminium, bauxite, and alumina markets, driven by shifting trade policies, production hurdles, and creative approaches to production. From India's Chandrayaan-3 mission revealing aluminium on the Moon, China's increasing primary aluminium imports to the strong price movements of the LME and SHFE contracts, opportunities and complexity abound. At the same time, the bauxite and alumina markets were subject to environmental impact assessments, production increases, and export bumps that are shaping global supply chains.
Weekly Upstream Recap by AL Circle Pvt Ltd
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India, with its Chandrayaan-3 mission, has marked a groundbreaking innovation on the Moon by detecting the presence of aluminium for the first time. Scientists, with efficient utilisation of the Pragyan rover's Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) instrument, have found aluminium and other crucial metals like calcium, iron, chromium, titanium, manganese, silicon, and oxygen at the Moon's South Pole. To uncover more on this, click here.
China's net imports of primary aluminium surged in July 2025, rising to nearly 207.3 thousand tonnes, which significantly marks a month-on-month 20 per cent and year-on-year 86.8 per cent growth. On the export front, it remained relatively modest at 41,000 tonnes. One of the major countries exporting primary aluminium to China is Russia, contributing nearly 76.8 per cent, reaching 190.8 thousand tonnes. To know more about China's primary imports and exports, read here to get the detailed numbers.
India and the UK have recently signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which is expected to alter the outlook of the Indian aluminium sector, removing the UK import tariffs, which previously ranged between 20 and 10 per cent. Various industry experts are predicting the potential of the FTA to boost Indian aluminium exports. However, this optimism is tempered by the impending implementation of the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2027. As a carbon-linked tax, CBAM may erode much of the tariff-related gain, potentially undermining the competitiveness of Indian aluminium in the British market. Read here for further details.
In August 2025, the US doubled tariffs on aluminum and steel imports to 50 per cent and exempted refined copper, which shows us that the industries serve different parts of economic and strategic action. Macquarie analyst Marcus Garvey said that unless there is massive support there is no economic logic with building new aluminum smelting capacity. The tariffs were supported by Century Aluminum, which resumed production of over 50,000 tonnes of aluminum at its Mt. Holly smelter and invested USD 50 million to restore capacity to normal, which is anticipated by mid-2026. The US Geological Survey data reported the decline in domestic aluminum production which in 1995 was 3.35 million tonnes, which dropped to just 670,000 tonnes in 2024. Much has changed in the market as these developments indicate. To unfold more on this, continue reading.
The ongoing trade dispute between China and Canada escalates upon the consultation request made to the doors of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This consultation request was made upon Canada's recent imposition of trade restrictions on aluminium and steel. Furthermore, the measure is contested concerning tariff-rate quotas on five categories of steel imports from the non-FTA countries. Nonetheless, the shipments exceed quotas subject to a 50 per cent surtax alongside the flat 25 per cent surtax on aluminium smelted and cast in China. To know the broader impact, read this.
In H1 2025, Chalco recorded a 2.16 per cent year-on-year increase in total profit totaling USD 1.83 billion and a 0.81 per cent growth in net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to USD 1.00 billion. Operating revenue increased by 5.12 per cent to USD 15.95 billion, attributable to growth in production and sales of primary aluminium and alumina, as well as better cost management. Chalco also attained a five-year high for alumina self-sufficiency. Chalco's strategic focus on technological innovation and upgrading has strengthened its competitive advantage, especially in digital transformation and high-end material production. Learn more about Chalco's report here.
RUSAL has produced A7 aluminium consistently under its own proprietary inert anode technology. This is the first concrete step towards the commercial scale application of a process that will be carbon free, significantly reducing GHG emissions and impurities in aluminium. Inert anode electrolysis produces oxygen, not carbon dioxide, substantially reducing unwanted impurities in the aluminium. RUSAL's definitive and successful trials with its inert anode technology have confirmed the operational stability of its industrial-scale inert anode process. Uncover more details here.
Press Metal announced a 6.9 per cent year-on-year revenue growth to USD 1.78 billion in H1 2025, with profit after tax and minority interests amounting to RM 945.3 million, up 3 per cent over the previous year. Although sales volumes increased, profitability was dampened due to higher raw material (including energy) costs and subsequently lower associate contributions along with additional taxes. Tan Sri Paul Koon, CEO commented that while there are indications of relief from global trade tensions and trade problems, economic uncertainties will still shape market expectations moving forward. To dive into more details, check here.
Aluminium price holds steady with SHFE contracts closing at RMB 20,705 per tonne (USD ) and LME at USD 2,609 per tonne, marking September to October as the peak season. The steady aluminium price movement is owed to the tighter availability of scrap and the improved macro sentiment, which rose from China and Canada trade talks, upholding a stronger US GDP growth rate. To know details about the domestic ingot inventories, read the story.
On 22 August 2025, the LME aluminium cash price settled at USD 2,589 per tonne, a 0.72 per cent increase over the previous session. The opening stocks of aluminium increased as well, up 2.85 per cent at 478,725 tonnes. The three-month contract prices also gained alongside the metal's cash price, with the bid at USD 2,586.5 per tonne and offer at USD 2,587.5 per tonne. Forward prices for delivery on 26 December continued to inch upwards with a bid at USD 2,637 per tonne and an offer at USD 2,642 per tonne. Uncover more LME aluminium price related information here.
As the week comes to an end, LME aluminium price showed a marginal slip with the cash bid softening to USD 2,614 per tonne from USD 2,616 per tonne and the offer falling to USD 2,615 per tonne from USD 2,618 per tonne. Three-month bid and offer prices each dropped by 0.25 per cent, landing at roughly USD 2,609.5 per tonne and USD 2,610 per tonne, respectively. Discover more here for further details on the LME aluminium price.
At present, under a rigorous environmental review, Alcoa's proposed expansion of the bauxite mining operation spans nearly 67 sq km of Western Jarrah forest. The expansion project is under review, which will follow the GHD-engineered study that flagged 22 contamination pathways to Perth's water supply. This project will aid in serving nearly 2.3 million people, where the key focus will be on key risks, highlighting sewage-borne pathogens, hydrocarbon spills, and soil erosion, potentially overwhelming treatment plants. To know more about the project, read here.
EGA has exempted its bauxite mining operations in Guinea, which followed the expropriation of the government concerning its concession that includes infrastructure, associated contracts and especially the mines. Exit of EGA from Guinea will affect approximately 400 million tonnes of reserves spanning 690 sq km. To deep dive further into the details, read here.
One of Australia's big mining companies, Metro Mining, is on the road to achieving an ambitious goal of producing 7 million tonnes of bauxite by 2025. The company has witnessed significant growth in Q2 FY2025, where its shipments surpassed the year before by 19 per cent. The attributed growth is coined because of the infrastructural upgrades, proactive maintenance and robust resource reserves. Find out more information on the company's goal here.
With consideration of the data by the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China witnessed a year-on-year surge of 64.3 per cent in alumina exports within the first seven months of 2025, where the total reached 1.57 million tonnes. An increase in China's alumina exports directly reflects on the global alumina market, which is highly pushed due to the rising domestic production and strategic initiatives for exports. Read in detail here about China’s alumina market.
China's alumina market is still building up its inventory, and the weekly operating rate is 83 per cent, which is a slight drop because of routine maintenance work. The national alumina index is RMB 3,244.97 per tonne. Prices in southern areas like Guangxi and Guizhou range from RMB 3,300 to 3,380 per tonne, which is an increase of RMB 10 per tonne from the week before. On the other hand, prices in northern provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi are between RMB 3,180 and 3,240 per tonne, which is a drop of RMB 15 to 20 per tonne from last week. To dig deeper, click here.
The National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) of Jamaica has confirmed that the recent UC Rusal alumina train disaster in St. Catherine's Bog Walk Gorge had minimal effect on the environment. The event, which saw three hopper cars fall into a gorge near the Rio Cobre River, prompted concerns because it was so close to an important water source. NEPA's analysis, however, showed that the alumina spill was limited to the embankment's base and did not pose a hazard or have an impact on the quality of the water. To get a clearer picture of the incident, read more here.
Overall, the aluminium value chain is experiencing a robust period of activity, with trade agreements, tariffs, and strategic investments in production all playing a part in market conditions. Stakeholders need to pay attention to price changes, supply changes by region, and regulations to fine-tune operations to capitalise on growth opportunities in primary aluminium and downstream products.
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