
The dollar index jumped 0.54% to 95.61 overnight as investors bet global trade tensions and a robust US economy would support the currency. LME base metals closed mixed on Thursday. The day’s trading for aluminium closed at US$ 2118 per tonne yesterday. Aluminium slumped 2.2%. LME aluminium plunged to a low of US$2,068.5 per tonne overnight and closed at US$2,069 per tonne on Thursday night. We expect LME aluminium to trade rangebound at US$2,070-2,090 per tonne today.

As on August 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2117 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2118 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2136 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2138 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2173 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2178 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1154050 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 832775 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 321275 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2123.17 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2117 per tonne on August 8, from US$ 2148 per tonne on August 7.
The SHFE 1810 contract jumped above the 60-day moving average to a two-month high of RMB 14,885 per tonne yesterday. The 1810 contract broke its rangebound trend of around RMB 14,500 per tonne since mid-June. However, the SHFE 1810 contract fell overnight, touching a low of RMB 14,585 per tonne as longs covered their positions. The impact of strikes at Alcoa’s Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia turned out to be a manageable one as Alcoa would hire temporary workers. SHFE 1810 contract is expected to trade at RMB 14,600-14,800 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 50-10 per tonne.
Key things to watch today include China’s total social financing and M2 money supply in July, US consumer inflation in July and Baker Hughes data on US weekly oil-rig count.
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