09 AUGUST 2011smm
SMM Brief Review - 2011/8/9 Aluminum Futures: Gap Lower, Stop and Rebound
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Plunging global financial markets overnight dragged SHFE aluminum contract prices to gap lower by over 4% at RMB 16,510/mt on August 9th. At the beginning of trading, all aluminum contracts fell to a stop, which soon reopened supported by buying at low prices and attempted to recover the gap. In the afternoon, with inflow of long capital, SHFE aluminum prices stood steady at RMB 17,000/mt and hit to an intraday high of RMB 17,340/mt. SHFE aluminum prices closed slightly lower at the tail of trading at RMB 17,265/mt the 60-day moving average, up RMB 155/mt or 0.91%. After SHFE aluminum prices rallied, the shorts exited the market, which attracted the longs to buy at lower prices with SHFE aluminum prices gaining despite falling of other metals prices. Positions of most active SHFE aluminum contract also rallied by 4,254 lots, which boosted market confidence at RMB 17,000/mt. SMM expects SHFE aluminum prices will keep struggling at the 60-day moving average in the short term while recovering previous gaps.
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